Let's gossip about Canada's donation of 400+ armoured vehicles to Ukraine

Noah Note

Most of my days revolve around a few topics, and make no mistake, no one likes talking about the same thing a bunch quite like Noah (it's why you all love me, after all. That and my cuteness), but sometimes it is nice to change things up a bit.

Admittedly, I don't talk about Ukraine much. Perhaps there is more I could be doing there, and more that could be said. Certainly, if the need to take from the conflict is needed, I'll bring it up. However, it is unusual that I have to do more than give it the occasional mention.

For those that missed it, back on Tuesday, Canada announced its latest aid package to Ukraine. One of the largest yet, this new package reaffirmed Canada’s financial commitment with $2 billion in military assistance promised for fiscal year 2026-27, as well as a donation of over 400 armoured vehicles.

The bulk of this package will be made up of 383 additional Roshel Senators, the largest order so far from the Canadian government themselves, as well as 66 LAV6s. This represents the largest single package of vehicles Canada has donated to Ukraine since the start of the war.

And don't worry, I'm not here to criticize or cause controversy on this point. I, for one, am proud and happy to see more donations come Ukraine’s way, especially when it is a commitment to actual capabilities from Canadian industry. I am especially happy at the large size of the package involved.

This latest package has a few fun caveats to it. For one, it is likely to handily tip Roshel over the 2,500 vehicle mark for Senators donated to Ukraine. That is a massive achievement for a company that was relatively small and unknown before the war. I think it's, well, a testament to what Roshel was able to achieve in the first years of the war as Canada’s most successful contributor to Ukraine.

It's also the largest package that the Canadian government has given to Roshel in that time. It beats out the previous 200-vehicle package from 2023. Despite being one of the major Canadian players in Ukraine, most of the Senators funded for Ukraine have either come from other benefactors or the Ukrainian government themselves.

The Senator is the most numerous Western vehicle in service with the AFU, and was one of the earliest examples of aid given to the country. Canada has long stood as one of the first and more numerous supporters to the Ukraine effort, so to see another large-scale order tying into each other is nice to see.

Of course, Roshel now has operations in Ukraine, but their facilities in Brampton continue to play a major role in their support effort. With LUV still a few years out, supporting industry through Ukraine is a valuable way to ensure that companies like Roshel are not left waiting for domestic contracts to support themselves.

Roshel is probably one of the companies that stands to benefit heavily from the Defence Industrial Strategy. I know I've said that a lot the last week, and I'll continue to say it for the next few months. As the most established Canadian player in the LUV suppliers, they certainly have a major stake to claim here.

Of course, I believe most people expect them to win LUV; I have long said that it is theirs to lose, and I stand by that. It makes almost too much sense. A proven, Canadian platform that helps bolster Canada’s automotive industry, one that the CAF already has a large like and affinity towards? Rarely do I say that companies have a clear path to victory, because I hate putting it out there, but I feel everyone has accepted that Roshel will take it.

So, of course, I am happy to see a homegrown talent supported, and I hope future packages are also used to help support industry to this scale. I congratulate them on this latest contract and hope that we can see more supporting other sectors.

But the Senator isn't the only thing here. We also have 66 LAV6s, the first such donation Ukraine has received. As far as I am aware, these are fully turreted LAV6s and not the press releases mixing them and the ACSV around. I know some of you asked me that in the Q&A, so I thought I would answer here anyways.

Of course, that doesn't stop the rumor mill from running. A few of you have asked me if these will be stock or new LAV6s, and at this time, I can't fully answer that question. What I can say, though, is that gossip around is fairly juicy on the topic the last day.

So why not address it and add fuel to the fire? The current rumor running around is that these 66 LAV6s are actually the 66 hulls from the now-dead LRSS project being sent over. For those who might not know, LRSS is dead. It isn't public or such, but the project has obviously faced significant delays and technical issues that have pushed it into the realm of no longer being feasible to continue.

What replaces them? I have no clue. Lots of people have thrown ideas out; in the immediate, utilizing COTS platforms like tethered drones seems to be an option on the table. What a long-term replacement looks like? I don't know.

The rumor seems entirely based off the numbers aligning, and a bunch of planned LRSS LAVs now having no home to be found. To be clear, I can't confirm or deny it; however, I can say I have heard those rumors from several people, and at least one person I trust very much is very confident this is the case.

Of course, I have reached out but have yet to receive an answer yet. I guess time will tell. Maybe I'll have enough for Monday to put a follow-up in the newsletter. Until then, though, it's best to keep these strictly as gossip from Noah and nothing more.

I do have to gossip sometimes. That's in my bratty nature. I try not to do it so much anymore, but when you have tea like this, you just can't help but at least bring it up. It’s far too fun to not mention at least once! Either way, I am very happy with this commitment.

No matter the what and where, these vehicles play a key role in the sustainment of Ukraine’s credibility. These vehicles are better used to support their effort than sitting around, and in Roshel's case, it provides a dual benefit of supporting industry in between potential contracts. As has always been the case.

The formula didn't change. The benefits have been here since day one. We just oftentimes have either forgotten ourselves or could only contribute so much. Now that we're in the 2+ percent environment, and as new equipment draws closer to service, we can now explore the possibility of significantly larger aid packages.

Ideally, an ALAV-LAV6-Ukraine pipeline would exist in the future, cycling LAVs down as support as we refresh the wider fleet over the next decade. One of the advantages of continuous sustainment is that you aren't running platforms as long or as hard as you traditionally would, leaving them in far better condition for potential things like storage or stripping, but also for potential support to allies in need.

Even more ideally, we would have several pipelines like that. I would argue you could do that for a number of different platforms in the future. That's likely a conversation for another day, but I think there's a ton of potential there. Maybe I am just overtly ambitious in my idea, but I like to imagine the path is there.

Either way, this is a package to celebrate, and I'm happy to see it come to fruition. Let us hope the next one is just as good.