Paris Declaration – Robust security guarantees for a solid and lasting peace in Ukraine

Press Release + Noah Note

The members of the Coalition of the Willing, Ukraine and the United States have convened today in Paris.

We all stressed our commitment to a just and lasting peace in Ukraine in line with the United Nations Charter principles, and welcomed the progress achieved, including in the discussions between the Americans, the Ukrainians, European and other partners.

In particular, the Coalition was clear that Ukraine’s ability to defend itself is critically important for ensuring the future of Ukraine’s and Euro-Atlantic collective security. We confirmed that ensuring the sovereignty and lasting security of Ukraine shall be an integral part of a peace agreement, and that any settlement will have to be backed up by robust security guarantees for Ukraine.

We stand ready to commit to a system of politically and legally binding guarantees that will be activated once a ceasefire enters into force, in addition to bilateral security agreements and in accordance with our respective legal and constitutional arrangements.

They will include the following components:

1. Participation in a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism. There will be a continuous, reliable ceasefire monitoring system, including contributions from members of the Coalition of the Willing. The Coalition of the Willing will also be represented in the Special Commission that will be established to address any breaches, attribute responsibility, and determine remedies.

2. Support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine: the Coalition agreed to continue critical long term military assistance and armament to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to ensure their sustained capability, as they will remain the first line of defence and deterrence. This will include but not be limited to: long term defence packages; support for financing the purchase of weapons; continued cooperation with Ukraine on its national budget to finance the armed forces; access to defence depots which can deliver rapid additional support in the case of a future armed attack; provision of practical and technical support to Ukraine in building defensive fortifications.

3. A multinational force for Ukraine made up from contributions from willing nations within the framework of the Coalition, to support the rebuilding of Ukraine's armed forces and support deterrence. Coordinated military planning has been conducted to prepare for reassurance measures in the air, at sea and on land and for the regeneration of the armed forces of Ukraine, supported by Coalition forces inside Ukraine and in the region. We confirmed that these reassurance measures should be strictly implemented at Ukraine’s request once a credible cessation of hostilities has taken place. These elements will be European-led, with the involvement also of non-European members of the Coalition, and the proposed support of the US.

4. Binding commitments to support Ukraine in the case of a future armed attack by Russia in order to restore peace. We agreed to finalize binding commitments setting out our approach to support Ukraine and to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack by Russia. These commitments may include the use of military capabilities, intelligence and logistical support, diplomatic initiatives, adoption of additional sanctions.

5. Commitment to deepen long-term defence cooperation with Ukraine. We agreed we would continue to develop and deepen mutually beneficial defence cooperation with Ukraine, inter alia: training, defence industrial joint production, including with the use of European relevant instruments, and intelligence cooperation.

We have further decided to establish a US/Ukraine/Coalition coordination cell at the Coalition Operational Headquarters in Paris.

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Noah Note: As Europe and Canada attempt to find their position amid ongoing ceasefire discussions, we finally have some sort of framework for the post-war Ukraine and while I wasnt expecting much, there feels little here that hasnt already been discussed and argued before.

It is a rehash of the last several years of discussions, now pushed on as the United States and Russia continue to try and come to a bilateral agreement on the future of Ukraine. Of course I am glad to see the support outlined, however I remain highly skeptical that change has happened.

The commitment of forces to Ukraine is not new. The continued military support for Ukraine is not new. Perhaps I am being a bit to cynical, and as many of you know I tend to take these agreements with hesrt. I love agreements, and am quick to give them the benefit and time they would need to work.

This is a first step. It sets the prioirties. However, and barring annoying some of my followers, my trust in the Europeans here is faultered at best. Perhaps the last week of lukewarm responses to bith Venezuela and repeated back and forth of Greenland have pushed me into a negative state but I am not willing to believe the EU and such are as unified here in their commitments and ideas as they are trying to pass off here.

For Canada the question becomes how exactly do we fit? Of course any sort of major commitment of forces is off the table at this time. The Canadian Army is already stretched fairly tight with our ongoing commitment to maintaining our Latvian presence and OP Reassurance as a whole.

Simialrly, the RCAF and RCN are also stretched somewhat thin in this regard, though potentially provide some additional wiggleroom. The commiting of aerial assets like the CP-140 or to Minehunting in the Black Sea remain valuable, worthwhile contributions that we could perform.

And of course expanding out support through OP Unifier also remains a distinct ‘on-the-ground’ role that we could perform. Expanding Unifier in scale and scope always remains a possibility in my mind, especially in the post-war enviornment.

I have been thinking about Canada's future role in Ukraine a lot lately as pecae discussions have been ongoing. What could we contribute? What economic, financial, and industrial tools do we have at our disposal to use? Whats the besy course of action here?

There are many ways to support. It's a shame that discussions of ALAV and runnign continous cycling of the LAV fleet are still in early talks. Having a system in place that sees the Canadian Army receive constantly in a state of incremental refreshment means a steady supply of retiring, but still very much usable equipment available for things like donation.

Of course there will be some that try to position things like drone production here as a major potential, and while I have advocated for greater cooperation with Ukrainian industry as a whole, including in leveraging potential manufacturing opportunities, I struggle to see us overtaking others like the UK, Norway, or Germany who are already upscaling drone production in suport of Ukraine that benefit from closer integration, shorter supply lines, and a muxh more prepared industry.

That isn't to say we can't, however when it comes to the industrial side of things we do need to discuss what Canada's niches might be, and where our time and effort might best be spent. Its better to support a few niches that try to capture as much big industry as we can.

Outside that, financial support, industrial support, and support in fields like energy, health, and infrastructure also remain key avenues Canada could benefit in supporting. I mean, we already have an inroad with Chrystia Freeland taking a position on Zelenskyys team as an Economic advisor!

I tend to stay out of politics like that, at least in the first two or three days. Yes, I like to be quick and be on top of things, but I already try to avoid political back and forth when I can. However it deserves a mention that she is taking up this position, and does remain an inroad to the Ukrainian government that, if I can be morally bankrupt for a moment, could be exploited to secure Canadian involvement and benefit int he post-war rebuild.

I promise i’m not a corrupt oligarch! However it isnt like others aint thinking about it…. I'm just saying it out in the open. Take advantage of the people you have abroad, especially if they're in key positions.

Anyways! This is again a first step. I don't wanna dogpile on this like others, even if I wished for more details, more concrete plans. The framework is out there now, and the Euros have decided on their role to play after much back and forth. I just hope that they can stick to these plans and deliver on them substantially.