I really appreciated this, Noah. I’m in my fifties, and I lived through the end of the Cold War thinking, like many, that we had finally figured out how not to blow ourselves up. I also grew up on stories from my family who lived through the Second World War in Ukraine and became refugees, so I know first hand that world orders do expire.
What resonates most is your rejection of ego, panic, and the urge to solve geopolitics in a few hot takes. Real strength is not loud. It is practical preparation. It is community. It is resilience. It is the quiet work of building systems that still function when the headlines get strange.
Security is not just missiles and borders. It is neighbours, healthcare, and people who show up when things break. That is what actually makes societies durable.
And if history has taught me anything, it is that calm, prepared people tend to outlast the loud, confident ones. Which is oddly comforting.
Thank you Noah, that was what I needed to hear. Not only did it resonate with me, I had to go watch the speech that you mentioned, and I'm glad I did. I hope Canada sticks the landing when it comes to, well, everything, but especially civil defense and the preparedness for the unexpected that goes with that. I've talked to several military members who are extremely skeptical of the whole idea, but it inspires me. Even if I think it needs a lot of work to work.
We have to grow up like many other countries that have depended on the USA way too much.. We assumed they would be sane and they have shown themselves not to be. Buckle up.
I’m more than twice your age and yes, my generation grew up with fear too. Fear of nuclear destruction. We used to have drills in school and our town, with an emergency siren and all. I think WWII affected my mother a lot. She was a historian and teacher, and used to tell us stories about growing up during the war, and the discovery of Auschwitz. Horrified my brother and I, and I think we grew up being very wary of evil, especially evil-in-disguise.
Having said that I understand your angst. But at the same time I envy you for your youth. You’ll be around to see what happens. I’d give almost anything to live another 50 years, I think. Mostly because I believe trump will fail, and I want my Nuremberg.
As a Canadian in their early 30’s this also resonated. What once felt like the golden age of unification was just around the corner now feels like a distant dream and it’s deflating rather than anger inducing. The rise of new “emperors” and building walls between nations rather than bridges feels like a needless step back for humanity. We are supposed to be better than this, but I guess the sad truth is we aren’t- at least not yet.
Noah, once again, great post. I feel everything you feel. I have hope for the future, but it comes from the Canadian people using this opportunity to reinvigorate democracy and civic life. If people get engaged, really engaged, if they view active participation in democratic and community life as obligations of citizenship, then I think something good will come out of this. If we cast off market-driven individualism and think instead in terms of what is good for all of us, then I think we can come out stronger.
I have been a student of history for many years & while the thought of a US Invasion has seemed remote in years past…… I am reminded how quickly Austria was taken over by the Nazi’s….& how Chamberlain gave up on Czechoslovakia waving his peace in our time paper, which of course guarenteed nothing & lost the Czech’s there country. The safety & security of a country lives on a fine edge & can be lost quickly…with no time to protest or yell. While this is “probably” Trumps way to get his way yet again I doubt I will trust the USA ever again…. i am reminded of that yet again today after reading that 20% of Americans think adding Canada would be a good idea.
It's good you captured this moment of how you truly felt in writing and hold unto it dearly, so when things get better in the future and you find a role to play to ensure the world remains so, you take it with both hands and fight vehemently to keep it so.
Now, Noah imagine how citizens in countries not even half as developed as Canada feel about their future with the kind of failed leadership they have, who are hellbent on not changing the status quo and keeping their people truly repressed.
Yes, let's all hope there is some kind of off ramp for Trump's destructive behaviour. I also grew up with "duck and cover" and the air raid siren in my large Ontario city was three linear miles away and very loud. The skies are currently cloudy but the sun always comes back. Have faith.
I have, oof, a couple of decades on you. My young Gen-Xer/Elder Millennial (or Xennial, I suppose) self remembers the collapse of the USSR. At the time I was too young to appreciate everything that it meant, especially for the people on that side of the Cold War. Several decades on as an adult, with a better understanding of history and human nature, that really feels like the closest, if imperfect, analogue to current events. Not the minor shuffles, or gradual ascent or descent of national powers in the intervening years, but a complete upending of the proverbial apple cart. At least for NATO and its close allies.
I would be lying if I said I wasn't a bit scared, or very angry when I think about what could happen in the not-too-distant future. How people could knowingly and willingly choose insecurity and instability for the sake of their own benefit. It's irrational. Self-centred, self aggrandizing, narcissistic madness. How so many people are happy to go along with it, or at least keep their heads down enough to let it happen. You only have to look at the chaos, conflict, and frequently shifting maps in Eastern Europe to see where this could go. And yes, the threat of an actual invasion is incredibly slim, but that is not 'none'. Something that was unthinkable and not worthy of serious consideration a couple of years ago, suddenly is.
And while I am reluctant to draw parallels to Germany in the 30s while looking at the situation south of our border, because this, while bad, is not that, but... things keep happening and it would be very dangerous to think that it couldn't. Like a famous nerd once said, "It's like poetry, they rhyme".
But yes, now is not the time for panic or alarmism, or to make irrational decisions of our own. I think PM Carney struck the right tone at Davos today in highlighting the need to find a new way forward, and to maintain alliances and forge new ones where we can. While there are many elements that feel similar to the collapse of the USSR, it's not the same, and we fallen over that precipice yet. We haven't really crossed the point of no return. That said, if things do settle down, I hope we actually learn from this experience. Blind trust and faith are naive.
There are, I hope, even a few positives that come of this. A renewed sense of Canadian identity and purpose on the world stage. And understanding of the importance of foreign relations and national defence and being prepared for as many eventualities as possible. A belief in the need to safeguard democracy and democratic institutions. ...And probably wishful thinking, but a healthy skepticism in social media and an awareness of, and need to deal with foreign influence in our traditional media and politics. ...Who said I couldn't play the optimist?
Okay, that's enough semi-coherent ramblings, I'm gonna shut up now.
Hey Noah, I've been following your stack for a while now and I really appreciate what you do for a small subsect of Canadian society that cares enough to stay up to date with defence matters in a way that isn't AI generated.
I'm in the same boat as you, born and raised at the height of the Liberal International Order/Pax Americana and the start of the GWOT, only to see the steady decay of every assumption we had about global politics since 1991 as I was going through school. My fear is that in our typical complacency or attempts to numb ourselves to despair, that Canadians will settle back into thinking that everything that is happening geopolitically is just a temporary inconvenience.
History swings in like a pendulum but the pendulum swinging towards better days only happens when people are willing to put their blood sweat and tears into making that happen. Whether we come out of this better as a country isn't a given because Canada is dealing with a separatism problem at a time when unity is needed more than ever to get our own house in order, and I think that says a lot about us as a people. Our entitlement in thinking that our generous welfare programs are the sole responsibility of government should have died with the first Trump presidency. I'm tired of seeing our country be another symbol of the West's decline and for pundits to speak of the potential we may never realize because we squabble over inconsequential and/or short sighted things like putting up trade barriers against our fellow Canadians.
There needs to be more of the brutal honesty that the current PM is offering, the kind of talk that makes it obvious to any literate person that there will be consequences to complacency and sacrifices ahead for a sustained period of time (which is arguably something that Canadians haven't heard since the 1980s). If Canada is to survive in the "return of history", we'll need to be uncompromising in gearing up economically and militarily like it was the 1930s again, and I really hope that Canadians get into that kind of mindset for the decade(s) ahead.
I remember being home from University for my birthday watching the Wall fall on TV. I remember one of my classmates coming into the auditorium and announcing that they started dropping bombs on Baghdad and the shaken prof dismissed the class. I remember the geopolitical optimism of the mid-90s when it seemed that the World had finally turned a corner, only to be hit in the face with ethnic cleansing and genocide in the Balkans and Rwanda. I remember watching the second tower fall with my 4-month-old son sleeping beside me on the couch. I remember the hope of Obama and JT's 'sunny ways' whiplashing into Brexit and the Trump Administration. I remember the hollowness in my gut watching Putin invade my great-grandparents' ancestral homeland.
You just have to accept the way things change, influence where you can, enjoy the simple things while they're still available, and try and make contingency plans for if things go south.
I really appreciated this, Noah. I’m in my fifties, and I lived through the end of the Cold War thinking, like many, that we had finally figured out how not to blow ourselves up. I also grew up on stories from my family who lived through the Second World War in Ukraine and became refugees, so I know first hand that world orders do expire.
What resonates most is your rejection of ego, panic, and the urge to solve geopolitics in a few hot takes. Real strength is not loud. It is practical preparation. It is community. It is resilience. It is the quiet work of building systems that still function when the headlines get strange.
Security is not just missiles and borders. It is neighbours, healthcare, and people who show up when things break. That is what actually makes societies durable.
And if history has taught me anything, it is that calm, prepared people tend to outlast the loud, confident ones. Which is oddly comforting.
Well said!
Thank you Noah, that was what I needed to hear. Not only did it resonate with me, I had to go watch the speech that you mentioned, and I'm glad I did. I hope Canada sticks the landing when it comes to, well, everything, but especially civil defense and the preparedness for the unexpected that goes with that. I've talked to several military members who are extremely skeptical of the whole idea, but it inspires me. Even if I think it needs a lot of work to work.
I definitely got the same feeling from Carney's speech this morning, blunt, truthful and to the point.
We have to grow up like many other countries that have depended on the USA way too much.. We assumed they would be sane and they have shown themselves not to be. Buckle up.
I’m more than twice your age and yes, my generation grew up with fear too. Fear of nuclear destruction. We used to have drills in school and our town, with an emergency siren and all. I think WWII affected my mother a lot. She was a historian and teacher, and used to tell us stories about growing up during the war, and the discovery of Auschwitz. Horrified my brother and I, and I think we grew up being very wary of evil, especially evil-in-disguise.
Having said that I understand your angst. But at the same time I envy you for your youth. You’ll be around to see what happens. I’d give almost anything to live another 50 years, I think. Mostly because I believe trump will fail, and I want my Nuremberg.
As a Canadian in their early 30’s this also resonated. What once felt like the golden age of unification was just around the corner now feels like a distant dream and it’s deflating rather than anger inducing. The rise of new “emperors” and building walls between nations rather than bridges feels like a needless step back for humanity. We are supposed to be better than this, but I guess the sad truth is we aren’t- at least not yet.
Noah, once again, great post. I feel everything you feel. I have hope for the future, but it comes from the Canadian people using this opportunity to reinvigorate democracy and civic life. If people get engaged, really engaged, if they view active participation in democratic and community life as obligations of citizenship, then I think something good will come out of this. If we cast off market-driven individualism and think instead in terms of what is good for all of us, then I think we can come out stronger.
I have been a student of history for many years & while the thought of a US Invasion has seemed remote in years past…… I am reminded how quickly Austria was taken over by the Nazi’s….& how Chamberlain gave up on Czechoslovakia waving his peace in our time paper, which of course guarenteed nothing & lost the Czech’s there country. The safety & security of a country lives on a fine edge & can be lost quickly…with no time to protest or yell. While this is “probably” Trumps way to get his way yet again I doubt I will trust the USA ever again…. i am reminded of that yet again today after reading that 20% of Americans think adding Canada would be a good idea.
It's good you captured this moment of how you truly felt in writing and hold unto it dearly, so when things get better in the future and you find a role to play to ensure the world remains so, you take it with both hands and fight vehemently to keep it so.
Now, Noah imagine how citizens in countries not even half as developed as Canada feel about their future with the kind of failed leadership they have, who are hellbent on not changing the status quo and keeping their people truly repressed.
Yes, let's all hope there is some kind of off ramp for Trump's destructive behaviour. I also grew up with "duck and cover" and the air raid siren in my large Ontario city was three linear miles away and very loud. The skies are currently cloudy but the sun always comes back. Have faith.
I have, oof, a couple of decades on you. My young Gen-Xer/Elder Millennial (or Xennial, I suppose) self remembers the collapse of the USSR. At the time I was too young to appreciate everything that it meant, especially for the people on that side of the Cold War. Several decades on as an adult, with a better understanding of history and human nature, that really feels like the closest, if imperfect, analogue to current events. Not the minor shuffles, or gradual ascent or descent of national powers in the intervening years, but a complete upending of the proverbial apple cart. At least for NATO and its close allies.
I would be lying if I said I wasn't a bit scared, or very angry when I think about what could happen in the not-too-distant future. How people could knowingly and willingly choose insecurity and instability for the sake of their own benefit. It's irrational. Self-centred, self aggrandizing, narcissistic madness. How so many people are happy to go along with it, or at least keep their heads down enough to let it happen. You only have to look at the chaos, conflict, and frequently shifting maps in Eastern Europe to see where this could go. And yes, the threat of an actual invasion is incredibly slim, but that is not 'none'. Something that was unthinkable and not worthy of serious consideration a couple of years ago, suddenly is.
And while I am reluctant to draw parallels to Germany in the 30s while looking at the situation south of our border, because this, while bad, is not that, but... things keep happening and it would be very dangerous to think that it couldn't. Like a famous nerd once said, "It's like poetry, they rhyme".
But yes, now is not the time for panic or alarmism, or to make irrational decisions of our own. I think PM Carney struck the right tone at Davos today in highlighting the need to find a new way forward, and to maintain alliances and forge new ones where we can. While there are many elements that feel similar to the collapse of the USSR, it's not the same, and we fallen over that precipice yet. We haven't really crossed the point of no return. That said, if things do settle down, I hope we actually learn from this experience. Blind trust and faith are naive.
There are, I hope, even a few positives that come of this. A renewed sense of Canadian identity and purpose on the world stage. And understanding of the importance of foreign relations and national defence and being prepared for as many eventualities as possible. A belief in the need to safeguard democracy and democratic institutions. ...And probably wishful thinking, but a healthy skepticism in social media and an awareness of, and need to deal with foreign influence in our traditional media and politics. ...Who said I couldn't play the optimist?
Okay, that's enough semi-coherent ramblings, I'm gonna shut up now.
IMO You hit the nails on the head when you suggested: “this is a great opportunity to discuss things like Civil Defence”!
Hey Noah, I've been following your stack for a while now and I really appreciate what you do for a small subsect of Canadian society that cares enough to stay up to date with defence matters in a way that isn't AI generated.
I'm in the same boat as you, born and raised at the height of the Liberal International Order/Pax Americana and the start of the GWOT, only to see the steady decay of every assumption we had about global politics since 1991 as I was going through school. My fear is that in our typical complacency or attempts to numb ourselves to despair, that Canadians will settle back into thinking that everything that is happening geopolitically is just a temporary inconvenience.
History swings in like a pendulum but the pendulum swinging towards better days only happens when people are willing to put their blood sweat and tears into making that happen. Whether we come out of this better as a country isn't a given because Canada is dealing with a separatism problem at a time when unity is needed more than ever to get our own house in order, and I think that says a lot about us as a people. Our entitlement in thinking that our generous welfare programs are the sole responsibility of government should have died with the first Trump presidency. I'm tired of seeing our country be another symbol of the West's decline and for pundits to speak of the potential we may never realize because we squabble over inconsequential and/or short sighted things like putting up trade barriers against our fellow Canadians.
There needs to be more of the brutal honesty that the current PM is offering, the kind of talk that makes it obvious to any literate person that there will be consequences to complacency and sacrifices ahead for a sustained period of time (which is arguably something that Canadians haven't heard since the 1980s). If Canada is to survive in the "return of history", we'll need to be uncompromising in gearing up economically and militarily like it was the 1930s again, and I really hope that Canadians get into that kind of mindset for the decade(s) ahead.
I remember being home from University for my birthday watching the Wall fall on TV. I remember one of my classmates coming into the auditorium and announcing that they started dropping bombs on Baghdad and the shaken prof dismissed the class. I remember the geopolitical optimism of the mid-90s when it seemed that the World had finally turned a corner, only to be hit in the face with ethnic cleansing and genocide in the Balkans and Rwanda. I remember watching the second tower fall with my 4-month-old son sleeping beside me on the couch. I remember the hope of Obama and JT's 'sunny ways' whiplashing into Brexit and the Trump Administration. I remember the hollowness in my gut watching Putin invade my great-grandparents' ancestral homeland.
You just have to accept the way things change, influence where you can, enjoy the simple things while they're still available, and try and make contingency plans for if things go south.