Let’s talk about Billy and the F35

I’ve put off talking about this till I was a bit more rational. I didn’t want to jump in this like others and say something stupid like I did on Twitter.

I don’t think I need to explain what this is about. You know. I know. Bill Blair said some choice words that are now echoing into mass hysteria about the future of the F35. I had hoped that we were done with this debate, but here we are.

I can’t fault anyone here. Blair is just repeating what was asked of him, and Carney has ample reason as an outsider to defence to question these kinds of things coming in.

let me get this out of the way. what do I think was asked? I think Carney laid out three things:

• He wanted to know options for things, as a precaution and because of worried about American reliance

• Carney wants to use defence as an economic tool and so wants to put priority on domestic benefit, similar to now but at a more aggressive end, think hunting capabilities, like jet manufacturing.

• He wants to get a standing on things.

In practice, these are all good things for someone with little knowledge of defence. He wants a big book on info to read up on and get an idea of a plan. He wants to push for certain things.

Blair tried to convey this, and made it sound the worst way possible, because Carmey doesn’t have a real defence plan. He wants to gather info and do a review of things first.

So in that situation, he is now put to basically repeat what was said, which when Carney says it to Blair sounds one way, but Blair saying it sounds like a much more serious situation.

This could very well be Carney just gathering information, and asking for what exists out there, what options, what can we do and what can’t we. He isn’t a defence guy, so he might legitimately asking so he is more knowledgeable and confident in choices.

Do I think Blair messed up here? Yes. He should have honestly avoided bringing it up in this format, it’d even brought up during the interview what the message would be. This was NOT the place to say Carneys initial thoughts. He isn’t a defence guy. He hasn’t talked to everyone. He’s still relatively unknown to a lot of this.

Really it’s on Blair to help educate him as the longtime minister, and by now he should know better than to convey these things to media in this way.

Do I think we will see changes to the plans? No. Not at all. The Air Force has made it clear what they want, and that the F35 is the aircraft needed to stay on top. They are willing to take that risk.

We have the first sixteen ordered, and have spent billions preparing the training ecosystem and infrastructure to handle the F-35. This isn’t even speaking to the Hornet fleet, which is already on borrowed time as is.

Do we want to rush order something quick just to get them replaced, at risk of getting something subpar? Of course not. I can understand the concerns of everyone, and why everyone wants to take their jabs, but even a mixed-fleet takes valuable resources and money away from other projects.

Maybe there is more hope in a future fighter like GCAP, KF-21 block III or FCAS in the mix, but that is for a time after the F-35 are set to be in service, potentially not until the 2040s.

There is nothing wrong with wanting to be more knowledgeable on a topic, and that’s probably what Carney asked Blair to do, gather up info, come back to him and report on what people said so he is caught up and in the loop.

Blair did basically say this. What he said, truthfully, isn’t really that serious. I want the PM to ask these things, and to be properly informed. It means he has an interest in knowing.

He isn’t asking for options to replace, he’s just asking what’s available and why the 35, at least as I interpret things. The issue is that him asking Blair this question makes sense in that regard, but when Blair says it to the public, we get all of this controversy. Same message but different interpretations.

Until something comes of this, I would consider this a nothing burger. It isn’t worth your concern.