Joly speaks on the F-35 Review.

Minister Joly has come out and said the quiet part out loud. The future seems to be either an F-35 fleet or a Mixed-Fleet of F-35 and Gripen-E.

For those of you who follow us, you will know that we reported several months ago about the Ministers vocal support for a Mixed-Fighter fleet, and more so her support of Saab.

It was a fairly open secret about who had supported and didn't support a Mixed-Fleet. There was a far bigger push from Joly and her team over those in the DND, if thats a shock to anything.

However a few questions remain to me:

• What about Saab has seemingly made then a preferred choice over others? How much of their original offer is still on the table?

• Why has there been little discussion on Sixth-Generation programs?

On a personal note, I doubt that the government will get what they want out of Lockheed. We also reported that Lockheed had discussed other incentives to sweeten on buying the F-35, including the possibility of doing something on the Cyclone and with FLIT.

Lockheed has been in active discussions about the future of the Cyclone as the DND looks at potential future options for the fleet. That is ongoing. I also heard that they mentioned the potential for future Incentives based off the TF-50. That has also reportedly been discussed.

However its doubtful that we will see major concessions given on the F-35 itself. That remains to be seen, but Lockheed has no shortage of areas it could leverage in 'throwing a bone' to the Government. There are many programs Lockheed, and Lockheed Canada are Involved in.

To Quote Myself from the August 4th edition of This Week in Defence:

“Lockheed has reportedly presented a package to the federal government as part of ongoing Fighter Review discussions. No idea what this package is but it will apparently include new investments in the Canadian market, increased Canadian supply into several different programs, and something involving the TF-50. Take this with a big grain of salt. These kinds of rumors are flying but this is from someone I trust.”

I still don't know what Lockheed has thrown out, nor how talks have changes since August. These discussions have been fsirly close to the chest, and no one has been willing to talk about it much to me.

As we wrote about in our discussion on the Economics of the F-35, the best course of action economically is to remain in full commitment to the F-35. Canadian Industry is already contributing to the F-35 program, spread out over a global fleet that will eventually include 1000+ airframe.

It is an active, future-proofed production line that shows no signs of slowing down. Each of those F-35 contains millions of dollars in Canadian content. Canada’s Arctic partners are almost all running the F-35 with some, like Denmark, committing to ordering even more F-35 just this Friday.

The risk of setting up a local production line for a fourth-generation fighter, under the promise of future export opportunities and potential Investment (which might be tied to contracts for other programs) is a big risk. Thats a production line we will have to work to support, sustain and keep open if export orders never come and our orders dry up.

That is a big risk, as we discussed before. That is a major risk that might end up trapping us in a situation where we are paying big to keep a limited production line open.

That also isnt speaking of the potential for delays that this would present, nor the fact that the Hornets don't have forever. That might be mitigated if the F-35 order remains relatively large enough, say 66 or such, but the risk to that production line is still there

There is much we don't know about this review. We don't know what companies offered. We don't know what criteria the government fully has. That makes it hard for someone like me to discuss.

Giving a company a Mandate of Heaven after only a few months of review also irks me. How can we get companies to commit to packages with only a few months ths notice? How could a company like Dassault offer a package with limited time to find partners? How can Saab commit to its plans several years after the competition ended?

By that point promises feel empty. They feel fake. You can throw out anything you like with a review like this, doesnt make an actual plan real. It doesnt deal with the needed Infrastructure, set-up, IP, tech transfers. All of which remains in the air.

Again its hard with not knowing anything. It's hard without knowing requirements. Maybe im being to pessimistic, or maybe people already have plans and work starting. I don't know, but my concerns exist and I want them noted.

We are in the middle of a tense period. CUMSA negotiations are likely to ramp up in the next few months, and things are heating up. It is very likely the F-35 will be a hot topic here.

I dont know when a choice will be made. That is the Prime Minister’s to know. Whenever he decides is when we'll get it. The choices to me feel clear though.

On a side note, I apologize if this disturbs your Thanksgiving. It was my intent to take the weekend off but I wanted to quickly put this out. Happy Thanksgiving to all of you. If you are alone these holidays, remember you always have me, and my door is open.

Love you all!