Defence Announcement Livethread: Breaking down 2% spending, Coast Guard, comments from the Prime Minister
Good Mornign everyone!
Today is set to be a busy day, so instead of waiting for everything to be done, I thought we could do something different and put together a live thread of everything!
This thread will cover everything from today, as well as some thoughts of mine. I will still be doing a dedicated piece on everything, but wanted to make sure people kept up.
This will be continuously updated, so be sure to check back in from time to time! Make note that the Media Briefing has a blackout period on it, so we will have to see when things can be discussed
𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐞:
• Press Conference with Carney & McGuinty - 10:00 EST
• Media Briefing - 11:40-12:30 EST
• Media Scrum - 1:00 EST
Announcement Highlights:
• Canada has committed to reaching 2% by March of next year.
• A new Defence Policy is in the works
• Work has begun on setting up the Defence Procurememt Agency
• Canada commits to honoring NATO Capability Blueprint
•
Previous reports on Coast Guard moving to the DND are falseUPDATE: There is conflicting information regarding this. I have reached out to both thr DFO and DND about this issue. We have multiple conflicting statements.
• Canada's Defence Industrial Policy will be released soon
LINKS:
Press Conference with Prime Minister Carney highlights (taken from my twitter):
We open with Carney. He welcomes the crowd. Says there is no better place to have this discussion than the Munk School. Gives praise to the school. Says that there has never been more demand for places like Munk in the new geopolitical situation
Highlights that Canada can work towards new international alliances with shared democracies, that share our values. Says that we can form a new system that focuses on mutual support, not dependency. Says we will have to make difficult choices, and work harder to achieve that.
Carney highlights that there cant be true security without economic prosperity. Highlights his pledge to build the strongest economy in the G7, creating One Canadian Eocnomy, becoming an energy superpower, and building partnerships
Says this will not be easy, that it will take time and require sacrifice. He says that Canada thouggh can turn this era of disorder into an era of prosperity for all Canadians.
Brings up Vimy Ridge. We have a bit of a history lesson. He highlights U.S. Hegemony. Says that the US is turning the Hegemony against partners, says that we are in a new era of imperialism, that threatens Canada. He says middle powers need to step up.
PMMC highlights these new threats, including both state and non-state actors, that threaten Canada.
Says that Canadas Geographic advantage no longer exists, that Canada's Arctic is becoming more volatile as it opens up. Highlights threats from Russia and China.
Highlights Canadian values and standing up for territorial integrity not just in Ukraine and Gaza but at home.
Highlights how ten years ago Canada's defence spending fell below 1%. He highlights the struggles of the armed forces, including mentions of submarines and equipment availability.
We get confirmation of 2% this year. Says that change is coming, including to how we do things and how we purchase things. Says we must be prepared to fight from the seabed to space.
He's currently running through the Liberal election platform. He calls on all parties to support these investments.
Currently running through the election stuff, including prioritizing made-in-canada solutions. This is just going through the list of promises that the government has already discussed. Nothing new here, just running through the same stuff as before.
Now talking about TransAtlantic security. Mentions ReArm Europe and the Canada-EU summit later this month. Pledges support for what comes out of NATOs capability plans. No mention of 5%. He highlights though about how this isn't about pleasing NATO but protecting Canada.
Carney says that the DND will craft a new defence policy to take into account new changes and challenges. He highlights that plans are in the works for setting up the new Defence Procurement Agency. Says that this will come at the benefit of Canadian industry.
Highlights the benefits of defence investment for economic growth. He highlights how defence spending does not just grow the defence industry, but also helps drive innovation, and helps build Canada Strong.
He closes by saying now is the time to act with urgency, force, and determination. Says that his government will protect Canada coast-coast-coast and help build Canada's economy for all Canadians.
Thoughts: Obviously more is to be expected. We still have a Media Briefing and a further Scrum later today. Obviously 2% is good, but I want to see how the government plans to spending easier. Injecting money is nice, but it doesnt change the existing bottlenecks or rules.
A new defence policy hit me with surprise. We knew one was coming in 2028, thanks to the new four year rule, but this seems to be one that will be done before then. I wasn't expecting it to be in discussion.
We have a breakdown in spending released. The total injection is valued at $9 Billion. This brings us up to $62.7 billion in total funding, just above 2% and includes:
A Strong Fighting Force
$2.6 billion (both on a cash basis and on an accrual basis) to empower the military to recruit and retain the personnel needed to carry out its mandate.
Accelerate recruitment and reinforce retention to bring the CAF to 71,500 Regular and 30,000 Primary Reserve members by 2030 (13,000 Regular and Primary Reserve members are needed). This would include investments in recruitment and retention efforts to ensure that the CAF has the personnel it needs to be ready to respond effectively to threats at home and engage meaningfully abroad.
Invest in the civilian workforce to enable members of the Defence Team to support operational readiness, fleet maintenance, internal service functions, finance, policy procurement, public affairs, security, accountability, digital, and infrastructure requirements — allowing the CAF to focus on operational requirements.
Repair and Sustain – Equipment and Infrastructure
$844 million ($767 million on an accrual basis) to repair and sustain CAF capabilities and invest in revitalizing and optimizing key infrastructure.
Leverage Phase 2 of the National Procurement Program to increase funding for the repair and maintenance of CAF equipment. These additional resources will be allocated to critical fleets such as in land, maritime and aerospace domains.
Invest in repairing and sustaining existing DND/CAF infrastructure in order to maximize operational readiness and support CAF members. Infrastructure repair and sustainment will ensure that the CAF can continue using existing capabilities and be ready to bring online new capabilities.
Strengthening Digital Foundations
$560 million ($376 million on an accrual basis) to strengthen DND and the CAF’s digital foundations to ensure that the Defence Team is a relevant and modern workforce in today’s technological era. This funding will enable the Defence Team to be more resilient to cyber threats and leverage data strategically to improve decision-making, while keeping defence information safe and secure. This amount also includes funding for the CSE.
Expanding and Enhancing Existing and Emerging Military Capabilities
$1 billion ($431 million on an accrual basis) to grow existing and introduce emerging military capabilities that will allow Canada to become increasingly self-sufficient in fulfilling its responsibility to defend its territory and citizens, especially in the Arctic. To do so, DND will move forward with commitments made in ONSAF, with a focus on Canadian suppliers.
Strengthening Canada’s Relationship with the Defence Industry
$2.1 billion (both on a cash basis and on an accrual basis) to strengthen the Government’s relationship with Canada’s defence industry to lay the groundwork for a comprehensive Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS). These actions focus on immediate needs like reducing obstacles that currently limit industry’s ability to provide critical equipment and support to the CAF. As Canada cannot produce all needed military capabilities independently, the DIS will also strengthen Allied industrial partnerships and leverage joint NATO procurement mechanisms.
Developing Stronger Defence Partnerships
$2 billion (both on a cash basis and on an accrual basis) to diversify Canada’s defence partnerships beyond the United States (US). Canada will take advantage of both a strategic opportunity and imperative given changes in the global environment. As part of this effort, Canada will continue to leverage partnerships with the US when it is in Canada’s best interest to do so.
There is further clarification given. There are plans to expand the role and size of the Supplementary Reserves, as well they were unable to give clear info or definition on ehat PMMC meant when speaking on a new Defence Policy.
I was happy that it was brought up how we have to keep up with the times, and that means continuous study and policy to ensure we are procuring the right tools for the job.
Further discussions was also given to the lack of things, such as the lack of mechanisms for securing Critical Minerals or industrial communications.
Funding is set out to help fix these gaps. It’s acknowledged that unlike allies we have no system in place to stockpile and rapidly acquire critical minerals.
The U.S. DOD already does this. They do it here! Of course we dont know how this works, either through pure purchase to stockpile or taking ownership of potential critical operations.
They also bring up building the supply chain for critical minerals including in the realm of processing, working with Natural Resources and Industry Canada to identify projects and how the DND can support.
Again not a new concept. Other countries do this, and again the DOD has invested in several critical minerals projects in Canada to help ween off the overreliance on the Chinese mineral supply.
There is also talks about potential Joint Procurement and multinational partnerships with allies. This is a major shift in policy for the government, and sets the stage for potential collaboration on equipment purchases with allies.
That is a very interesting concept, one we dont really see much. We obviously get no details on how that would work, but there is an acknowledgement that some procurement are better done together.
European partners do this commonly. It allows for commonality, helps reinforce the supply chain, and drives the cost of equipment down when we all go in together.
Canada does not do that, at least not before it, and while im skeptical on it, I am open to the concept, especially for things like munitions.
We also have confirmation that the plan is not to move the Coast Guard to the DND or arm it. Instead the focus will be on networking the Coast Guard with the broader defence network. That can include CAF personnel being stationed on Coast Guard vessels and sharing of equipment between services.
UPDATE: There is conflicting information regarding this. I have reached out to both thr DFO and DND about this issue. We have multiple conflicting statements.
Further questions are asked about Golden Dome, which is redirected into put own IAMD plans. Thwre is very much a wait and see. Obviously, no matter what, NORAD is a thing at the end of the day. That means that Golden Dome is always something we need to be looking at.
However there is reassurance that the focus right now is on IAMD plans. We have our own ideas in the works, and perhaps its not about joining Golden Dome but making sure we can integrate out own capabilities into it.
Carney Media Scrum
We jump right into questioning, at least for my feed. I missed part of the first question. Carney is asked how much of this will be 'creative accounting'.
The Prime Minister emphasizes that none of it will be. He highlights the work done during this period by people in both the DND and CAF, especially during an election season where short-term focus takes precedence.
He says this government recognizes the importance of providing the foundations, such as proper pay, housing, munitions, etc.
He says that the nature of our alliances, and what they expect of us is changing but its also recognized that what we need to do to protect Canada has also shifted.
He emphasizes, a lot, that now is the time where we need to act.
PMMC is then asked about procurement, and the challenges it presents.
The Prime Minister brings up quite the extensive list of noted issues, such as slow speeds leading to lapsed spending, which leads to a lack of equipment needed.
He mentions consistency, and how the lack of it hampers CAF ability to plan long-term, making note that its hard to plan ten years in advance when you dont have a consistent model of procurement and funding.
Lastly we get back into the financial side. Primarily focused on both value for money and creating the maximum economic benefit possible. These are two areas that Carney consistently brings up, using defence to foster economic growth.
Its very clear that Carney views defence as an easy injection to the Canadian economy.
He does mention the institutional issues, which is why his government has decided to form the Defence Procurement Agency. He says again its a work in progress but doesn’t give details, saying it will be discussed at a later date.
He does mention their mandate will include building Canadian capacity. This still leaves the role of the DPA, its mandate, and what powers it will have in an open-ended box of question marks.
I would like to hear more about this, and there is a teaser but dissapointing we can't get anything on it ahead of restructuring, even if I would rather them take ot slow and not rush things.
This press conference is financial focused. Many questions focusing on how? How do we pay for this? What will we do to pay for it?
To those who read my NATO spending piece you'll know that the public reaction to spending has been a major concern of mine.
He does highlight how this is needed, its fundamental. He uses that a lot here. He highlights that this isn't just about NATO a lot. That this is fundamentally about protecting Canadians.
He gives basic points of finding savings, government efficiency, to reallocate spending. All the basic answers one expects when asked about paying things. These are all measures PMMC has highlighted since his campaign trail.
Budget is coming in the fall, does highlight that this won't be paid for by higher taxes. There is a lot of repeat from the earlier announcement. He mentions that there will need to be a degree of cooperation, consensus, and yes, sacrifice to achieve these goals.
There is a consistent callback to similar debates in Europe that are invoked here. In fact there is a lot during today that tried to tie us into a similar camp as them.
Carney is asked about how these announcements play into ongoing negotiations with the United States. He says, again, that its about responsibility to Canadians. He mentions the role Canada plays in collective security, and highlights that the threat environment have changed.
Carney again highlights that geography can no longer protect us. He says Canada is a firm supporter of NATO and wants to be a strong partner. He says that this is complementary to those negotiations.
Followup brings up that U.S. companies are likely to benefit from this new spending.
Carney says that we are one of the top buyers for U.S. defence companies. He highlights the increased spending but pivots to talking about being a complementary partner to U.S. industry. He brings up AI specifically as a field we are experts in that can support our allies
Asked about U.S. Integration, and the inevitability that Canada will be tied to it, Carney says complete integration is not inevitable. He says that the close, complimentary relationship will continue in areas where it makes sense, such as NORAD and Ballistic Missile Defence.
He says there are many areas where close cooperation is needed and beneficial. He says there is even areas where expansion is possible. He says that in other areas though, where we are looking to diversify.
He again brings up ReArm Europe. He says its better to have options, to have a diversified supply network than to be tied to one partner. I should note that there is some aims in the DND to have 70% of funding spent on Canadian businesses and people.
We get a question on NATO 5% spending. Carney says that 2% is the current NATO target. He says that its known that we need to spend beyond that, and that discussions are ongoing to what that number will be and the timeline to reaching them.
These will not only be discussed at the NATO summit at the end of the month, but also at the G7 next week, where Carney is set to meet with Secretary General Rutte. He says that it will be about results, and brings up the new Defence Industrial Pledge.
For those who don't know this pledge aims to add 1.5% of additional spending for defence and security related investments on top of a base 3.5% spending. This will bring the total NATO contribution to 5% of GDP.
Carney says he believes we are already meeting that pledge, and is confident we van meet it quick. No direct commitment to 5% but it is very clear they are developing a plan to meet it, including setting up for a quick addition of 1.5% to that spending. There is very clearly some sort of plan in place to meet these spending thresholds.
Supplementary Estimates
For those of you who like them, here are the figures from the Supplementary Estimate tabled today. I havent gone through them fully myself, but I thought some of you might like them before then!
As always ive included the link above with the other links.
Not the place or time for detailed capability announcements.
Great info and good job. Won't please everyone, but then that is never the point. Baby steps as we start to accept our responsibilities within the NATO framework. Thanks for your hard work today. Have a beer, get some sleep. Cheers!