Happy Monday!
Big weekend over here at TNSR! We officially launched Opening the Conversation, our 2027 roadmap, and I'm excited to finally start sharing where TNSR is heading next year.
BUT this is the Q&A, and we have questions to answer. This week is a bit of everything, LUV, bases, a whole lot of helicopters, CCA, and yes, horses. Anywho, lots of great questions this week, so don't let me hold us up!
As always, you can find the link to ask questions for next weeks Q&A over here on Slido!
Q1. Is HDFM being accelerated? I’ve heard rumours that the Leo 2s might be parked because their serviceability sucks and they are costing too much to sustain.
I won’t speak on the current LEO fleet, not right now, but I will say that HDFM has been discussed for acceleration, but, as I know it, these were just casual conversations.
Keep in mind, the current timeline is already a bit of a speed-up of the timeline we had at the beginning of the year, but still a bit farther out than what we would like. The 2A6M fleet is also undergoing a $76M conversion to the 2A6M C2 CAN standard. The conversion replaces most of the remaining analog systems and modernizes the optics and fire control to match the 2A4M.
That isn’t to say the fleet is in great shape; it ain’t, and we definitely want things delivered sooner, but right now I wouldn’t treat it as anything set.
Q2. Are the negotiations with TKMS going well... is there a sense that they will come to a deal as expected?
I’m not privy to the state of negotiations, nor will I gossip much about them. I can say that TKMS is really hoping they can get things worked out by the end of the year, but most on the Federal side of things are more confident on a 2027 deal. Both sides, as I know it, are still very happy with how things are going, and more news about potential investments related to CPSP is expected soon.
Q3. Will LUV have an RFP, or will it just be awarded out of the blue now?
LUV went to limited tender. Both GM and Roshel already have the respective documentation. As a limited tender, we won’t be getting any of that. The goal is still to award in the next few weeks, a bit later than desired originally, but they apparently planned some extra trialling and such that stretched the timeline.
Q4. Should the Defence Team keep the two modern Challenger 650s alongside the new Global 6500s to maximize lift, rather than wasting perfectly good airframes?
The CC-144D are apparently fantastic aircraft. I know someone who knows them well and has a deep love for the Challenger. Unfortunately, while they will remain in service for a while longer, I don’t see them having a long-term future.
The RCAF and the Federal government, at the core, have a requirement for a longer-range, larger aircraft to support SOF support, VIP transport, and medevac. The Challengers sadly don’t have the reach and size that is desired from us. That is true both domestically and moving people/delegations internationally.
The CC-144D were never meant as a true replacement, but as a stopgap to deal with the fact that the then-in-service A were quite literally unusable globally. This, on the other hand, is meant as a true replacement for the Challenger fleet. The Global 6500 represents nearly 65% more range, 50% more endurance, and a near 50% increase in cabin volume compared to the Challenger 650.
The Challengers also lack several desired capabilities that the new fleet is buying us, such as military GPS, Mode 5 IFF, secure comms, and a self-protection suite. What likely happens from here is that the D will be sold off in the aftermarket for cheap, so they won’t be wasted. They’ll just go to a new home.
Q5. With the rumoured growth of the CAF, is there enough real estate for everything? Is there a need for new bases, or significant expansion of existing bases?
This debate happens every day, and repeatedly you’ll get different answers from different people. Canada is already undertaking major expansions across our bases as is. DCC awards so many contracts in a month for everything small and big that they have to put it out as a multi-page PDF!
Phase 2 of the North Park Armoury Rehabilitation and Modernization Project is underway. That will rehabilitate the armoury’s remaining walls, roof, foundations, and windows, as well as upgrade the armoury’s interior. The Sherbrooke Armouries Recapitalization Project also kicked off construction last year!
Work has started at CFB Trenton for the CC-330 Husky fleet that will see a bunch of new infrastructure constructed, including a new two-bay hangar; the resurfacing of the runway, aprons, and taxiways; a new fuel depot; and training infrastructure in anticipation of the fleet’s arrival. Construction also kicked off at Gagetown on the $871 million first phase of upgrades, covering roads, ranges, bridges, and new facilities at Camp Petersville.
We’re seeing over $30 billion committed through NNBI and NOSH at Inuvik, Yellowknife, and Iqaluit, as well as 5 Wing Goose Bay. Whitehorse and Resolute were also added to the Northern Operational Support Hub network, with smaller nodes at Cambridge Bay and Rankin Inlet.
Work also began on the new Land-Based Test Facility at Hartlen Point for the River-class destroyers. That will be a significant piece of sovereign infrastructure, allowing us to manage testing and integration of the River-class combat systems domestically.
We’ve seen procurement movement too on STTC infrastructure in Edmonton, the revamp of DRDC’s Ottawa Research Centre at Shirleys Bay, the future Drone Innovation Hub, and the new Combatant Training and Integration Centre in Esquimalt for the River-class destroyers.
There is so much going on that it is absolutely overwhelming sometimes. I could keep going on lol, but rest assured that things are happening. For new bases? That’s always discussed; same for new armouries. Those are never not discussed by folks, but that’s mostly people talking, not actual funded plans in many cases.
The Navy has, funny enough, been proactive here. Vice-Admiral Topshee raised the idea of another base not too long ago, and obviously the Navy has big dreams of expanding the Naval Reserve to new communities across the country. That is the largest such expansion on that front being discussed.
Of course, whenever an armoury comes up, it’s usually followed by lots of arguing, so I digress there. There’s definitely a lot of debate, and fighting, on if new bases and such are needed, but right now they’re mostly just people arguing.
Q6. Does the H225M Caracal have a chance to be chosen in any of the nTACS phases?
I’ve come to realize that a lot of you really love the H225M. Not that I’m complaining, I like it too, but I’m surprised how much love it gets. Unfortunately, there isn’t really a place for it. It’s a bit too big for what we want out of a medium-lift platform.
Something like the H175M, AW149, or Blackhawk is more along the lines of what we want. The 225M is a BIG boy. It pushed into the Heavy category a bit too much, and once we get there, we would rather just buy more Chinook, which is also the plan.
Sadly, I don’t see where the 225M fits into the current plan. Hell, a lot of folks didn’t even want a new Medium! They would have rather had a light/heavy mix. That was another popular idea last year that didn’t win out.
Q7. Any idea when the next batch of RCDs will be named? Any predictions or favourites?
Sadly no! I have not heard any rumoured names that I would consider official. Keep in mind, everyone is a nerd, and I know a bunch of people from all corners who have their own list of desired names.
Yukon and Ottawa feel like natural picks for many, but honestly, I don’t know if we see another round of Ottawa or not. Saskatchewan is another.
Churchill is another popular one, and I would be shocked if Athabasca was left off the list. Cowichan is another common one, and I have heard a few express interest in Nahanni. A lot of those, though, will come with deeper consultations with Indigenous partners.
Right now, I think things are still fairly open to what gets chosen. Lots of ideas!
Q8. Further LUV question: has there been any DND interest in other variants? I.e., ambs, recovery, true LCav, etc.?
Oh gosh. If I could go over all the variants I have heard mentioned by folks? We would be here forever. I legitimately think we could double the LUV number off of people’s dream variants alone.
Mortar, Ambulance, UAS/UGV Vehicles, Long-Range Strike, LCav, Recovery, CUAS, RECCE, Anti-Tank platforms, Rotary Support, MRT. If the Feds want to spend money, just ask folks what LUV variants they want.
You’ll reach 5% in a month! There is endless conversation from top to bottom on more LUV variants, mostly cause the OG scope is so freakin limited in what we asked for.
Q9. What’s the word on the RCAF getting new flight suits? Would be crazy if pilots are still wearing the old flight suits when the F-35s arrive.
The RCAF’s replacement project is known as the Flight Operations Clothing Ensemble, or FOCE. If my timelines are right, it originally started conceptualization in 2024 and is still in the design and development phase. I believe they ran some trials over the last few months? I would have to get back there.
IOC is set for 2028 and FOC for 2029. The fire-resistant version of CADPAT MT is also slated to roll out to FOCE users in 2028, with 8,500 sets planned, last I heard from anyone?
Q10. Will we ever leave the Ottawa Convention and acquire personnel mines? Or just stick to items like claymores?
Never. Ever. I have a standing 10-dollar bet with someone on it. We ain’t ever leaving the convention we helped champion and is named after our capital. I will stand by that.
Q11. Noah, any news on progress integrating another 8-cell VLS for batch 2 of the RCD?
No, and I wouldn’t bet on hearing about it for a while. There is still a lot of conceptualization being done on Batch II. We just got the first Batch mostly settled, and effort is still focused on making sure Batch I is supported. While early work among the Navy is looking at Batch II, I doubt we hear anything on such a decision, least of all a commitment, for a few years.
Q12. So, do Roshel and GM now have more competition for any of the other LUV phases with Tatra potentially wanting to build factories in Canada?
Correction. While Tatra might have interest, that doesn’t mean independent manufacturing. They could look, like Daimler, to work with a partner like they are looking at with Roshel. Neither, do I believe, is any Canadian move in vehicles set in stone from them, not that I know.
Anywho, LUV is set between GM and Roshel. It has already been decided to limit tendering to these two. No one else can join at this stage.
Q13. Are you able to shed light on what exactly the Advanced Homemade Explosives Training program is? That’s quite the attention-grabbing RFP title.
Certainly. The DND is looking for someone to run Advanced Homemade Explosives (Level 3) training. The course itself is for Improvised Explosive Device Disposal operators who teach the CAF’s intermediate homemade explosives course, and for members serving in EOD and IEDD units.
Graduates qualify as HME Operators who can act as On-Scene Commander at a homemade explosives disposal operation. They are also expected to advise their chain of command on homemade explosives.
The course is broken down into two parts. First, students make live homemade explosives from set recipes, covering eleven categories including TATP, HMTD, RDX, and nitroglycerin-based mixtures, and build improvised detonators.
Second, they identify the material with field testing kits, write and brief a disposal plan, and desensitize and neutralize it. Then they plan its transport and destroy it with counter-charges.
Hope that description helps! You can also find the documents themselves on CanadaBuys instead of SAP, so they’re publicly accessible.
Q14. Getting back to the Arctic Mobile Base, is it fair to say it is in the options analysis phase? Anything further to share on where this concept is? Any momentum?
It’s still in Identification. We’re still working to develop the concept of what AMB looks like, because at the end of the day, one vessel can’t be everything, and there is a need not only to set priorities, but identify what is actually possible for such a vessel to do.
Right now, AMB is still in the early, conceptual stages. It is still trying to figure out what exactly it is. I have no sense of timeline for anything, no specific capabilities set as high-level. Things are still very much in the works, and I don’t expect to see or hear a whole lot on it. Like CDC, we’ll likely get bits and pieces over time.
Q15. Is using horses in combat roles being looked at for us? I watched a Forces News video on the British Army trialling them in roles that allied nations use them in.
I have never heard horses mentioned by anyone. Ever. Though I do think we should get Cody to do something fun for once and make him recreate these Chinese nuclear test photos for my amusement.
Q16. Will LVM include fuel pods on either the light or heavy variants? Hopefully both. We’re desperately short on them.
The Heavy will. Isometrics out of North Carolina will be providing the modules for them. I have not seen anything on Zetros Light getting fuel pods.
Q17. Why isn’t the ARes getting any LVM? Wouldn’t it make more sense for them to have lighter and less complex sustainment vehicles?
Getting none is a bit of a stretch. The primary thing to remember, I think, with all the ongoing who-gets-what, is that:
The plan has always been to focus on getting 1st Div equipped with the gear they need to support our expeditionary goals.
We’re operating off projects that were not scoped with supporting two Divisions in mind, at the scale we need.
The ARes was specifically left out of a lot of the current scope, and sent to the figure-out-later pile.
Now, though, a lot of that is coming to a head, and it is forcing a lot of difficult decisions to be made, as well as forcing people to the drawing board as we now start to take a greater look at what the ARes needs to do as part of the Defence of Canada and what kind of equipment they actually need to succeed in that.
That doesn’t mean the ARes gets nothing. LUV Phase I, as I know it, will mainly go to ARes; that’s almost 200 new Silverado coming by the end of the 2026 period, at least last plan I heard.
There is still a lot of bad being done to the ARes, and there is still a lot that needs to be figured out. There is also a lot I think the Army still needs to do to show they care about the Reserves and don’t just see them as the Fire and Mobilization Division.
But it isn’t all doom and gloom, and I am confident that the plan will come together, and the ARes will get some new, proper kit.
Q18. Saab developing an A3-001 loyal wingman. A1/A2 testing 2027/28. A3 planned mid-2030s. Digital twin with 3D printing and production. Any discussion within RCAF?
That falls under RACP-P, the RCAF Autonomous Collaborative Platform. One of the largest projects on the books value-wise, with an estimated budget of $10+ billion, and also one of the least informed.
It aims to acquire a fleet of collaborative, autonomous aircraft to supplement and support the future fighter fleet. There’s not a lot to say right now about this one; it is likely to be more an initiative than a single project, and we are very likely to see multiple fleets of different platforms acquired, from smaller, expendable systems utilized as things like decoys, EW platforms, etc., to larger, fighter-sized collaborative aircraft.
RFP is currently set for 2027 or 2028 with a staggeringly quick award in 2028, likely for research and development. The current IOC is set for 2032 with FOC 2036. So, as we close out the F-35, we’re jumping right into the first CCA.
How Saab fits into that? I can’t say. We have some great Canadian companies working on CCA concepts, most I unfortunately can’t say. Dominion is working on their own high-end ACP in Dominion Scout, as an example. I think CCA is something we could do here, if we put our heart into it.
Funny thing, when I talked to Saab, they were still looking to get the Swedish government to commit. Concepts like A3 are being done in-house, both to retain skill in designing fighter-sized platforms, but also to demonstrate the company can develop a platform like this.
Saab also has positioned ACP/CCA as a part of their Gripen investment plan, but that will come in more details soon. From the RCAF themselves? Things are still in the conceptual stage.
Q19. What are the Koreans pitching for their GBAD concept?
I have no clue at this stage. Sorry. I don’t know if they have discussed a proper package, outside their Biho offer. I have not heard it if they have.
Q20. Just thought, I think the AW101 would be an excellent choice for nTACS. Since IMP has a production line open, they can be produced here.
Assembled here is the accurate term, but produced can work in the general sense. For nTACS? As before, the AW101 is a bit too big for what we want out of nTACS. It isn’t the platform that we’re hunting for our future Medium helicopter.
Q21. Next part of my question: have you heard if they’re going to add any more Cormorants?
HOWEVER. This remains a possibility. There have been active discussions on expanding the existing Cormorant fleet, very active discussion. At the least, there is a desire to move Griffons off the SAR role, and with the line open and producing? There is no better time to maybe add a few extra Cormorant to facilitate that.
Lord knows they’re in demand lol. We quite literally can’t get enough of them! If there is an avenue to see more 101, it is in more Cormorant.
You can find the link to next weeks slido here!
