I had to do a Google search of our shipyards. As your summary points out, our total shipyard m squared is significantly smaller than that of South Korea’s. What really surprised me was how minuscule was Irving’s shipyard. Given that it was they who were given the jewel of the NSS, their investment into serious naval shipbuilding was surprisingly tepid. With all the $$ that the GoC put into that firm, resulting in a capability to build only one ship at a time,15 ships, over 25 years!! 9,270 sq meters! It’s enough to dot an “i” in “shipyard”. I guess it looked acceptable 15-20 years ago when the national defence vision was somewhat myopic, constrained by a shrinking defence budget falling to less than 1% of GDP. Is that the excuse? Well as the PM says, it’s past the time of hoping for the best. There is one company that has seized the moment and built itself out of ashes. It’s time to consider Davie, now the largest shipyard in Canada, as an RCD partner.
Wow, quite a report…..I can almost feel how massive & productive the place is. The little you can say here about submarines suggestions nothing on offer is second rate. Given this followed by CANSEC makes me wish we could sit down for a Few pints & ask all the questions that have built up. So very much appreciated in any case.
One of the concerns that sits at the back of my mind in many of these international procurement decisions is worst case analysis. We are all looking at it right now with the USA. In the worst case scenario, will the US honour all agreements and timelines? Will they prioritize their own needs, brought on by their overseas adventures, or will they use those contracts as a stick to make us comply with their wishes? A few short years ago, it was mostly unthinkable, but now we are hearing about foot dragging on the approvals for FMS and ITAR paperwork, and even crazier things are thrown around by the politicians involved. But this is just a wake up call, not a worst case scenario. Still mostly unthinkable, but not quite as unthinkable as it once was, is the partisan politics on display south of the boarder turning into an actual civil war, or something close too it. If that were to happen, the fallout here in Canada wouldn't stop at a few broken contracts, but that would certainly be likely.
With TKMS, we have to hope that if the AfD come to power, they don't sabotage the current German government's programs and priorities out of spite and conflicting priorities. That we will be able to live with increased ties to a far right movement in Europe, and what cooperation will look like after that. But a much worse scenario would be Russia invading the rest of Europe to distract from growing problems at home. It seems unlikely, but reamians possible, and would also throw a monkey wrench into the works. Suddenly Germany's EU partners are going to be screaming for every weapon they can produce yesterday, and where will Canada be on that priority list? If we are an active participant in any combat (which isn't impossible, considering how we are deployed in Latvia), we might maintain, and even benefit, from an increase in tempo, but if we tried to stay on the sidelines, much like the EU is doing with Ukraine, we can expect our subs to be a much lower priority, and we might even give up build slots to Germany and Norway as a political gesture of support.
With Hanwha and the South Koreans, the attempted military coup of only a few years ago demonstrates that politics there are not perfectly stable, but nothing I have heard implies that there is a significant faction that would walk back their commitments to Canada in the case of change in leadership. In fact, I think everyone there wants to grow the relationship into something much bigger than a few submarines. They want a substitute for the USA, a security guarantor that they can threaten North Korea with if they get obstreperous. They want someone who is so integrated in their economy, that an attack on South Korea will feel like an attack on them, and they will contribute to a response or defense out of a desire to protect their investment, in addition to humanitarian and international law. And I don't blame them! In their situation, I'd be doing the exact same thing. With the USA shaking the bedrock of detant that had been maintained since the end of the Korean War by over and under commiting to allies around the world, Korea has to prepare for a scenario where the USA will not be able to respond as they have always expected, because their resources are pulled in too many different directions. If China invades Taiwan, North Korea is never going to have a better opportunity to invade South Korea, and China would have to be an idiot not to see that. If they want to goad America into a mistake, giving NK tacit consent to invade, or even just launch a major strike on, SK just before or just after invading Taiwan would be a sound tactical move. If SK is fighting for its life, or even just responding to a major humanitarian crisis of missile strikes in a major city, all our current assumptions would go out the window. Unless SK's production capacity was damaged, I'm sure they would continue to prioritize our subs, maybe even expedite them, but all our assumptions about what we need from our military for will out the window if we get dragged into a direct conflict with NK, and possibly China, if the states are duking it out with them over Taiwan. And that doesn't even consider the semiconductor crisis we would be smack dab in the middle off.
All that to say, there are some crazy worst case scenarios out there that might completely change the way we look at the world in the near future. It behoves us to consider them all, and prepare some contingency plans.
Wow. Seriously insane. It’s actually a little scary to think that these places actually exist. Is there a way for us to muster the collective will required to construct such an enterprise here (thou not quite at that scale)? This is the type of thing we (Canada/NATO) need if we are going to build and defend as a collective. Adds a whole new dimension to what the Koreans bring to the table. We knew they were good but to have built a machine world like that boggles the mind. There is so much more to this than subs. Where do we want to be in 20 yrs as a nation.
The Koreans will never make an offer like this again and nor will the Germans. I’m beginning to come around to the idea that maybe just maybe an order of 18 subs split between them is justifiable given what we have to gain industrially and politically. We can surely figure out the logitistics with these highly motivated partners where we turn a split fleet into a positive. This isn’t just about dollars and cents. It’s about rebuilding our nation into something new something stronger more resilient all while building partnerships everywhere we can. Yeah what else can I say. You blew my mind Noah. For Carney, this is one of the most difficult procurement decision
A truly wonderful summary Noah. I guess now you will have to visit TKMS. You’ve left us feeling that to choose anything but the KS-III would be silly.
Noah, this story is great journalism. Your writing produced a sense of awe and astonishment. Great job! Again, Well Done.
I had to do a Google search of our shipyards. As your summary points out, our total shipyard m squared is significantly smaller than that of South Korea’s. What really surprised me was how minuscule was Irving’s shipyard. Given that it was they who were given the jewel of the NSS, their investment into serious naval shipbuilding was surprisingly tepid. With all the $$ that the GoC put into that firm, resulting in a capability to build only one ship at a time,15 ships, over 25 years!! 9,270 sq meters! It’s enough to dot an “i” in “shipyard”. I guess it looked acceptable 15-20 years ago when the national defence vision was somewhat myopic, constrained by a shrinking defence budget falling to less than 1% of GDP. Is that the excuse? Well as the PM says, it’s past the time of hoping for the best. There is one company that has seized the moment and built itself out of ashes. It’s time to consider Davie, now the largest shipyard in Canada, as an RCD partner.
Wow, quite a report…..I can almost feel how massive & productive the place is. The little you can say here about submarines suggestions nothing on offer is second rate. Given this followed by CANSEC makes me wish we could sit down for a Few pints & ask all the questions that have built up. So very much appreciated in any case.
Wow... That is a bit of a mind blower!
One of the concerns that sits at the back of my mind in many of these international procurement decisions is worst case analysis. We are all looking at it right now with the USA. In the worst case scenario, will the US honour all agreements and timelines? Will they prioritize their own needs, brought on by their overseas adventures, or will they use those contracts as a stick to make us comply with their wishes? A few short years ago, it was mostly unthinkable, but now we are hearing about foot dragging on the approvals for FMS and ITAR paperwork, and even crazier things are thrown around by the politicians involved. But this is just a wake up call, not a worst case scenario. Still mostly unthinkable, but not quite as unthinkable as it once was, is the partisan politics on display south of the boarder turning into an actual civil war, or something close too it. If that were to happen, the fallout here in Canada wouldn't stop at a few broken contracts, but that would certainly be likely.
With TKMS, we have to hope that if the AfD come to power, they don't sabotage the current German government's programs and priorities out of spite and conflicting priorities. That we will be able to live with increased ties to a far right movement in Europe, and what cooperation will look like after that. But a much worse scenario would be Russia invading the rest of Europe to distract from growing problems at home. It seems unlikely, but reamians possible, and would also throw a monkey wrench into the works. Suddenly Germany's EU partners are going to be screaming for every weapon they can produce yesterday, and where will Canada be on that priority list? If we are an active participant in any combat (which isn't impossible, considering how we are deployed in Latvia), we might maintain, and even benefit, from an increase in tempo, but if we tried to stay on the sidelines, much like the EU is doing with Ukraine, we can expect our subs to be a much lower priority, and we might even give up build slots to Germany and Norway as a political gesture of support.
With Hanwha and the South Koreans, the attempted military coup of only a few years ago demonstrates that politics there are not perfectly stable, but nothing I have heard implies that there is a significant faction that would walk back their commitments to Canada in the case of change in leadership. In fact, I think everyone there wants to grow the relationship into something much bigger than a few submarines. They want a substitute for the USA, a security guarantor that they can threaten North Korea with if they get obstreperous. They want someone who is so integrated in their economy, that an attack on South Korea will feel like an attack on them, and they will contribute to a response or defense out of a desire to protect their investment, in addition to humanitarian and international law. And I don't blame them! In their situation, I'd be doing the exact same thing. With the USA shaking the bedrock of detant that had been maintained since the end of the Korean War by over and under commiting to allies around the world, Korea has to prepare for a scenario where the USA will not be able to respond as they have always expected, because their resources are pulled in too many different directions. If China invades Taiwan, North Korea is never going to have a better opportunity to invade South Korea, and China would have to be an idiot not to see that. If they want to goad America into a mistake, giving NK tacit consent to invade, or even just launch a major strike on, SK just before or just after invading Taiwan would be a sound tactical move. If SK is fighting for its life, or even just responding to a major humanitarian crisis of missile strikes in a major city, all our current assumptions would go out the window. Unless SK's production capacity was damaged, I'm sure they would continue to prioritize our subs, maybe even expedite them, but all our assumptions about what we need from our military for will out the window if we get dragged into a direct conflict with NK, and possibly China, if the states are duking it out with them over Taiwan. And that doesn't even consider the semiconductor crisis we would be smack dab in the middle off.
All that to say, there are some crazy worst case scenarios out there that might completely change the way we look at the world in the near future. It behoves us to consider them all, and prepare some contingency plans.
Wow. Seriously insane. It’s actually a little scary to think that these places actually exist. Is there a way for us to muster the collective will required to construct such an enterprise here (thou not quite at that scale)? This is the type of thing we (Canada/NATO) need if we are going to build and defend as a collective. Adds a whole new dimension to what the Koreans bring to the table. We knew they were good but to have built a machine world like that boggles the mind. There is so much more to this than subs. Where do we want to be in 20 yrs as a nation.
The Koreans will never make an offer like this again and nor will the Germans. I’m beginning to come around to the idea that maybe just maybe an order of 18 subs split between them is justifiable given what we have to gain industrially and politically. We can surely figure out the logitistics with these highly motivated partners where we turn a split fleet into a positive. This isn’t just about dollars and cents. It’s about rebuilding our nation into something new something stronger more resilient all while building partnerships everywhere we can. Yeah what else can I say. You blew my mind Noah. For Carney, this is one of the most difficult procurement decision
In our history. Cheers.