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Harry Neutel's avatar

I work for a provincial government in fleet management, and I wanted to address the 15 lifespan you mentioned.

15 years on a consumer grade vehicle is optimistic. Yes, they are capable of doing it, but many simply will not last that long. Or rather, making them last that long will turn them into money pits.

You have mentioned the desirablity of rolling procurement several times, so I'm fairly sure we are on the same page here, but I wanted to throw out some specific numbers.

We currently expect our vehicles to last 10 years and 250,000km. We amartize their capital cost over 8 years, so that early replacement is not a crisis, but that is the goal. At one time, government policy was 14 years and 300k, which was probably not a great idea, but politicians are going to squeeze.

We have 2 user groups who can exceed the number of kms in a 3 or 4 year period (ministy of highways transporting crews around the province to work sites, and prisoner transport between jails and courts in different cities), so we have to make special plans around those vehicles. For highways, the client is responsible for rotating the high mileage vehicles into lower mileage roles before they are completely worn out, so that they can last out the amortization period. For prisoner transport, we just have to keep maintaining the vans until they are replaced after amortization, regardless of the mileage, as the prisoner pods are $40-60k up fitting. Then we have enforcement vehicles that are lots of idling and sudden acceleration, and often need replacement engines before they are ready to be replaced. And then we have vehicles that sit at an office, and get used once or twice a week to go to a meeting, and are still functional after 15 years.

10 to 15 % of vehicles are going to need replacing before 10 years are up, either due to accidents writing them off, or misuse, or seeing constant extreme duty. Probably 50% of the vehicles will last 15 years, with some of them getting pricey to repair in the last several years, so there should be some allowance for decommissioning them when it makes sense after 10 years, rather than to keep dumping money into them to meet an arbitrary number of kms or years. And the remaining 35% will last longer than planned for, and they should be kept around until they justify replacing based on rust or a serious expense like an engine or transmission.

If we are not procuring certain number of replacements each year, the fleet is going to have periods of time where there are not enough vehicles to meet current needs. They need to maintain a comfortable margin, so vehicles can be shifted around to where they are needed at any one time, and fresh vehicles are being annually fed into the fleet to make up for losses over the year.

I don't know how realistic this is. Military procurement seems so tied to one time purchases of "enough" vehicles, with a plan to purchase more when they wear out... But that's not how fleets work! They are organic things that are constantly going through attrition. If they are not going through constant renewal, there will be periods of starvation.

All that to say, I hope we see some sort of plan for continuous fleet replenishment. I assume places that haven't underfunded their military for the last 35 years have a grip on how to do this right, so how do they manage it?

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