The question on how much Canada is going to be paying into SAFE has been an active discussion here since last week, when the UK was reportedly asked to pay upwards of $6 billion for entry into the program.
While not confirmed officially, Euractiv tends to be a very good source for this stuff, and so I deem it worthy enough to initially report here. Of course, we don't know the exact calculation that the EU is using to come up with this number.
We have a vague idea of what is happening, but nothing that we can reverse calculate ourselves. A lot is tied to the value we are expected to get out of participation.
Canadian arms exports to Europe represented about 31.5% of Canada’s non-US defence exports in 2024, at a value of $789,411,023.89, according to Global Affairs Canada in their 2024 Annual Report on Strategic Goods and Technologies Pursuant to Section 27 of the Export and Import Permits Act.
Of course, this isn't the only deciding factor in the calculation; however, it does set a good baseline for where expectations were. Other factors, like GDP and again the expected value of Canadian participation, are also being factored into the decision.
Take this with a grain of salt, as always; however, Euractiv is a legitimate outlet with legitimate sources, and so I deem it credible enough to give a mention. It's a far lower fee than I was expecting (somewhere in the 100-300 range was my broad guess), but in line considering our low export value currently.
Keep in mind, also, that there is a broad outline of what EU states plan to spend the funding on. The deadline for submitting was on November 30th, so I don't know if that could be a factor in this negotiation as well.
So it's hard for us to analyze exactly how they've cone to this figure. Obviously the UK has a much higher value than us, and is paying accordingly though oir numner does feel comically low. I won't complain though. These things can get very complex and personal. So unless detailed info comes out we will likely never have the whole picture. I hope it does.
The Commission will reportedly present the proposal for an agreement to EU ambassadors when they next meet at Wednesday’s Coreper. Perhaps we shall learn a bit more then, or at least get confirmation.
Like you I don’t know the details but I think there are important differences in terms of what the UK government and Canadian government bring to the table. Loosely speaking, the UK has more competitive overlap with countries like France who are EU members. Many of the industrial associations with the US companies may also be assisted advantage politically. The more receptive German response is probably the result of certain joint adventures which I’m sure you know about more than I do but are tempered by the fact that they also have competitive industries. Canada on the other hand has more niche specific abilities which are less likely to be competitive and also there is a scale of the buying power of the Canada is appearing to bring to the table. This is guess work of course, but I think Canada offers more value add and more specific capabilities and like I said they’re purchasing potential in the future. The British on many levels are in a very different situation.
Lastly many of the other negotiations on youth mobility and other elements are not going well either due to domestic political pressures. It is highly unlikely that the European Union is going to allow them to pick and choose in isolation as much as the UK might like. Again this is guess work on my part , but in fairness I have a very old Ph.D. in European integration which gives me a sense of what negotiations can be like at this level… Probably/possibly.🥸😜