The Anchor: What TKMS Offers To Canada
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If you happened to talk to the team at TKMS during CANSEC, you might not have believed that we were facing down possibly the biggest decision in Canadian defence history.
TKMS are the people I probably spent the most time with at CANSEC. I always love seeing the team, with whom I don't get to interact often. I also had yet to meet CEO Oliver Burkhard, who I kept missing! The TKMS team invited me to spend some time with them at the show, mostly just to check in and see how I was, but I did end up spending a good hour with them!
One might expect to find a team that was stressed, running around, and incredibly busy. Instead, what I found was a group laughing, smiling, and overall just trying to enjoy the show. No panic. No worry.
You learn quickly about routines with TKMS. For them, this sort of stuff is a constant: the shows, the complex competitions, the timelines, and the wait on that final decision. When you're the Western World's premier submarine builder, these sorts of things just become part of your daily life.
The same team running CPSP are also the ones who handled the India deal, are engaging in Greece and South America, and are working on scaling up the company's new yard in Wismar. To them, the competition, the fight, never ends. That's what happens when you're the world's largest submarine exporter.
Having the chance to see them at CANSEC, as you can imagine, was a wonderful opportunity to reengage with the team about CPSP. As you can imagine, they're busy people! So, them going out of their way to not only invite me over but to give me their full, undivided attention was a rare chance for me to really question them and get down into their mindset as we look to a final decision in maybe the next week.
And so, that's what I did. Question after question; concept after concept. I wanted the story; I wanted to know why. I wanted to see the bigger picture that I kept hearing existed but didn't necessarily see. I wanted to know what, deep down, TKMS really thought about Canada and our place in their world.
And they spared nothing for me. They answered, they explained; they laid it all out for me as clearly as can be in a way I don't think I had pieced together before. And so, that's what I'm here to do today: to relay the vision, to allow TKMS to provide their concept, and to give them the space to make their case.
I can safely say I came back with reflection, with a much better understanding of TKMS, their ecosystem, and how they want to integrate Canada into their family, as they call it. I have always said that TNSR is an open space, where people can be free to present themselves, their vision, and make their case to the public forum. That's what we're doing today because I don't think there is anyone who has written out the vision quite as the company sees it; if they entrust me to present that, then I shall.
So, consider this the breakdown, the dissection; the breakdown piece by piece of what TKMS is, what they plan to do, and what they envision a Canadian presence in the TKMS ecosystem looking like.
TKMS - The Maritime Powerhouse
To understand a company, you do need to refresh on its history. So, before we jump into things, let's refresh ourselves on TKMS and its current status as they have presented it.
For TKMS, that history carries almost two hundred years of experience in the construction of submarines, dating back to the construction of the Brandtaucher by Schweffel & Howaldt in 1850. That early spark ignited an industrial legacy in Kiel, transforming the Baltic port city into the undisputed, beating heart of global submarine construction; a title it fiercely defends to this day. Walk through Kiel, and you are walking through the birthplace of the modern conventional submarine. (If you’re ever in Dresden, you can actually visit the preserved Brandtaucher at the Bundeswehr Military History Museum!)
Following the war, the Kriegsmarine was dissolved, shipyards were stripped, and research was prohibited. It was not until the mid-1950s, with the hardening of the Iron Curtain and the integration of West Germany into NATO, that the prohibition was lifted. That is when Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW), the last one standing, began writing its modern chapter.
The current lineage of submarines comes from the 1960s with the Type 201 and larger Type 205s. Designed by Ingenieurkontor Lübeck (IKL) and led by Professor Ulrich Gabler, a veteran U-boat engineer, IKL became the intellectual bridge between the lost expertise of the war years and the new post-war world. This would also be the foundation of TKMS's modern history. If you're curious about this early stuff more, we wrote a substantial piece here about it.
It was the Type 209, though, that would be the company’s breakout platform for export. The 209 didn't just sell well; it fundamentally reshaped the global market, marking TKMS as NATO’s, and the world’s, premier supplier of diesel-electric submarines.
The sheer scale of that success pushed Kiel’s influence far beyond the North Atlantic. The 209 aggressively captured the Latin American market, establishing a decades-long presence in the fleets of Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Chile, while simultaneously securing major contracts across the world from Turkey and Greece to India, South Korea, and Indonesia.
For the latter half of the Cold War, if a Western-leaning nation was buying a conventional submarine, it was almost certainly a German. As the new millennium approached, that lineage naturally evolved into the joint German-Italian Type 212A and the export-heavy Type 214, retaining long-standing customers within the German shipbuilding orbit while attracting new procurement dollars.
Today, you can track that unbroken lineage straight across the alliance: Germany, Norway, Italy, Portugal, Turkey, Greece… Across NATO, TKMS remains the undisputed largest supplier of submarines; 70% of NATO's non-nuclear fleet comes from the company.
If you ask TKMS, they will tell you over and over again that what truly cemented this dominance wasn't just shipping finished hulls out of northern Germany, but a strategic approach to industrial partnerships. By offering significant technology transfer and localized construction (something that they will happily say maybe they did too well in some cases...), partner nations have been able to buy into that legacy and build the sovereign industrial capacity to maintain and build their submarines at home.
Whether it is boats rolling off the slips at Turkey’s Gölcük Naval Shipyard or building new foundations in places like Mazagon, this willingness to empower local workforces has been just as critical to the company's legacy as the vessels themselves.
It is through here that we get to the TKMS of today, which entered a new chapter as it was spun off from the larger ThyssenKrupp AG in October. TKMS maintains its historical presence in Kiel at its 310,000-square-meter yard, where it commands a workforce in the thousands and an order backlog of nearly €16 billion, including ongoing orders from Germany, Norway, India, Israel, and Singapore.
Kiel itself has recently undergone a massive €250 million expansion, the centerpiece of which is their new state-of-the-art submarine production hall, a massive eight-bay complex. This new facility is absolutely massive, I am told, measuring 170 meters long, 70 meters wide, and 32.5 meters high, though I have yet to see it myself!
This hall, though, wasn't a luxury but a needed investment to ensure TKMS was prepared for the next generation of conventional submarines. Purpose-built to handle the increased tonnage of the future Type 212CD, the facility fundamentally shifts the manufacturing process by replacing traditional scaffolding with a flexible, modular platform system that allows simultaneous, multi-level hull access.
The new hall leverages AI-driven enterprise platforms and digital twin technologies to automatically map manufacturing processes, detect bottlenecks, and dynamically adjust production schedules in real-time. On the floor, this digital integration allows workers to use augmented reality and precise 3D modeling to perfectly visualize and execute the complex internal outfitting of modular sections before physical assembly begins. The hall also comes with a new advanced filtration system for welding non-magnetic steel. According to the company, these new upgrades could help shave more than 20% off the pure construction timeline for each boat.
Along with this new main hall, the company has also invested in a second dedicated outfitting line, a comprehensively modernized service hall designed strictly to handle Mid-Life Upgrades (MLUs), and a new, high-capacity shiplift and transfer system capable of handling the increased tonnage of the next-generation submarines. Also on site are a dedicated weapons tube machining facility, a composites workshop for manufacturing large sail structures, isolated pressure hull fabrication and welding zones, and a hydrogen fuel cell Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) integration center.
It's not just Kiel, though, that will have a role to play in the future. Capacity is planned to increase through the acquisition and reopening of the Wismar yard. TKMS acquired the former MV Werften yard in Wismar from Genting Hong Kong back in 2022 as it faced insolvency.
The yard itself has had a fairly turbulent history since the 1990s, changing ownership several times over the years, including Aker ASA, Bremer Vulkan AG, and Russian oligarch Vitaly Yusufov.
The company is investing over €200 million to bring the Wismar facility up to standard, allowing it to begin construction of both surface vessels and submarines. This addition, plus recent upgrades at TKMS's yard in Kiel, will allow the company to work on upwards of a dozen submarines simultaneously. Over four hundred individuals are currently working at Wismar, as the company aims for full operations to commence by 2029.
Through modernization, the addition of new yards, and new strategic partnerships that will be discussed later, TKMS aims to deliver four 212CDs to Canada by 2036. Under this proposal, Germany and Norway have committed to Canada that they would each sacrifice one build slot each to ensure that Canada can get its first submarine by 2032.
This, I hope, helps provide some context to the scale and state of TKMS's current capacity. I don't think there has ever been a good rundown done before in the Canadian space that really puts things together. Certainly, I learned a lot over the last two weeks about the modernization of Kiel and how fast things at Wismar were going.
I always feel that highlighting the yards themselves, and how they are preparing for the future, is important. Certainly, no one is going to dispute the top-of-the-pack status that TKMS enjoys. In their world, they are the kingpin, the one who sits at the top. They view themselves not as the establishment, but as the forefather of much of the global submarine industry. With 180 submarines produced since 1960, 40% of which were done in customer countries, the modern conventional submarine ecosystem is, as they say, inherently German.
And that status is part of what TKMS highlights they offer. When they speak of the 'family,' they truly mean it. In fact, that family is the linchpin that brings it all together. The relationship between Canada and the broader family isn't limited to the Type 212CD, but we will get into that. We aren't done running through everything yet. We talked about the company and the yard, and now we get to refresh on the submarine itself.
The Type-212CD
While I expect many of you by now to know the 212CD well, I do think it is always important to run down the platforms when doing these sorts of pieces. So, let's quickly refresh on what's on offer.
TKMS is offering the Type-212 Common Design, which we refer to as the Type-212CD. The 212CD is designed to fit the requirements of both Norway and Germany for a modern, conventional submarine capable of operating across the waterways of Europe, into the North Atlantic, and up into the Arctic, all in a common, interoperable platform. For some numbers, the 212CD has a length of 73 metres and 10 metres at the beam. She has a displacement of ~2,800 tonnes submerged and a core crew requirement of only 28 personnel.
The 212CD itself is an evolution of the Type-212A submarine, which itself is often cited as one of the quietest and most advanced diesel-electric submarines on Earth. The CD takes this a step further with perhaps one of her most notable features: her diamond-shaped outer hull.
Unlike traditional teardrop-shaped hulls, the 212CD features flat, sloping sides. This faceted outer hull is designed to act similarly to the angles on a stealth aircraft, reflecting active sonar energy away from the emitter rather than bouncing it directly back. This drastically reduces the submarine's Target Echo Strength (TES).
The 212CD takes this an extra step further with the utilization of non-magnetic Amanox family steel. The use of non-magnetic steel is a staple of German submarines like the 212A, making them virtually undetectable to magnetic anomaly detectors (MAD) utilized by maritime patrol aircraft. It also acts as a countermeasure to things like magnetic naval mines. There are other benefits and such; you can read all that here.
Away from steel, the 212CD also utilizes a combination of lithium-ion and AIP systems like the KSS-III Batch II. The 212CD will utilize TKMS's in-house 4th Generation Fuel Cell (FC4G) for its AIP system; you might also hear it referred to as the Advanced Submarine Fuel Cell (ASFC) system.
What's unique is that ASFC operates as a modular "line system" made of 40 kW stacks grouped to provide up to 320 kW baseline. This is designed to allow the 212CD more flexibility and partial-load efficiency, especially at low speeds where it might not need to utilize all the power available to it.
The 212CD also utilizes two MTU 4000-series diesel generators and a next-generation PERMASYN motor. This allows the 212CD to exceed Canada’s stated 7,000 nm range and blow away the 21-day submerged endurance requirements by nearly double.
To pair with the new 212CD, Kongsberg and TKMS—under their joint partnership kta naval systems (which also included Atlas Elektronik before TKMS bought them)—have developed a brand-new combat management system with ORCCA. I had a great opportunity to see the ORCCA system up close and see some of the features and capabilities personally.
ORCCA utilizes a scalable data centre concept to integrate both the vessel's platform controls and combat operations, aggregating complex sensor information and presenting it to crew members through an intuitive interface on multifunctional consoles. This virtualization-based architecture supports flexible manning roles and ensures high system availability during deployments. ORCCA acts as the central hub for everything on the 212CD, fusing sensor data, weapons control, and engineering telemetry into a single, cohesive command architecture.
Additionally, ORCCA features an open framework designed to accommodate the integration of third-party subsystems, buyer-specific algorithms, and future artificial intelligence operations. KTA affectionately refers to these as Apps, which can be easily integrated while incorporating built-in IT security protocols.
Under the GERNOR proposal to the Canadian government, kta and Kongsberg will work to establish a domestic capacity for ORCCA in Canada through a new Combat Management System Center of Excellence in Ottawa, where Canada will have sovereign control over the maintenance, upgrading, and intellectual property of the ORCCA Combat Management System.
I should also note that Kongsberg Geospatial in Ottawa has been a partner on ORCCA since the beginning, something they absolutely love to highlight when showcasing the work already being done by Canadian industry on the 212CD.
They aren't the only ones, either. Magellan Aerospace is another key partner on the 212CD, supporting the development of the SeaSpider Anti-Torpedo Torpedo, set to come into service next year (another cool thing I learned).
If you're curious about munitions, I won't put it all here, but we do have a dedicated piece going into all the munitions of the 212CD for you to see! The 212CD also includes support for autonomous systems, a diver's lock, and support for Special Operations Forces, including dedicated storage and preparation areas.
Hensoldt, Indra, and Kongsberg are the primary sensor providers for the 212CD. This includes Hensoldt’s dual-mast configuration utilizing the OMS 150 and the ultra-low profile OMS 300 optronic masts, which completely replace traditional hull-penetrating periscopes with high-definition, multi-spectral digital imaging, supplemented by their i360°OS panoramic surveillance system for continuous close-range surface awareness.
Indra brings critical situational awareness to the mix with its fully digital Electronic Warfare (EW) suite and advanced navigation radars, allowing the boat to silently detect, classify, and track electromagnetic emissions from surface and airborne threats.
Finally, Kongsberg provides specialized acoustic technology, specifically the active SA9510S MKII Mine Avoidance and Navigation Sonar, alongside EM2040 Mil and EA640 echosounders for precise seabed navigation.
This rounds off the 212CD as a platform. Decades of work by both German and Norwegian industry come together to try and replicate the same system that made the Type 212A one of the greatest conventional submarines on planet Earth.
The Type-212CD is an evolution of the 212A, but it should not be mistaken for some sort of 212A+. New engines, a new lithium-battery system, a new fourth-generation AIP system, and a new combat management system, all supported by some of the best sensors available on the European market.
The 212CD is a culmination of the last 60 years of German engineering paired with one of Europe's premier subsea giants in Kongsberg, both of which have managed to come together to create a platform capable of dominating from the Arctic to the Mediterranean.
To me, the 212CD is a beautiful feat of engineering, but I digress. You now have the rundown, the fundamental information at your fingertips, all in one place: the company, the yard, the submarine itself. With those fundamentals out of the way, we can now take a proper look at what exactly TKMS is offering to Canada and how they envision a Canadian 212CD will look like.
Joining the Family - Canada: The Anchor
If you ask some of the folks at TKMS, they would tell you that there is a constant chase for more. More capacity, more munitions, more suppliers. More everything, and then some. Almost every time I have talked to them about industry, the message has been the same.
Governments are spending record amounts on defence, trying to catch up after decades of underinvestment. At the same time, many of these governments are placing orders at such scales and timeframes that companies are struggling to keep up.
For TKMS, that demand seems to be only growing more and more, at least every time I talk to them. A new competition every few months, be that Greece, Argentina, or Morocco... The largest torpedo in its history. Everything operates off the chase: every partner, every investment. There is nothing that exists in a vacuum.
Even as the Federal Government chases additional investment in the Canadian economy, including outside the realm of defence, the question for TKMS remains: what investments can we make to not only support industry but also close existing gaps we and others might have?
As of now, TKMS has confirmed over 20 strategic and teaming agreements with industry, academia, and SMEs. Among those include:
TKMS has also led the establishment of the Canadian Defence & Dual-Use Innovation Ecosystem: a sovereign, end-to-end Canadian innovation network that turns Canada's research strength into operational maritime defence and globally competitive dual-use solutions.
TKMS has also signed agreements with a number of Indigenous partners, including agreements with Songhees Development Corporation, Des Nedhe Group Defence, Glooscap Ventures, and the Inuit Development Corporation Association, to collaborate on future areas of economic and industrial cooperation in the advancement of Indigenous reconciliation.
This is just a fraction, as I know it, of the dozens of partners and investments TKMS and associates plan to make into Canada in the event of a CPSP victory. In total, TKMS estimates that its package could deliver an $86-billion boost to Canada's gross domestic product and create over 654,695 job years of employment over the lifetime of the deal. 50,000 of those jobs could be created over the next five years.
But again, for TKMS, the question is not about creating the highest numbers, but instead: what investments can benefit Canada, Germany, and the trans-Atlantic relationship? This is their priority. This is what they think of; what they want to highlight. To them, the numbers come regardless.
That is the philosophy, and it is something TKMS prides itself on. To them, every agreement is a solid commitment, with defined goals, outcomes, and purpose behind it. Every agreement carries itself, as someone else had told me.
It is one of the first things they will tell you about how they do partnerships, and it is something they stick with. How they see it, the partnership process is long, but it needs to be credible in what it outlines. They take very big pride that almost all of their agreements are detailed packages among themselves for long-term, active investment and cooperation that doubles as a stable avenue of economic development over the sub's lifetime.
And for TKMS, a country full of critical minerals, a highly skilled workforce, world-class institutions, and an economy looking to pivot to new industries and partners leaves no shortage of opportunities to benefit.
There is untapped potential, some say, in Canada and what she can do. For the Germans? The Norwegians? The question on investment is not a matter of if there is potential, but just how much there is. For a company like TKMS and partners, for whom domestic industry is struggling to keep up, Canada presents the proverbial land of milk and honey; full of industry and talent ready to be put to work, to contribute, but one seldomly used and crying out for opportunity.
Canada is the anchor, in some cases beyond even their homeland. Germany does not make the steel that will go into the 212CD domestically, but Canada will. Canada will build modules and critical components for the hull, even if they are not assembled here.
Companies like CAE could provide training systems across the whole userbase, while companies like Magellan support the ever-increasing demand for heavyweight torpedoes and other munitions that TKMS is struggling to keep up with domestically.
As one person told me, Canada is the anchor partner, the one who does a bit of everything, even if the final product is not made here. Canada may not be the lead, but we will be the primary partner when it comes to building capacity end-to-end across the submarine supply chain.
We will make the steel, the critical components, the munitions. We will help continue to build ORCCA; we will make the lithium batteries. We might not take the lead, but we will have our hands across the supply chain, beyond even Germany and Norway.
That doesn't come from demands. It comes because the industry, workforce, resources, and ecosystem are here to build it, and build it quickly. There is nowhere like Canada that could contribute, that has the potential to commit, as far as TKMS officials have told me. To them, Canada is the best partner to work with here to fix these systemic issues.
TKMS has been open in offering us an equal stake in the partnership; that means supporting Canadian industry through tech transfers and IP for key systems, subsystems, and components. TKMS is open to standardizing Canadian technology and systems across all variants of the 212CD. This means adopting Canadian systems and technology as standard across the entire production line.
TKMS has also offered us a spot, alongside others, in its Submarine Cooperation Network. The SCN aims to:
Promote shared training and operational experience.
Create a system for joint procurement opportunities and stockpiling of spare parts.
Support coordinated upgrades and obsolescence management.
Through this system, Canada will not only have access to a much wider network of partners beyond Germany and Norway, but TKMS is also opening the door for Canadian industry to take part in other programs (both through manufacturing and potential integration) beyond the Type 212CD.
TKMS is also extending this to training. TKMS is offering a comprehensive training package that not only includes training of crews in Germany but also the opportunity for crew exchanges and long-term personnel transfers between Canada, Germany, and Norway.
Kongsberg is also promoting further investments beyond the above, including investments in simulator technologies, a new MOU with OSI Maritime Systems (OSI) to integrate their technologies and software into future Kongsberg CMS and ORCCA, as well as looking to establish a new Critical Infrastructure Test Bed similar to the Oslofjord Critical Maritime Infrastructure (CMI) Protection Test Bed opened last year in Norway.
Beyond TKMS and Kongsberg, the German and Norwegian governments have also been committed to supporting Canadian industry through CPSP. The Deutsche Marine has recently signed a contract to procure Lockheed Martin Canada’s CMS330 combat management system in a staggering $1 billion CAD deal. The German government has also proposed further cooperation with Bombardier, including the order of additional Global 6500s.
Furthermore, Canada and the EU signed a new Joint Declaration on Critical Minerals Collaboration, aiming to strengthen cooperation and multilateralism in support of secure supply chains, bilateral investment and trade, industrial competitiveness, and sustainable growth. This was followed by a new Letter of Intent with the European Investment Bank to negotiate an agreement with Canada that will pave the way toward cooperation on projects in Canada and abroad.
This all comes just after the European Union committed €200 million to helping establish a hydrogen export corridor between Canada and Germany. Also just recently, Siemens and Rock Tech Lithium signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), laying the foundation for a long-term, multi-phase strategic partnership to develop state-of-the-art lithium conversion capacity in Canada.
This is also not taking into account the increasingly growing concept of a common North Atlantic presence, built off common platforms (like the P-8, F-35, Type 26, GlobalEye), a common framework for things like training and personnel exchange or obsolescence management, common facilities for things like maintenance, and developing common supply chains.
Increasingly, this reality is becoming clearer across the Trilateral, primarily with Norway, with whom, as I always point out, we share quite a lot of commonality of equipment. The idea of Norway and Canada sharing a common fighter, surface combatant, submarine, maritime patrol aircraft, etc., is now a valid future.
As an example, all of this presents opportunities as listed above. It turns the North Atlantic, in theory, from a separate set of nations into a common area where countries like Norway, the UK, Canada, Germany, etc., can operate under a framework of common, interoperable defence and security.
All of these tie back to the core philosophy of mutual cooperation and collaboration, creating a pan-Atlantic ecosystem that not only supports the economic goals of the Federal Government but also helps support Europe's growing demand for critical minerals, munitions, and diversified supply chains.
And that's where things stand now. It is no longer about individual countries. It is no longer just about companies. It is a fundamental question of alignment for many, and increasingly, that question is bringing another factor to Team GERNOR.
The United Atlantic
I mentioned earlier that we would revisit how third parties are also involving themselves in CPSP. I promised we would go back to it later, but it is a noted development. It is no longer Germany and Norway exclusively looking to Canada’s choice on CPSP as a guide for investment.
While not in the 212CD network, Fincantieri is in the family, and they, among others, are also looking to Canada and our choices. It is the first example of the family taking notice and making proactive moves to jump and secure capacity in a future Canadian submarine industry; and, as I understand it, far from the only one being discussed.
Another outside addition, Navantia of Spain and TKMS have also recently signed an MOU to investigate collaboration on naval shipbuilding. While this new agreement is young, I am also led to believe that Navantia is also looking to Canada with interest, building off some of their previous engagements with industry.
Increasingly, the European front is united—in industry, in the political sphere, and diplomatically—to present the 212CD not as a German-Norwegian partnership but as a foundational Canada-Europe partnership that will build off the foundation of agreements like SAFE and the EU-Canada Security and Defence Partnership to create a united Atlantic front that promotes collaboration, joint investment, and opens the European market to Canadian industry.
Increasingly, that is the message being given, and increasingly, I hear of the efforts of third parties to throw their support. The European bloc, while divided for a long time, has finally started to come around in the home stretch to throw its support behind Team GERNOR.
And that kind of plays to a lot of CPSP. Like, no one pretends that this hasn't been a call of alignment, be it locking down with the Atlantic Alliance or looking beyond it to other horizons. The difference now is that said Atlantic Alliance is starting to show up, and they're showing up with real promises and support beyond the diplomatic.
TKMS is the undisputed top of the card, the Don of a maritime family whose reach stretches from Brazil to Indonesia, Greece to India. They are the established leader, the kingpin of the conventional undersea world, and for better or worse, they carry themselves with the exact kind of quiet confidence you’d expect from that status.
Some will call it arrogance. I have yet to see that. I guess that's just what happens when you've been running this exact play for over sixty years; even a competition like CPSP just becomes another competition to win.
But the view from the top of that mountain is changing, and even the old guard is facing increasing pressure. The world we are looking at today is faster, more violent, and infinitely more unpredictable than even five years ago, and many of those established players are the first that get the pressure put on them, pressure from the same people who forced them to survive off the minimum, but I digress.
TKMS is staring down massive pressure: a tidal wave of global and domestic demand, aggressive new competition from the likes of Korea, Turkey, and China, and a domestic German industrial base that simply isn't prepared to handle the sheer volume of a full-scale transatlantic rearmament alone.
The current security environment demands them to not only be fast but to ready themselves to step up in ways they haven't had to in decades.
And that is exactly where Canada comes into the calculus for them. Repeatedly it was stressed to me: you are not just a flag on a map or a blank check to fund their yards. To survive and dominate this new era, the family needs the exact industrial access, critical mineral supply chains, and talent that Canada has ready and is desperate to deploy.
Ultimately, the upcoming decision on CPSP is fundamentally about choosing which global ecosystem Canada wants to hitch its wagon to for the next fifty years. That choice falls on Ottawa to make in the coming days.
But if nothing else, my time with TKMS proved that while the pressure is mounting globally, the people holding the cards aren't panicking. They're just waiting to see if Canada is ready to take a seat at the table.
Great article. As mentioned the export record of TKMS is stellar. This reduces risk compared to Hanwha, where we will be their first export customer.
An additional level of risk the Koreans have created is their intention to launch a nuclear powered sub by the mid 2030’s, right in the middle of their deliveries to Canada (should they be successful).
If we are looking at this as a 50 year partnership we would be buying what for them would become their 2nd tier of submarines, with their first tier being nuclear powered. Where is the upgrade path? Even as industrious as the South Koreans are there is only so much money and expertise to go around, most of their attention will go to the development of their nuclear fleet.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-aims-launch-first-nuclear-powered-submarine-by-mid-2030s-2026-05-26/
The Korean Sub is a better choice , it has a strategic Deterrence in the VLS , the German Sub does not . The German Sub is built for shallow coastal waters of the Baltic Area and its VERY GOOD in that role , its also NOT MEANT for seas with Ice . Believe it or not its AO is NEVER covered in ICE , its stealth covering is expensive to replace and extremely fragile , any contact with ICE will incur massive and expensive Damage . The Korean Sub has a reinforced Hull and a reinforced Sail . If you where just trying to look at Sub vs Sub warfare in Canadian Coastal Waters the German Sub would probably be the Sub for Canada but that means you can throw out NATO Operations across the Atlantic and Pacific Operations with Australia , New Zealand , South Korea and Japan . According to the Canadian Government , The Crown and His Majesty's Canadian Armed Forces , Canada needs a Deep Open Ocean Submarines , this makes the Korean Sub the only choice . Now if you look at the two subs with out the Canadian Context the Koran Sub still beats the German sub in the ability to engage Surface Combatants at 1,000 / 1,500 KM away with the VLS.
The Korean Sub also beats the German Sub in Strategic Deterrence and Strategic Strike with its 10 VLS , the ability to launch Missile systems from under water , undetected , laying waste to an aggressors Military instillations or their city centers is something the German Sub CAN NOT DO . Allies have to understand Canadian Waters are NOT THE BALTIC , they need to understand our Operating conditions and Strategic needs are NOT THE SAME as theirs . With the U.S. pulling subs out of NATO Europe , if OUR ALLIES want Canadian help in that field then the KOREAN SUB is not only the BEST choice , its the only choice . This Best Choice head to head for everything but MAYBE Sub vs Sub direct combat is the Korean sub , The Best Choice according to what CANADA needs its Sub to do is the Korean Sub , The best Choice for Canada to help NATO in the Undersea domain is the Korean Sub .
If Canada picks the German sub , best thing to do is LEAVE NATO , Leave NORAD, declare neutrality , stay out of the Pacific and Atlantic , Stay OUT of Europe , pull everything into Personal National Defence . If Canada wants to do things with Allies in the Indo Pacific and NATO in Europe is needs to act like it and work accordingly , that is VERY clearly the Korean Sub .