Thanks, Noah, for all of your hard work to keep us well informed about the CPSP as well as the many other projects now emerging during this most fascinating period of Canadian defence procurement.
I, too, would like to thank Noah for all of the effort and time expended in this past year, to keep all of us on the outside looking in, informed of whatever progress was made available. Many, many thanks! Rest for a few minutes. Take a day for yourself. Big things are about to happen!
Obviously I’m not privy to the full bid but I was a big supporter of the Korean option. I’m very concerned and skeptical about the German ability to meet the timeframe for delivery.
I wonder, why nobody's asking for TKMS delivery schedule of remaining eight subs, after first four will be delivered (hopfully) by 2036? Don't both Germany and Norway need to build up own fleets first? Also, considering possible war with Russia, what EU is so intensively preparing for now, it'll likely be force majeure in contract and it affects delivery schedule as well. I don't think Canada will be ready for full cycle local manufacturing by 2036. So, I take this contract as high risk agreement, but in ten years all the participants will be out of scope already :-)
My hunch is that TKMS will stand up a second production line so they can do full assembly and foundational integration simultaneously on two boats. I think that’s the answer. With an overnight doubling of their order book (it’s literally the middle of the night in Germany), and increased potential for future sales of the type, I think TKMS will have the confidence to commit to a second line.
Tkms is in the process of standing up a second production line in Kiel which should be nearing completion. This was announced some time ago in an effort to speed up deliveries.
Thanks for the clarification. I had meant that they would generally need to start a second dedicated 212CD line in one of their facilities, noting that they already utilize two sites for sub production.
Yes. That’s right and I agree. I think this will happen. It must happen with 24 subs in the que. ordering a fleet and having a fleet are 2 different things. The Germans know all this and I believe will respond accordingly. Huge anxiety around here about delivery schedules. I believe they can do it.
I expect Canada to be an effective negotiator with TKMS with delivery schedule being critical. Barely reading between the lines in the PMs speech and Q&A, he made it clear that Canada would be acquiring *up to* 12 subs and would, of course, *preserve flexibility* and Hanwah Ocean would remain the reserve supplier in the event negotiations with TKMS go awry. Negotiating TKMS' largest order in history gives us a ton of leverage, but time is of the essence and TKMS knows that Canada is unlikely to walk and need to burn at least a year initiating negotiations for the KSS-III.
I think they were also looking to set up a sub production line at the Wismar facility that they acquired a couple years back that is under going upgrades.
Guys, what I mean that Germany and Norway might become a war zone soon and every production line will be in russian missles target list. In that case all subs delivery will be suspended for unknown period of time. And what would be canadian plan B? Go to "reserved" SK partner for help again?
In fairness, if Russia launched a general war against NATO and succeeded in putting key strategic German industries out of action, the delivery dates of our subs in the 2030s and 40s wouldn't be our top concern.
I actually think that should such an incident occur getting more subs quicker could actually become a priority. With Hanwa during wartime we could have simply substantially increased our order during the que and they could increase their build schedule over the one per year. Not certain TKMS could ever build theirs in that timeline.
I wouldn't be surprised if after Couney's era is over, new gov. of Canada will make additional deal with Hanwha (or some other manufacturer) for extra subs, to cover Pacific and Atlantic coasts ASAP, having four TKMS boats to patrol Arctic area. It seems TKMS production lines will be pretty much booked for next decade.
Noah, echoing others, I want to personally thank you for all of the work you do and express my appreciation at what you have created with TNSR.
I first stumbled upon it after reading a random comment in the SkyScraperPage forum and could not be more pleased to have found such an incredible resource. It has let a long-simmering but unanchored interest in Canadian defense policy and procurement blossom in ways that I had not anticipated would be possible to a layman outside of the defense sector. I now consider myself conversant about a range of programs and TNSR served as a starting point to put me in a position where I could really dig into the CPSP process and have an informed opinion.
Please pat yourself on the back for the tremendous amount of work you have put into your coverage of the CPSP. Take a well-earned break, buy your contacts a beer when you see them next, and keep us appraised on how it develops in the months and years to come.
Thanks for all your incredible work. It IS appreciated.
The government team is still advocating for “up to 12 submarines”, whereas for a 3 ocean navy, 12 is a minimum. Even at the government level they seem to understand that to generate a submarine at sea for 24/7, 365 days a year, takes 4 submarines. The intent is to have one sub on task in each ocean. So 12. Anything less requires guffaws and rationalization. Typically armed forces must plan on redundancy, to have enough for combat, to be able to replace initial combat losses. To be serious, Canada must consider a production capability. Produce 212CDs? Perhaps submersible drones that can work with the 212CDs, produced at scale (3 USVs per sub?).
I think 12 becomes our new floor and it will put us in a position to begin deciding what capabilities we want to enhance in the medium- to long-term. For example, if we find from experience that we want/need greater endurance for Indo-Pacific obligations, perhaps we order a sub-fleet (pun intended) of the 212CD-E expeditionary version of the platform? This was originally conceived for the Netherlands and it lengthened the hull to provide more volume for additional AIP feed stock, greater battery capacity, and more racks to support a larger crew.
I think that domestic 212cd production is unrealistic. By the time we stand up the capacity, we won't want to devote it to a 25 year old design. But we already have a nascent USV industry, one that is itching to see explosive growth. I think we could be building companion XL-USV in 10 to 15 years, so I'm on board for that.
All things being equal, it looks like Canada has chosen Politics over Risk Management. If TKMS promised 4 subs by 2034 and they don't deliver, I hope that they write significant financial penalties into the contract, because that probably cost the Koreans the most. I'm assuming they didn't know about that accelerated timescale or for sure they would have countered.
But now, Canada is throwing their hat into the ring of chance - this is a design that has not been built yet. What if some flaw in the design is discovered after construction, especially if TKMS cuts corners if pressured to meet contract deadlines? And what about all the prospective weapon systems that have spent decades in developmental hell and may never work? I just hope this doesn't end up with another Victoria-class maintenance debacle.
The TKMS bid is less risky, with a long list of export customers and NATO integration. As well, South Korea announcing recently that they want to launch a nuclear powered sub by 2035 added risk to their bid as resources would have to be allocated between their new nuclear fleet and the KSS III they wanted to sell to us.
EU situation (and so, European military manufacturing) getting to be more unstable and unpredictable, after US moving out from there. In comparison, China still controls their satellites in Asia and will try to prevent any serious conflicts between them.
Thanks, Noah, for all of your hard work to keep us well informed about the CPSP as well as the many other projects now emerging during this most fascinating period of Canadian defence procurement.
I, too, would like to thank Noah for all of the effort and time expended in this past year, to keep all of us on the outside looking in, informed of whatever progress was made available. Many, many thanks! Rest for a few minutes. Take a day for yourself. Big things are about to happen!
Obviously I’m not privy to the full bid but I was a big supporter of the Korean option. I’m very concerned and skeptical about the German ability to meet the timeframe for delivery.
I wonder, why nobody's asking for TKMS delivery schedule of remaining eight subs, after first four will be delivered (hopfully) by 2036? Don't both Germany and Norway need to build up own fleets first? Also, considering possible war with Russia, what EU is so intensively preparing for now, it'll likely be force majeure in contract and it affects delivery schedule as well. I don't think Canada will be ready for full cycle local manufacturing by 2036. So, I take this contract as high risk agreement, but in ten years all the participants will be out of scope already :-)
My hunch is that TKMS will stand up a second production line so they can do full assembly and foundational integration simultaneously on two boats. I think that’s the answer. With an overnight doubling of their order book (it’s literally the middle of the night in Germany), and increased potential for future sales of the type, I think TKMS will have the confidence to commit to a second line.
Tkms is in the process of standing up a second production line in Kiel which should be nearing completion. This was announced some time ago in an effort to speed up deliveries.
Thanks for the clarification. I had meant that they would generally need to start a second dedicated 212CD line in one of their facilities, noting that they already utilize two sites for sub production.
Yes. That’s right and I agree. I think this will happen. It must happen with 24 subs in the que. ordering a fleet and having a fleet are 2 different things. The Germans know all this and I believe will respond accordingly. Huge anxiety around here about delivery schedules. I believe they can do it.
I expect Canada to be an effective negotiator with TKMS with delivery schedule being critical. Barely reading between the lines in the PMs speech and Q&A, he made it clear that Canada would be acquiring *up to* 12 subs and would, of course, *preserve flexibility* and Hanwah Ocean would remain the reserve supplier in the event negotiations with TKMS go awry. Negotiating TKMS' largest order in history gives us a ton of leverage, but time is of the essence and TKMS knows that Canada is unlikely to walk and need to burn at least a year initiating negotiations for the KSS-III.
I think they were also looking to set up a sub production line at the Wismar facility that they acquired a couple years back that is under going upgrades.
Guys, what I mean that Germany and Norway might become a war zone soon and every production line will be in russian missles target list. In that case all subs delivery will be suspended for unknown period of time. And what would be canadian plan B? Go to "reserved" SK partner for help again?
In fairness, if Russia launched a general war against NATO and succeeded in putting key strategic German industries out of action, the delivery dates of our subs in the 2030s and 40s wouldn't be our top concern.
I actually think that should such an incident occur getting more subs quicker could actually become a priority. With Hanwa during wartime we could have simply substantially increased our order during the que and they could increase their build schedule over the one per year. Not certain TKMS could ever build theirs in that timeline.
I wouldn't be surprised if after Couney's era is over, new gov. of Canada will make additional deal with Hanwha (or some other manufacturer) for extra subs, to cover Pacific and Atlantic coasts ASAP, having four TKMS boats to patrol Arctic area. It seems TKMS production lines will be pretty much booked for next decade.
Noah, echoing others, I want to personally thank you for all of the work you do and express my appreciation at what you have created with TNSR.
I first stumbled upon it after reading a random comment in the SkyScraperPage forum and could not be more pleased to have found such an incredible resource. It has let a long-simmering but unanchored interest in Canadian defense policy and procurement blossom in ways that I had not anticipated would be possible to a layman outside of the defense sector. I now consider myself conversant about a range of programs and TNSR served as a starting point to put me in a position where I could really dig into the CPSP process and have an informed opinion.
Please pat yourself on the back for the tremendous amount of work you have put into your coverage of the CPSP. Take a well-earned break, buy your contacts a beer when you see them next, and keep us appraised on how it develops in the months and years to come.
Thanks for all your incredible work. It IS appreciated.
The government team is still advocating for “up to 12 submarines”, whereas for a 3 ocean navy, 12 is a minimum. Even at the government level they seem to understand that to generate a submarine at sea for 24/7, 365 days a year, takes 4 submarines. The intent is to have one sub on task in each ocean. So 12. Anything less requires guffaws and rationalization. Typically armed forces must plan on redundancy, to have enough for combat, to be able to replace initial combat losses. To be serious, Canada must consider a production capability. Produce 212CDs? Perhaps submersible drones that can work with the 212CDs, produced at scale (3 USVs per sub?).
I think 12 becomes our new floor and it will put us in a position to begin deciding what capabilities we want to enhance in the medium- to long-term. For example, if we find from experience that we want/need greater endurance for Indo-Pacific obligations, perhaps we order a sub-fleet (pun intended) of the 212CD-E expeditionary version of the platform? This was originally conceived for the Netherlands and it lengthened the hull to provide more volume for additional AIP feed stock, greater battery capacity, and more racks to support a larger crew.
I think that domestic 212cd production is unrealistic. By the time we stand up the capacity, we won't want to devote it to a 25 year old design. But we already have a nascent USV industry, one that is itching to see explosive growth. I think we could be building companion XL-USV in 10 to 15 years, so I'm on board for that.
All things being equal, it looks like Canada has chosen Politics over Risk Management. If TKMS promised 4 subs by 2034 and they don't deliver, I hope that they write significant financial penalties into the contract, because that probably cost the Koreans the most. I'm assuming they didn't know about that accelerated timescale or for sure they would have countered.
But now, Canada is throwing their hat into the ring of chance - this is a design that has not been built yet. What if some flaw in the design is discovered after construction, especially if TKMS cuts corners if pressured to meet contract deadlines? And what about all the prospective weapon systems that have spent decades in developmental hell and may never work? I just hope this doesn't end up with another Victoria-class maintenance debacle.
The TKMS bid is less risky, with a long list of export customers and NATO integration. As well, South Korea announcing recently that they want to launch a nuclear powered sub by 2035 added risk to their bid as resources would have to be allocated between their new nuclear fleet and the KSS III they wanted to sell to us.
EU situation (and so, European military manufacturing) getting to be more unstable and unpredictable, after US moving out from there. In comparison, China still controls their satellites in Asia and will try to prevent any serious conflicts between them.
I was really surprised that Kraken didn't get a chance to talk. But I'm sure that he's gonna have enough time in front of a mic soon enough.
Thanks! Now get some rest before burning out!