Yesterday, October 9th, the United States under President Donald Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum authorizing the construction of up to four Arctic Security Cutters (ASCs) abroad to address urgent national security needs in the Arctic region.
• The Polar100 is a Davie owned design, same as the Polar Max and Corvettes. They inherited a lot of designs from Helsinki.
• There is Investment into the United States, but this is also more money overall going back into the company. It also offers future contract opportunities with the United States by establishing a domestic yard. That was always gonna be a need.
• Canadian Industry benefits because we've already been building the supply chains for our own Icebreakers. This mature Industry is already set up and ready to support in the supply-side of things in Galveston.
• Can never Ignore the political wins lol. Nor can we Ignore the added confidence this will give others in the future if Davies decides to chase other contracts. The yard in Lévis is booked up for the next decade+. This gives them some extra capacity to go after more export orders. No matter what, Lévis remains the companies main yard.
• That build on the desire to transition from a pure Canadian company to an exporter. No matter what, countries will demand some Industrial and economic benefits. We can't stop that. This is no exception. What it does is gets Davie inside the United States, established, and sets them up for future major contracts that can help support the companies efforts here.
You are valid in your concerns though! I am notoriously hopeful, and obviously we all want more work here. This is good though. There are benefits. It wont effect their work or Investments in Lévis. I see this as a great step in the right direction.
Its really good to see our Shipbuilding industry maturing again after so many years and money built put into it. I think its testament that the NSS is actually working (if only slowly)!
But I still can't help but feel some reservations, but I think that's mostly chalked up to that I don't fully understand how our companies are going to benefit from this? For SeaSpan its more clear to me, at a minimum they'll make money off of licensing their design. Cool, that's good stuff. I struggle more to understand how CANADA benefits from Davie's involvement in this project? None of the ships are being built here (so no jobs for us), Davies is investing billions in a foreign country to build and entirely new dock (investment that could have gone here instead imho), and I don't believe they're using a Davies design, so no revenue from there. So what's the benefit to us?
I'm not saying it's not a good thing to be involve, its definitely a win for our maturing industry, but my only hope is that somewhere down the line it results in more work here in Canada, and not abroad somewhere else. Our shipyards shouldn't be propped up here by government contracts forever, they need to eventually start getting foreign orders and building them here. I don't know if this advances that objective.
It is great to see ICE pact & more generally, NSS bearing fruit. Every export of Canadian shipbuilding & more specifically IP, should be seen as a big win. The shipbuilding itself is great for jobs, but the real benefit comes from owning the IP (as Seaspan does for MPI, & Davies does for Polar100... Having bought the base along with Helsinki... On the strength of their industria/commerciall position through NSS).
Even if we aren't building the ships, owning the IP means being involved throughout the design & build, in the supply chain, & throughout ISS. A win, even if Davie is building in the states (at a yard owend by Davie... So still profitting from it).
It is not too far a stretch to imagine a US CDC variant being built by Davie Defence in Galveston....
Also... If the US really wants to contest our sovereignty, there are easier (& more menacing) ways of doing it than sending a lightly armed icebreaker to the arctic...
Like I could be very dismissive and say they're gonna get Icebreakers anyways. There is no shortage of designs at the Finnish yards they could pick up if they wanted. If your concern is that we're supplying someone who is a 'threat' than I gotta disappoint and say we can't stop them from getting these. In this way we set the path for cooperation, get to take in the benefits that come with this, and profit from it in some way at least.
Thank you for this clear and positive analysis. It allows me to put my own concerns on the back burner, for now. They stem entirely from a broader foreign policy angle devoid of technical knowledge. I cannot help but wonder about the implications for Canada of Trump's yet to be released National Security Strategy which is supposed to operationalize America First foreign policy. If the NSS ends up prioritizing "hemispheric defence," I fear that the modernization of NORAD and North American Arctic defence will not be bilateral partnerships. Looking at the MAGA language used by Bollinger (which I first came across August 19) about projecting American power and American dominance in the Arctic, you can probably guess why. It feels like we are being recruited into an American project. The ICE Pact looked like a good idea 15 months ago. I hope you are right, and it still is.
I felt happier August 18-19 when we were hanging out just with the Swedes and the Finns.
It is a valid thing to be worried about, and I dont want to come across as blindly optimistic to the unpredictably and potential for shifts is priorities of this administration.
I am cautiously, but notable, optimistic. I am far more optimistic than others that nothing will happen in those regards, at the least, I don't expect the Americans to shift on what they view as our Sovereign territory.
Disagreements will always be present over things like the NWP, however my personal belief is that the Americans will be happy to boast amd give plenty of big words, but not really shift in terms of how they act towards us, or how they view our Arctic.
I am also in the let them Boast camp lol. If they wish to speak a big game, than so be it. As long as we dont let them push us and open up the topic, something we have an issue doing ourselves.
You are right to worry thought. At the end of the day the current administration is inherently chaotic as a practice. They can shift their stances on the daily.
They would get these Icebreakers either way. If not our designs than a myriad of others available. They would still have access to the Finnish yards to get them done quickly. How I see it? This at least gives us some leverage, makes us a player in the game, even if rugged from the start.
And in the event nothing happened? Than we reap that benefit. If something does change? Than we got many worse problems on our hands beyond these Icebreakers. They won't shift the scale if we decided not to participate. These would end up existing either way. Neither will Davies investment.
How I see it, that bit of risk is worth the reward. The opportunity here is enough where I will say it is worth it.
Noah, you've really outdone yourself with the article and the analysis of potential NSS benefit and mpact. Super impressive and right in the pocket. On point. Speaking like a seasoned DG, analyzing like a shipyard CEO, assessing like an admiral. Trully impressive work.. and always on point.
On Davies, and I'm sorry for pointform:
• The Polar100 is a Davie owned design, same as the Polar Max and Corvettes. They inherited a lot of designs from Helsinki.
• There is Investment into the United States, but this is also more money overall going back into the company. It also offers future contract opportunities with the United States by establishing a domestic yard. That was always gonna be a need.
• Canadian Industry benefits because we've already been building the supply chains for our own Icebreakers. This mature Industry is already set up and ready to support in the supply-side of things in Galveston.
• Can never Ignore the political wins lol. Nor can we Ignore the added confidence this will give others in the future if Davies decides to chase other contracts. The yard in Lévis is booked up for the next decade+. This gives them some extra capacity to go after more export orders. No matter what, Lévis remains the companies main yard.
• That build on the desire to transition from a pure Canadian company to an exporter. No matter what, countries will demand some Industrial and economic benefits. We can't stop that. This is no exception. What it does is gets Davie inside the United States, established, and sets them up for future major contracts that can help support the companies efforts here.
You are valid in your concerns though! I am notoriously hopeful, and obviously we all want more work here. This is good though. There are benefits. It wont effect their work or Investments in Lévis. I see this as a great step in the right direction.
Its really good to see our Shipbuilding industry maturing again after so many years and money built put into it. I think its testament that the NSS is actually working (if only slowly)!
But I still can't help but feel some reservations, but I think that's mostly chalked up to that I don't fully understand how our companies are going to benefit from this? For SeaSpan its more clear to me, at a minimum they'll make money off of licensing their design. Cool, that's good stuff. I struggle more to understand how CANADA benefits from Davie's involvement in this project? None of the ships are being built here (so no jobs for us), Davies is investing billions in a foreign country to build and entirely new dock (investment that could have gone here instead imho), and I don't believe they're using a Davies design, so no revenue from there. So what's the benefit to us?
I'm not saying it's not a good thing to be involve, its definitely a win for our maturing industry, but my only hope is that somewhere down the line it results in more work here in Canada, and not abroad somewhere else. Our shipyards shouldn't be propped up here by government contracts forever, they need to eventually start getting foreign orders and building them here. I don't know if this advances that objective.
Great article Noah!
It is great to see ICE pact & more generally, NSS bearing fruit. Every export of Canadian shipbuilding & more specifically IP, should be seen as a big win. The shipbuilding itself is great for jobs, but the real benefit comes from owning the IP (as Seaspan does for MPI, & Davies does for Polar100... Having bought the base along with Helsinki... On the strength of their industria/commerciall position through NSS).
Even if we aren't building the ships, owning the IP means being involved throughout the design & build, in the supply chain, & throughout ISS. A win, even if Davie is building in the states (at a yard owend by Davie... So still profitting from it).
It is not too far a stretch to imagine a US CDC variant being built by Davie Defence in Galveston....
Also... If the US really wants to contest our sovereignty, there are easier (& more menacing) ways of doing it than sending a lightly armed icebreaker to the arctic...
Like I could be very dismissive and say they're gonna get Icebreakers anyways. There is no shortage of designs at the Finnish yards they could pick up if they wanted. If your concern is that we're supplying someone who is a 'threat' than I gotta disappoint and say we can't stop them from getting these. In this way we set the path for cooperation, get to take in the benefits that come with this, and profit from it in some way at least.
Risk feels worth it to me.
Thank you for this clear and positive analysis. It allows me to put my own concerns on the back burner, for now. They stem entirely from a broader foreign policy angle devoid of technical knowledge. I cannot help but wonder about the implications for Canada of Trump's yet to be released National Security Strategy which is supposed to operationalize America First foreign policy. If the NSS ends up prioritizing "hemispheric defence," I fear that the modernization of NORAD and North American Arctic defence will not be bilateral partnerships. Looking at the MAGA language used by Bollinger (which I first came across August 19) about projecting American power and American dominance in the Arctic, you can probably guess why. It feels like we are being recruited into an American project. The ICE Pact looked like a good idea 15 months ago. I hope you are right, and it still is.
I felt happier August 18-19 when we were hanging out just with the Swedes and the Finns.
It is a valid thing to be worried about, and I dont want to come across as blindly optimistic to the unpredictably and potential for shifts is priorities of this administration.
I am cautiously, but notable, optimistic. I am far more optimistic than others that nothing will happen in those regards, at the least, I don't expect the Americans to shift on what they view as our Sovereign territory.
Disagreements will always be present over things like the NWP, however my personal belief is that the Americans will be happy to boast amd give plenty of big words, but not really shift in terms of how they act towards us, or how they view our Arctic.
I am also in the let them Boast camp lol. If they wish to speak a big game, than so be it. As long as we dont let them push us and open up the topic, something we have an issue doing ourselves.
You are right to worry thought. At the end of the day the current administration is inherently chaotic as a practice. They can shift their stances on the daily.
They would get these Icebreakers either way. If not our designs than a myriad of others available. They would still have access to the Finnish yards to get them done quickly. How I see it? This at least gives us some leverage, makes us a player in the game, even if rugged from the start.
And in the event nothing happened? Than we reap that benefit. If something does change? Than we got many worse problems on our hands beyond these Icebreakers. They won't shift the scale if we decided not to participate. These would end up existing either way. Neither will Davies investment.
How I see it, that bit of risk is worth the reward. The opportunity here is enough where I will say it is worth it.
Noah, you've really outdone yourself with the article and the analysis of potential NSS benefit and mpact. Super impressive and right in the pocket. On point. Speaking like a seasoned DG, analyzing like a shipyard CEO, assessing like an admiral. Trully impressive work.. and always on point.