Asahi: Canada to allegedly be offered spot in GCAP

Noah Note

Japanese Newspaper Asahi Shimbun has reported that Canada could be soon invited to the Global Combat Air Programme in the coming months. The paper reported earlier today that Canada could soon be asked to join the multinational fighter project as an observer member.

To Quote:

“Multiple Japanese government officials have revealed that the "observer countries" will be able to obtain information from the three countries in order to consider future participation in GCAP. This includes purchasing and manufacturing, and depending on the conditions, they are also expected to be open to participation in the development stage.

Japan, the UK, and Italy are planning to hold a defense ministers' meeting in the UK in July and are considering announcing Canada's observer status. However, according to Japanese government officials, whether Canada will purchase the jointly developed next-generation fighter jet will not be decided at the time of observer status, and Canada will make the decision afterward.”

Japanese Minister of Defence Shinjirō Koizumi also spoke on these report at a press conference earlier today. Quote:

“Regarding your question, I would like you to understand that I cannot answer it as it involves relations with the countries involved. That being said, speaking in general terms, the GCAP has been developed with cooperation with allies and like-minded countries of Japan, the UK, and Italy in mind, and we intend to work in cooperation with the UK and Italy to make the GCAP an even better program in terms of cooperation with third countries.”

Canada and Japan have been slowly building up their defence relationship over the last year; most significantly, the two countries signed a new Equipment and Technology Transfer Agreement back in January. This agreement, in relation to GCAP, sets out the framework required for the transfer of technology, intellectual property, and information related to GCAP.

It also builds off the new Canada-Japan Comprehensive Strategic Roadmap from earlier this month. Under that roadmap, Canada and Japan agreed to further strengthen defence cooperation, including exploring opportunities to enhance interoperability between our respective militaries and to explore ways to promote cooperation in building our respective defence industrial bases.

Of course, Minister McGuinty has been very engaged with meeting his Japanese counterparts, the most recent being just two weeks ago when he met with Mr. Koizumi. While these talks were not specifically GCAP-related, it is understood that it was a conversation point.

TNSR was the first outlet to report that Canada was exploring a potential sixth-generation fighter all the way back in June of last year. While FCAS was at one point considered, it now seems that GCAP is the primary program that Canada is looking to participate in.

Of course, GCAP itself is fairly ambitious. The Japanese need to have a replacement for the F-2 by 2035 means that the project is on a tight deadline to deliver. Up until now, Japan has been very hesitant to expand the program.

This hesitation in allowing additional partners has primarily been related to the potential loss of workshare, a very tense part of the GCAP initiative. The three partner nations have already come to an agreement on the split of workshare between them, and Japan, looking to safeguard her volatile aerospace sector, has been hesitant to reopen the discussion to others or risk additional potential players stealing work in the future.

With Canada looking to maximize economic benefit, a hardline Japan presents an issue, if not an outright barrier, to any such attempt. My expectation was that this would be a barrier; however, it seems that Canada is deciding to look at a more incremental approach through observer status, with the hope of potentially securing economic benefit down the road.

Of course, there is zero commitment to buy at this time, nor do I have it on any authority that Canada intends to announce a GCAP commitment anytime soon. An observer status, though, does put us in the room and does create a potential pathway for us to acquire fighters in the future.

Seemingly, the government is willing to take some economic loss not being a partner (or taking a junior role in the future) to get into the club, so to speak. This was always an option, though I expected it to be one that wasn't exercised so quickly. Although, recent interest from other parties such as Germany, who is dealing with the slow collapse of FCAS, might have galvanized efforts to join the club first.

Looking at the July timeline, it is reasonable to assume that Canada could be first on the list of future observers. That itself could be a future negotiating stick should others come to the program in the future, though I can't personally comment on what has been discussed by the ministers.

Safe to say, though, that even if the 2035 timeline does hold, Canada is unlikely to receive her first fighters until 2040 or beyond. That is again assuming that zero delays in the introduction of fighters happen between now and 2035. The UK is still presenting a holdup when it comes to releasing funds as it awaits its own Defence Investment Plan.

While relatively minor in the grand scheme, so long as the funds actually come soon, it does present an early example of a potential hurdle in the GCAP program that could negatively affect Canada if we put too much faith into it. Multinational defence projects are inherently volatile and prone to collapse, especially if it is a Europroject (French followers, please don't be mad).

For all the hate it gets, the F-35 is an example of such a multinational effort being able to deliver. It is extremely hard, though, to replicate that success without a stable anchor (like the United States) to lead through the program and ensure it is properly supported.

While I am confident in the GCAP nations as individuals, I am still hesitant to trust the timelines and promises being offered for GCAP as a whole. If we are looking at this from an economic standpoint, there is also no guarantee that Canadian suppliers would be potentially integrated beyond our own hypothetical fleet.

And while I am not one to really hold up over the economics of a fighter fleet, it is something that has become dominant in the fighter discussion, and something that the general public is being pushed to think about in any of these discussions. Public opinion, especially for such a program, is important to its success.

Trying to sell on a very expensive sixth-generation fighter jet that holds potentially no promise of industrial or economic benefit? That will be tough to go to the Canadian public, the majority of whom have little to no knowledge of the defence ecosystem, and ask for their blessing to continue on such a purchase.

Of course, we can't speak about this until we have finer details on what this observer status gets us, and what is expected of Canada. At this point, we just don't know, so it's really hard for me to discuss the possibility in detail. Of course, as many of you know, I have been highly supportive of Canada establishing a pathway to a sixth-generation platform.

Ideally, a combination fifth/sixth fleet would be ideal. Now, how this above relates to the fighter review? I can't say any more. Discussions on a sixth-gen have been happening separate from the ongoing F-35/Gripen debate in government. It is not being put as a third option as far as I know.

However, it would be foolish to discount the potential influence it could have on a choice. GCAP, no matter what, will not come soon enough to viably replace the Hornets. That is a fact. We will need some sort of fleet large enough to replace the CF-18 by ~2032.

I have a feeling that a government very high on GCAP could see it as a pathway to scale back on the F-35. The idea is to leverage the theoretical economic and industrial investment of producing something like the Gripen here, and use that industry to support a wider Canadian push into GCAP.

Will that work? I don't think so. It is overtly hopeful to expect that one can just transition a fourth-generation supply chain to suddenly support a sixth-gen one, especially a platform like GCAP that aims to exploit many new and experimental technologies into its platform.

That, of course, comes with the fact that at this time, speaking on the benefits and industrial benefits of something like Gripen is extremely difficult when we don't have their package available. That isn't me trying to dismiss people; I just can't talk when I don't have the information available to me.

However, I could see a potential government high on both ideas make the connection and form the basic concept in their head enough to convince themselves of its viability. That is especially true if you see GCAP as a worthwhile replacement to the F-35, where Gripen acts more as a potential bridge to get to that sixth-gen.

Supporting both an F-35 and GCAP air force will be a difficult strain financially for the RCAF. Similarly, supporting a three-fighter fleet of Gripen, F-35, and GCAP borders on fantastical thinking. That could be mitigated by a very small F-35 fleet that you only envision as a temporary measure until GCAP, but that itself also presents challenges and raises questions on if the financial investment into supporting a very expensive fleet that you only see as temporary to remain in service a few years is worth it.

So, there are a lot of questions there regarding a potential fleet mix. Maybe the RCAF can pull an RCN and just get what it wants anyway lol, but I don't see it. That makes this a bit of a conundrum in terms of what exactly the future fleet could look like. There are solutions, don't get me wrong. Most involve the Federal Government being willing to invest and financially support different outcomes like a three-fighter or 35/GCAP fleet.

A three-fighter fleet has numerous other issues beyond the financial angle that we could get into, but a hypothetical 35/GCAP fleet is possible with the right commitment and early investments to ensure the RCAF is sixth-gen ready. That, though, comes no matter what GCAP option we choose, really.

Either way, this would mark serious progress on Canada’s attempts to join GCAP, and opens another angle from which Canada’s future fighter fleet will need to be discussed. I will work to continue to investigate on this subject from a Canadian perspective. Hopefully, as it comes out, people will be a bit more willing to discuss the subject openly!