Let's talk with Noah (11/09/25): CDC numbers, GDLS & MEDCAV, Tanks
Happy… Sunday?
Thats right, we're doing this a day early! I have a very husy day tomorrow and Tuesday, so I thought it would be a bit easier for me to just get Let's Talk out of the way. We'll still do the newsletter tomorrow though!
As always you can ask your questions, and vote on others, over on our Slido page. It will be up until Monday! A lot of you sent stuff in DMs also but I prefer the stuff there as it can be voted on and also kept open to everyone. If you enjoy my content also consider supporting TNSR over on our Kofi!
Q1. How many CDCs do think will be ordered? A 1 to 1 replacement of the MCDVs or more to grow the fleet in numbers?
I've heard numbers jump aroung from six to over twelve. The truth is that I don't think we've had anyone land on a true number. Keep in mind, CDC is unfunded. We don't have a budget, have a loose timeline? Around 2035ish for what they hope to be the first entry into service.
What we do know is that, according to the Navy's own assessment, the number of combatants Canada needs to effectively carry out all of its mandated tasks and roles is somewhere above twenty. How far above twenty? We don't know, or at least I don't.
I tend to use six to twelve as a general estimate. The likelihood is that there is a high-low of either six to eight or eight to twelve. That twelve number is very aspirational and, of course, a lot comes down to what CDC as an end product looks like. Is it a Minifax? Frankencorvette? Somewhere in between?
The recent conversation has pointed to a high-end concept, so naturally my own prediction works down. I think that eight is a safe number, at this time, to stick with and go as an assumption. That could change depending on how good the navy can convince everyone that this is a need.
I do think its the best number we have to work with so far. If we were still looking at something like the OG Vigilance proposal? Than maybe more than 12 depending, but that would be with Flight Is in there too.
Q2. Have you heard anything on contingency planning or training regarding the US and continental defence? Curious to know if that's being factored into acquisitions
Im sure someone is. I have only heard of things, at least on the DND side as business as usual. There isnt a sense of worry there. There's actually more pushback from what I've seen. Obviously different departments have different mentalities, and different branches have different concerns. CDC is being billed as a hedge against American technologied found in the River-class. The navy seems more active in examining ways to diversify.
Comparatively you dont see that same system in the RCAF. They still want American kit. They aint concerns, and axtively push back on things like the 35 and AEWC. They are much less concerned about the current situation and climate, but they also have the added pressure of NORAD and maintaining commonality. That isnt unsung.
Im sure that there have been talks, discussions and some plannning to certain scenarios. Thats just being proactive. I have not heard much about those developments though. They're certainly going on but I can't really speak to them.
Q3. this isn't a question, my question on the Skyranger for LLAD, GDLS Europe they have fitted the turret on to a Piranna 5
They do! Although we tend to follow what GDLS does here over Europe. Certainly its possible, but when you have a company offering two comparable systems that could meet the requirements, it tends to lean whats already done here like Stryker MSHORAD.
Its an option. Skyranger is great for its ease of integration onto multiple platforms. If it comes down though I would expect MSHORAD. It's what they've shown off, done here already…
Q4. Any news on a new tank for the army & adding to them….or just refurbishing the existing numbers?
The plan is the same as I said a few weeks ago unfortunately! There is no major tank competition planned for the foreseeable future. The best option on the table that I have seen is adding to the existing Leopard fleet as part of a wider refurbishment.
Q5. Have you heard any info on JTF2? Any stories on them?
Honestly I dont hear much about CANSOF. They keep quiet, and I have no connections there. Only time I hear about them is in passing, sometimes through stuff like the Next-Generation Fighting Vehicle project. Thats about it.
Q6. What do you think the current options are for buying additional fuel at sea ships? The same as last year's verdict
There is a desire for more Joint Support Ships, however its not on the books AFAIK. The truth is that four has always been the need, and that won't change especially with a much larger fleet. The thing is it's just not a prioirty right now with things like CPSP, CDC, and getting the River-class going. Only so many people, funds, and time for advocacy.
Q7. Now that CCG is under the DND umbrella, has there been discussion of using Polar icebreakers to supplement Operation Boxtop movements by the RCAF?
Not that I have heard. We're still very early into everything and details haven't been fully hammered out. We don't even have the basics fully set, so give it some time! I'm sure though thay discussions like this, among many others, are ongoing.
Q8. I've been following some of the reactions to the Ajax from British defence analysts, and they seem broadly negative. The Ajax has been name dropped a lot for us because we're so beholden to GDLS, but do you think the CAF is taking notice of its potential issues?
Of course they are. Thats being proactive and having proper risk assessments in place. Of course the issues of a platform will be discussed, even if Ajax is maturing, albeit very slowly and a lot of kinks are being worked out.
Funny enough GDLS actually has three potential options in Ajax, ASCOD, and the potential OMFV. While Ajax and ASCOD share heritage they are separate platforms. OMFV is also its own platform. Realistically all three could be options, especially because we don't really know what MEDCAV wants to deliver.
GDLS could run a competition by itself lol. They could even bring back tracked stryker, as cursed and ungodly as it is and run the gauntlet here. In fact most of the major players could throw out like two or three options!
On that note
Q09. Have you heard any info on the medium cavalary vehicle besides that it will be tracked?
Not much. The project is still in the very early stages. There is a timeline for the early 2030s to enter service though.
Q10. Could the AOPS be used as the basis for the Corvettes?
It wouldn't be terribly effective. The AOPS were never designed to be combatants, and to try and force them inti that role would probably be so complex and ineffective that it would be cheaper and easier to start from scratch.