Defence Industrial Strategy coming next week and other fun stuff from Ottawa

Press Release

​Welp, it seems the time is finally here. I was going to put stuff in the newsletter; however, Dave has gotten to it before me. The Government of Canada plans to release its official Defence Industrial Strategy within the next two weeks.

​While Dave seems fairly confident for next week, I have heard various timelines given that stretch out to the next two weeks, so I am hesitant to commit to a date. One of the nice things about being in Ottawa has been being able to talk to people about things directly!

​Of course, if you follow me, you’ll know that the strategy was coming. We had a basic timeline of end of January to mid-February that the Strategy was expected to be released. Everyone else I have talked with is fairly confident in the "two weeks," so by this point, it is more of an open secret. That was a surprise to me.

​The Defence Industrial Strategy has had a bit of a chaotic life. The original idea was to release it in October, then around the budget, and then before Christmas. While Budget 2025 did mention the Strategy, as well as outline some of the funding coming in relation to it, it obviously did not contain the meat of the Strategy itself.

​The file has been a bit of a sticking point between ISED and the DND, allegedly, with both bouncing it back and forth between each other in trying to draft a Strategy everyone could be happy with. We discussed that a few months ago, and since then, things have seemingly been smoother.

​The DIS will serve as a framework for how Canada collaborates with and supports the defence industrial base, as well as outline the core industries that the federal government wishes to invest in. The DIS is not a "one and done" document. It is a living, dynamic strategy that will regularly be shifted and updated as needed.

​Does that worry me a bit? Yes. Absolutely. Dynamic strategies can be great tools for reacting to change, as well as providing an easy pathway to respond to shifts in needs and demands. However, a strategy that is too dynamic risks missing the ball by being too non-committal and changing before benefits can be realized.

​However, I cannot say how this will work in practice. We will have to see. We have vague outlines of many of the key industries—such as Aerospace, regular space, and AI—that will be at the forefront of the policy. However, the details are in the meat, and sadly I have not been able to stealthily obtain a copy.

​We will see what happens there and what the strategy brings. I will wait until details are out there before jumping on it and making statements. However, it is coming very soon.

​With rumors going around that both Ministers McGuinty and Joly might be gone in the next few weeks, combined with the DIS, the next few weeks will be a major shift in Canada’s defence industrial landscape.

​Of course, the rumors of both Ministers being gone has been in the cards since just before Christmas—at least when I first heard it. I was shocked in Ottawa to see how many people had seemingly accepted it as fact that they will be out in the upcoming shuffle.

​I will not be taking such a certain stance myself because I am cautious; however, it certainly doesn't feel like a rumor. Of course, Minister McGuinty was never in this for the long run. He has always been positioned by many, including myself, as a caretaker of the role.

​He was knowledgeable about the topic, already established in the community, and carried years in the public service. He was an easy slot at the time and has served his role admirably. He has been a fine MND. However, he was never going to be in this role forever.

​As to who takes his place? Naturally, Secretary Fuhr will be the leader and the most accepted option. The DIS is out, the DIA despite it all is slowly building itself, and perhaps his time has come to step up to the main portfolio.

​I can't imagine anyone taking the Secretary of State for Defence Procurement spot after him—none that pop to mind in this hypothetical. It is very likely it goes with him. It always felt like a role built for Stephen, inevitably being laid to rest as he moved up the ladder.

​As for Minister Joly, I won't speculate to who takes her slot, but nonetheless, whoever does will hold a key spot in Canada’s defence industry and, in turn, ongoing procurements. A cabinet of Defence Ministers, as Mister Lagassé would say...

​Anywho, I say these here and not in the newsletter because I am still skeptical. The DIS feels fairly firm now, but any shifts in cabinet I will always take with a grain of salt. Call me overly cautious coming out of Ottawa. It's been great for hearing thoughts—certainly better for verifying information—however, I remain more on guard coming out of it than normal. I do not think I am built for the Ottawa environment. Luckily, I am actively on my bus back home where I can get back to my regular programming.