Could CAMI Shift to Defence Production? Maybe

Noah Note

I love fun timing. Less than a week after we discussed the possibility of Hyundai leveraging GM's CAMI plant in Ingersoll as a potential offset for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, we get some fun discussion on the topic from the CBC.

The CBC sat down with Unifor Local 88 plant chair Mike Van Boekel to discuss the future of the CAMI plant. During the conversation, the topic of a potential defence-related role came up.

To quickly quote the article, which you should read yourself:

"I know they're looking at a potential military vehicle that could come into our plant," Van Boekel told host Andrew Brown. "I think they're trying to get an agreement with GM to put something in here."

"It's pretty secretive," he said. "It looks like there’s a market for it — we just need a green light from the government to go ahead and do it."

Of course, I don't have any personal details to gossip about here. However, this does give some indication that GM has some sort of plan to expand on its defence-related production here. I assume this would come in conjunction with a win with a corresponding contract.

It’s not exactly what I had in mind last week discussing tying in some sort of Korean partnership. I should note that both Hanwha and Hyundai have long been in talks with GM about joining up as part of Team Korea; however, I don't know to what capacity or role they would play.

That is something between all of them, outside my purview. In these kinds of discussions, it's best to remember not all relationships will be defence-related. The Canadian government is more concerned with general offsets than anything. They do not fully care if they're defence-related or not.

That's what led to my speculation last week. It felt like an easy direction to go, even if unlikely overall given Hyundai's cold attitude to the idea. Evidently, this doesn't seem to be the case. The discussion seems tied to General Motors themselves.

This actually makes it a bit easier to pinpoint what exactly is being discussed. As you can imagine, GM doesn't maintain a very deep roster of vehicles for defence purposes. In fact, it's basically limited to just three.

These are:

• The Chevrolet Colorado ZR2-based Infantry Squad Vehicle

• The Silverado-based family of Light Utility Vehicles, including their LUV proposal and Next Gen Tactical Vehicle

• The Suburban Shield, an up-armoured Chevrolet Suburban

Of course, the Canadian Army is no stranger to GM vehicles. The LUVW MILCOTS, my favorite green-coloured pickup, has been a mainstay of the fleet for decades and is up for replacement as part of the Light Utility Vehicle project.

Phase I will be done through a Standing Offer for up to 700 Commercial-Off-The-Shelf vehicles to replace the "Milverado" fleet, with deliveries expected to start this year.

Phase II, in which GM is also participating, will replace the existing G-Wagon fleet with up to 2,200 Protected Mobility Vehicles. An Invitation to Qualify is currently open for Phase II.

The ISV was selected back in July 2024 as part of Phase I of the Light Forces Enhancement project to equip Canada’s Light Forces with a light, rapidly deployable off-road vehicle as part of the Multinational Brigade in Latvia.

Phase II of that project aims to acquire a solution for the wider Canadian Army. We should be getting something related to it this year. There have been some rumors that the numbers have fluctuated; however, the most recent had been for up to 222 vehicles.

Of course, we are not here to talk about these projects themselves but about CAMI. I don't even feel like there's real speculation needed here, unless they plan a major surprise. It takes about five minutes to get a good guess at what this 'secret' vehicle is.

The GM LUV is essentially a Silverado, either painted green or modified and unarmoured. Oshawa already maintains Silverado production, and there is little reason why they wouldn't take the lead here. It's already in production here. So, it's out.

That leaves the Colorado-based Infantry Squad Vehicle as the frontrunner here. Not only has the federal government actively been pressuring GM to do defence-related production here, but expanding on the ISV order through Phase II of LFE was already widely expected by everyone.

Whatever way you feel about the ISV and its class of vehicles, LFE shows no sign of disappearing. While we can debate if the ISV is the optimal solution, the Federal Government clearly recognizes the easy win of getting LFE secured while also getting some potential work, even temporary, at CAMI.

As said in the article, this order wouldn't replace the loss of the Brightdrop vans, but the hope is that it would provide some temporary work and relief to the currently idled plant.

Now, I won't be the one to deny that here. I am an emotional softy. We have followers of TNSR here who have lost their jobs in these automotive layoffs. So deep down, if something like this would get them and their families a break, then I wouldn't argue against it. I want to see people secure and safe.

However, LFE alone, without a plan afterwards, would be a short solution at best and would only buy a limited amount of time for a permanent solution to be found. In the current environment, those kinds of solutions are rare and subject to a highly volatile market.

Perhaps the hope is that the upcoming CUSMA review might provide some clarity and stability for manufacturers to start committing to future plans. I am not so hopeful in such negotiations, especially when it comes to automotive.

From a people perspective, I welcome this. I want people employed. I want people to be safe. I am a sensitive person at times; I admit that. I care for people as a whole and always want to be supportive of efforts to help them.

From the analytical side of things, though, I remain highly skeptical of the stability of such a deal, even as a temporary fix to get us through to a deal with the Yanks—a deal I fear is not coming anytime soon.

You need to do whatever you can in a crisis. We can't afford the economic or strategic impact of losing large chunks of our automotive sector. It is one of the key industrial sectors that we have to leverage in helping build up the Defence Industrial Base. That's something we can't afford to continue to let idle away to nothing.

So, I am happy to hear that people might be able to get back to work; however, I wait to see what the details of this plan include and how far they truly go.