EKOS: From Afterthought to Imperative: Support for Defence Spending Has Reached Historic Highs.

Press Release + Noah Note

[Ottawa – February 16, 2026] Support for defence spending has reached historic highs. Once a lower-tier concern for Canadians, defence has surged to a near-pinnacle level. This shift is driven by deepening anxieties about the United States and growing fears over Canada’s sovereignty, security, and national identity.

There is clear support for sustained increases in defence investment. By a 12-to-1 margin, Canadians say we should be spending more – not less – on defence. There is broad support for meeting the NATO benchmark of two per cent of GDP, and fully 70 per cent support the escalation to five per cent by 2035 (note that our last poll pegged support at 47 per cent; the difference is likely due to the added context in the most recent iteration, rather than a sudden shift in support). Support for increased defence spending cuts across partisan lines, though it remains comparatively lower among NDP voters, Quebecers, and those under 35.

Crucially, this support is tied to how defence dollars are spent. Our last poll showed a strong preference for linking defence to national projects and investments. Canadians increasingly view defence as a driver of economic growth and innovation. There is a near-consensus that a strong defence industry is an economic necessity, while a similar proportion believe innovations in defence technology can deliver spillover benefits across the broader economy.

There is also a clear appetite for reshaping defence procurement and supply chains. Seven in ten Canadians (69 per cent) say Canada should shift away from reliance on U.S. military supply chains. Fully 91 per cent agree the Government of Canada should be prioritizing domestic production in defence acquisitions, while Canadians vehemently reject the argument that cost should be the dominant consideration. There is perhaps no better illustration of these sentiments than the dramatic preference for shifting focus from the F-35 to the Gripen.

While there are some potential fault lines in the current defence spending consensus as time goes on, public judgement on this is remarkably clear: defence is no longer discretionary. It is increasingly seen as central to Canada’s sovereignty and economic resilience in an uncertain world.

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Methodology

This survey was conducted online using EKOS’ unique research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population, random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly; they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling (each panellist has a non-zero chance of appearing in the sample).

All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates.

The field dates for this survey are January 29-February 6, 2026. In total, a random sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The data tables for this survey are available here. The questionnaire is available here.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are subdivided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, gender, age, and education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

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Noah Note: While it's only one source I do think it is important to share these kinds of public pollings when it comes to defence. They are already fairly rare in themselves, and EKOS does a lovely job of trying to highlight public attitude in a way that we can visualize.

Despite some of my own worries it does seem that the public attitude towards defence continues to swing in the supportive direction, quite significantly in many regards.

No doubt that this continued support is only extended more and more in the timeline by continued events globally, primarily to the South. I have been a noted worrier about how long the pendulum will favour public support for defence, and while my previous prediction was wrong (thankfully) I do still expect it to swing back eventually.

Of course the more certain forces continue to push unfriendly and concerning narratives to the public, the more that people will remain high on defence spending.

Most notablly in all this is the continued view of the public that defence can be used as a valued tool for generating investment. Historically, as the DIS will lay out tomorrow, the defence industry has been an overcontributive industry to both economic generation and workforce development.

While we often debate the economic benefits here (a lot) a piblic perception that defence provides a valuable economic tool in Canada’s box will go a long way towards shifting people from reactionary supporters to long-term investors in the industries future.

That helps further stretch the timeline for when government feels defence is no longer a priority, and in turn helps keep the financial tools and federal interest firmly flowing. Of course the added consequence is the long-term damage to the perception of American suppliers.

They will seemingly continue to feel the public pressure turned against them, the same force keeping rhe public interested also the one cutting them off at the heel as they are lumped into the general attitudes and whims of the present administration.

That mentality will likely long continue to exist beyond it, and for how long who knows. How that affects overall procurement? I don't think we’ve seen. Much has been made to be business as usual. Of course if you read last weeks newsletter even that might be in question.

Nevertheless I wanted to show this off, and provide some fun numbers for all of you to think about.