So, if we signed today, and everything went according to plan with no delays, we'd get our FIRST locally produced Gripen in 2035, three years after the CF-18s retire and the F-35s have entered service.
I missed one word 😭 supposed to say after contract.
By the current proposal (and I note it is a proposal) if we signed right now the first Gripen would be delivered from Sweden in three years, so 2029 and the first Canadian Gripen in 2031.
That’s similar to the Brazilian experience. Over the first 11 years, SAAB delivered 10 jets before Brazil produced its first jet (essentially a prototype to my mind). So since we are close to 2027, the first SAAB Gripen wouldn’t really arrive until 2030. The first Canadian Gripen would be punched out in 2032, which is when the last of the 88 F-35s are to be delivered. On the other hand, the first of the GCAP Gen6 jets are to be delivered in 2035. We’re going to be in the middle of production of a Gen4 jet while Gen6 jets are rolling off the assembly line? Also, the only company with a full aircraft production capability, Bombardier, is not willing to divert itself into building a fighter jet with an obsolete airframe design. IMP does not appear to have the capacity in terms of infrastructure and personnel (where do you find all these engineers and technicians in Nova Scotia?). Meanwhile Dominion Dynamics will be producing supersonic drones ( the Scout) in Canada with kinetic and CCA potential in a few months (2027). We could have our fleet of F-35s complemented by a fleet of Scout CCAs by 2030 as the first CF-35 squadron reaches IOC. To my mind I’d put my money on Dominion Dynamics and their Scout, a fully Canadian aerospace capability with a capacity to build to scale, less expensive than the Gripen and with technology of the time. With that in place, Canada could decide if, when and how it would contribute to and take on delivery of the GCAP. If the F-35 becomes problematic, perhaps an option would be to have Global 6500s act as motherships to Scout CCAs. In any case, as I go through the general scenario, the timing and technology of the SAAB proposal just doesn’t make sense. Like 95% of most Canadians, I don’t like the F-35 remote software update process that is controlled by LM either. I believe nations will work to have some leverage as there will be a global withdrawal of U.S. control in general, which could enable some sovereign control CF-35 software input and modification.
I think your points are valid but think there are a few issues that are still potentially problematic:
- How likely is the GCAP to be operational in 2035? Given the usual problems with new systems, international partnerships, delays, etc., when would Canada realistically get its first fighter from this program? When would it be operational? How much could we jump the queue of the three partners? Maybe we don’t want one until 2040 or so, but I’m not betting on as much overlap as you indicate.
- Is it certain that a CCA would have the capabilities to replace even a fourth generation fighter? If this were a valid option, why would we purchase all the F35’s on order?
- I have trouble believing that LM (or the US military) is ever likely to share enough of the F35’s source code to enable local modification. Why would they at this point? If US defence contractors aren’t sharing basic stuff with the US military, why would they share with foreign militaries?
Having said that, and as much as I would like to see the Gripen with a maple leaf roundel, I get that it is a ridiculously tough stretch. I have yet to see the two options costed out and until we know what a mixed fleet would cost, I don’t think the discussion can be complete.
So, if we signed today, and everything went according to plan with no delays, we'd get our FIRST locally produced Gripen in 2035, three years after the CF-18s retire and the F-35s have entered service.
I missed one word 😭 supposed to say after contract.
By the current proposal (and I note it is a proposal) if we signed right now the first Gripen would be delivered from Sweden in three years, so 2029 and the first Canadian Gripen in 2031.
That’s similar to the Brazilian experience. Over the first 11 years, SAAB delivered 10 jets before Brazil produced its first jet (essentially a prototype to my mind). So since we are close to 2027, the first SAAB Gripen wouldn’t really arrive until 2030. The first Canadian Gripen would be punched out in 2032, which is when the last of the 88 F-35s are to be delivered. On the other hand, the first of the GCAP Gen6 jets are to be delivered in 2035. We’re going to be in the middle of production of a Gen4 jet while Gen6 jets are rolling off the assembly line? Also, the only company with a full aircraft production capability, Bombardier, is not willing to divert itself into building a fighter jet with an obsolete airframe design. IMP does not appear to have the capacity in terms of infrastructure and personnel (where do you find all these engineers and technicians in Nova Scotia?). Meanwhile Dominion Dynamics will be producing supersonic drones ( the Scout) in Canada with kinetic and CCA potential in a few months (2027). We could have our fleet of F-35s complemented by a fleet of Scout CCAs by 2030 as the first CF-35 squadron reaches IOC. To my mind I’d put my money on Dominion Dynamics and their Scout, a fully Canadian aerospace capability with a capacity to build to scale, less expensive than the Gripen and with technology of the time. With that in place, Canada could decide if, when and how it would contribute to and take on delivery of the GCAP. If the F-35 becomes problematic, perhaps an option would be to have Global 6500s act as motherships to Scout CCAs. In any case, as I go through the general scenario, the timing and technology of the SAAB proposal just doesn’t make sense. Like 95% of most Canadians, I don’t like the F-35 remote software update process that is controlled by LM either. I believe nations will work to have some leverage as there will be a global withdrawal of U.S. control in general, which could enable some sovereign control CF-35 software input and modification.
I think your points are valid but think there are a few issues that are still potentially problematic:
- How likely is the GCAP to be operational in 2035? Given the usual problems with new systems, international partnerships, delays, etc., when would Canada realistically get its first fighter from this program? When would it be operational? How much could we jump the queue of the three partners? Maybe we don’t want one until 2040 or so, but I’m not betting on as much overlap as you indicate.
- Is it certain that a CCA would have the capabilities to replace even a fourth generation fighter? If this were a valid option, why would we purchase all the F35’s on order?
- I have trouble believing that LM (or the US military) is ever likely to share enough of the F35’s source code to enable local modification. Why would they at this point? If US defence contractors aren’t sharing basic stuff with the US military, why would they share with foreign militaries?
Having said that, and as much as I would like to see the Gripen with a maple leaf roundel, I get that it is a ridiculously tough stretch. I have yet to see the two options costed out and until we know what a mixed fleet would cost, I don’t think the discussion can be complete.