Italian MOD comfirms Canadian Interest in GCAP
News Reaction
Italian MOD Guido Crosetto has confirmed that Canada has requested for information about GCAP, something that TNSR reported all the way back in June.
While details have remained scarce for us since our Initial reporting we ginalky have some confirmation that the Canadian government has been exploring the possibility of joining along to a Sixth-Generation program. The discussions reportedly peaked over the summer, with both GCAP and FCAS explored as options.
While Canada continues to engage on the ongoing status of the F-35, I am of the belief that this exists separate to the review as a longer-term project of Interest. I have spent the last several months trying to gather information about this, but sadly this is about all I know at this time.
There has been no technical discussions as it related to workshare, cost, or timelines. All discussions seem to be in the very early stages with GCAP being seen as the most likely option on the table right now. However with discussions with Saab ramping up there is also the possibility that Sixth-Generation discussions are going on there. I see it as very likely.
Of course GCAP itself is fairly ambitious. The Japanese need to have a replacement for the F2 by 2035 means that the project is on a tight deadline to deliver. Speaking of the Japanese, they remain the primary obstacle to the expansion of GCAP.
Jaoan has been hesitant to allow additional partners due to the potential loss of workshare, a very tense part of thr GCAP Initative. With Canada looking to maximize economic benefit, a hardlined Japan might present an Issue, if not an outright barrier in an attempt to protect its fragile aerospace Industry.
That does not prelude us from buying mind you, however true partnership remains a far and dostant prospect. FCAS in the meanwhile is currently burning before our eyes as many Europrojects do. That might be to Canada’s benefit if Germany decides to deviate to a potential Swedish Partnership, thoughbthats pure hypothetical and not based on ongoing discussions.
One thing is that, assuming Gripen is acquired and Airbus remains the main German prime, both would have significant existing operations in Canada, providing more opportunity to extract exonomic benefit.
As always I will continue to hunt for Information on the elusive Canadian Sixth-Gen! I'll get what I want eventually.
Interesting perhaps Canada will do the smart thing and aquire a reasonable amount of F-35s (60+) and immediately following start to procure (60+) 6th gen like the GCAP to truly hedge their bets without having to procure a 4+ gen gripen-e. If they time it right and production starts after 2035 then perhaps we could start receiving the 6th gen immediately after receiving the final F-35s. Just a crazy thought.
I suspect the govt may be feeling it has painted itself into a corner with the F35 review, as expectations are high for some kind of change in direction even if that isn’t the best option. Joining GCAP allows them to continue the F35 purchase while claiming diversification away from US. We’ll probably have to buy our way into GCAP, but workshare may be less important to us than just sovereignty over maintenance and upgrades.