Canada could reportedly get up to an 80% share in SAFE projects, Euractiv reports

Well, colour me surprised, and very wrong about my previous expectations. We can once again thank Euractiv for keeping on top of all things SAFE recently. They've been knocking it out of the park, and remain basically the only major EU publication covering this topic in depth.

Today it's being reported that Canada, despite previous reporting, might get a significantly higher potential share in SAFE projects than expected. While we have all been working under the assumption that the French cap at 50% would go through, draft documents obtained by Euractiv reportedly lay out the plan for Canada that could see us granted up to 80% shares in potential projects.

Here is the quote itself:

According to the draft proposal, Canadian manufacturers will be able to produce up to 80% of the value of components of any final product financed by loans within the 150 billion euro SAFE program.

Under the SAFE program, manufacturers from third countries can usually produce slightly more than 35% of the value of components of the final product.

It should be noted that this is merely a proposal. The final document has not been submitted to EU ambassadors for approval at this time, and so it remains just a possibility. While EU officials met today to discuss a multitude of defence-related topics, including Canada and SAFE, it's unknown whether this specific proposal was brought up at this time.

As part of Canada’s entry into SAFE, the government will be paying a €10 million fee. We do not know exactly how this number was determined, however we do know that expected participation was considered, among factors like GDP, among others. This number will be reviewed annually and reportedly adjusted accordingly. It is not a fixed rate.

It's a major win for Canada, assuming it does happen and greatly opens up the possibilities for Canadian OEM to capitalize. Under the previous expectations, Canadian manufacturers were only expected to be granted a 50% share in potential projects. While this was fine for many cases, that 50% cap represented a major roadblock to majority Canadian solutions, especially since the percentage is based on value.

This new percentage represents not only a significant increase, but also opens the door for ‘true’ Canadian products to now participate in SAFE procurements. Of course, this benefits some more than others. Companies like Bombardier, for example, are prime targets that could benefit from allowing a majority Canadian product in terms of value. Others like Roshel, Cellula, Kraken and many more are also given significant breathing room to offer products as part of SAFE.

Of course, it isn't confirmed, not yet, and so we should take it with a grain of salt. However, to secure such a high potential share would be a massive win for Canadian Industry, as well as a federal government that has leaned heavily on the potential financial gain from participating in SAFE to help inject capital into a relatively limited Canadian market.

For Industry this represents a massive opportunity. As of now, Canada maintains a near-exclusive third-party participation in SAFE, something that already positions us above others when it comes to outside partners. If we are able to, on top of that, secure a large potential share on projects, Canadian Industry can better present its solutions against the highly competitive outside market consisting of countries like Korea and the UK, both of whom continue to be limited in the amount of native content they can offer.

We'll have to see how things pan out, however, it's a step in a great direction and I'm excited to see where the number lands. Let's hope for that 80%!