What's coming this month?

September. I love September. I love the fall. I like that I can bust out my famous jacket collection. What’s not to love about September besides the back-to-school season and watching my bank account get smaller and smaller because all my kids were born in a four-week period.

It is also, evidently, a very busy month for those of us who cover Canadian defence. For a while now I have been saying that September would be the busiest month in a long time. As the summer draws to a close and we work towards the fall budget, a number of very important events are being planned over the next six weeks.

There is apparently a multifaceted reason for this. The current government not only wants to get ahead of the budget and announce things before its release but also to try and get as much out of the way before Parliament resumes on the fifteenth.

That is not to say everything is coming before then, but talking around it definitely seems like they want to get as much as possible put out of the way before the inevitable chaos and fighting returns to the Hill. A bit sneaky? Absolutely. Although it really should not be a surprise. Getting ahead of potential controversy is always part of the playbook.

Do I think this means we are getting bad news? No. I think we already know much of what is coming. Now that we are in September though I think it is time for me to lay out what the plans are and what you can expect over the next couple of weeks.

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What they already announced

The federal government has already been ahead of me on several announcements I expected for this month. I had expected both the submarine announcement and the Coast Guard OIC to be in September. Technically the Coast Guard announcement was, but I did not expect it so early.

If I am being more technical I believe the OIC was signed on the 31st but not announced until Tuesday. I knew it would likely be the first of the planned announcements, but I had expected it to be later in the week.

The downselection for CPSP also came a week early to coincide with the Prime Minister’s visit to Germany. I also expected it to be in September, though it was always going to come whenever the Prime Minister went to Germany. That just happened to be the end of August instead.

I heard of the Coast Guard OIC a few weeks ago but only heard about the submarine announcement a few days before it happened. I had previously heard several weeks ago that CPSP news was coming in September but had no firm dates.

The Coast Guard OIC was actually a bit of a letdown for me as I was told there would be more substance to the announcement. However, that did not come as discussions on the move and how to handle the transition are still ongoing.

That is not a bad thing. I would much rather, as I said before, see the process be taken slowly and with care to ensure a smooth transition than try to quickly rush through the process and end up screwing something up.

So while I am sad as someone who likes details I cannot say it is a negative. Both of these have their reasons for being ahead of what I expected, and I will not be complaining about having to wait less for things.

With these two out of the way though we can move on to some of the other juicy things in the pipeline.

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What is coming

I want to start by saying I have no dates for anything. I do not know exactly when things will be taking place, however I am confident that all of these will be checked off before the middle of October.

As of right now the following things are planned:

• Fighter review dropping

• LUV Phase I dropping

• Army restructuring announcement

• HIMARS announcement

• First part of the defence industrial policy dropping

• Fall budget

I again have no idea which will come first, but my expectation is that everything will come before the fall budget is revealed. That is a good marker to put between now and then. That window is where we will see the vast majority, if not all, of these announced. My only doubt is on LUV Phase I. That might come a bit later.

The fighter review was always advertised as the end of the summer and I am told it will be dropping in a few weeks. This is one where they have been fairly open about the timing.

The expectation is still the same, that we will stick to the F-35 order in full. That has not changed and I am willing to say it is fairly set now from everything I have seen. That is not to say it was clear-cut. There were people, especially certain ministers, who apparently were very open to and promoting the idea of a second fleet.

However it was always going to be a fight to get that, especially out of the RCAF where the F-35 has always been seen as the one and only option. There was little doubt in my mind that, barring major government interference, the F-35 would not be cut.

I also expect that restructuring and the HIMARS announcement will come at the same time, or at least very close to each other. That would make sense and give the government something of spice to throw into restructuring.

HIMARS has been the plan for a long time. I first reported about the September date back in January or February and the restructuring back in March or April. We also already know what to expect with restructuring. You can read about it in my report from a few months ago.

The plan is to acquire 26 HIMARS along with GMLRS, GMLRS-ER, and PRSM. I obviously cannot tell you the quantity, however I have been told that a significant part of the budget has been dedicated to building up a proper stockpile of munitions.

I have heard mixed things there, so I will not throw out numbers, but there is care being taken to make sure we not only start building a proper stockpile but also maintain a consistent spot in the production line. I have heard nothing on Canadian production or any attempt to attract such a thing.

Lastly on the list we have the first parts of the defence industrial policy. I have heard it would come in October, but I do not know whether it would be a separate thing or a collection of policies tied into the fall budget itself.

Minister Joly spoke about it briefly to media two weeks ago. You can read my report on it here. What has been laid out is that the policy will not be one concrete measure or strategy but instead a collection of short, medium, and long-term policies, mandates, and directives that will all come together to form one concrete policy. It will be a phased approach taken over time.

Some of these changes have already begun. We have already heard extensively the last few weeks about the government giving the BDC a new mandate to support companies looking to expand the defence industrial base by expanding funding pathways and opening up new opportunities for BDC to support defence investments.

BDC has always been a hesitant player in the defence ecosystem and has notoriously been very unwilling to support defence startups. There has always been a harsh view from BDC toward defence startups. It has been a common complaint I heard throughout the last few months, given BDC Ventures remains the largest VC firm in Canada.

Their apprehension to supporting the defence sector has been a hindrance to Canada’s many defence SMEs, many of whom already struggle to stay afloat, let alone find the financial vehicles to support R\&D and expansion. This is especially true when there is active incentive to look for easier, more extensive funding options down south.

It is a competition and should be treated as such but I digress. The minister also spoke about working more closely with National Research Council and universities to expand R\&D related to defence and dual-use technologies.

The Canadian Space Agency has also been given a new mandate to support defence-related activities and expand cooperation with CAF and industry on defence and dual-use infrastructure. This is also a positive step in the right direction as, until now, cooperation between the CSA and CAF has been described as difficult and overly complex.

It has been a common complaint I have seen from those working in the space domain. This new mandate sets the stage to fix a lot of those current issues regarding the lack of proper communication and alignment of priorities, especially at a time when space-related activities and projects are quickly heating up.

These are the short-term changes that can be done quickly and start the course of change. The next phase, which we will see in October, will likely be focused on creating new investment vehicles for building the defence industrial policy.

This could include new funding for BDC to support new defence investments, as well as new support measures related to things like critical minerals. I would also, as I said before, love to see the Carney government unlock the power of flow-through shares to help support defence-related expansions.

That might come separately or it could all be in the fall budget. We have to wait and see. However something is confirmed to be coming in October. That has already been confirmed now through Minister Joly.

The last thing is LUV Phase I finally dropping documents. That has long been planned for the fall, and while I do not have a date I suspect we will see them drop before the fall budget. Phase II of LUV, the one people mostly care about, will not see anything until next year.

These are all the things I have heard are coming. It certainly is a lot, and I suspect many of them will come in quick succession. That means another few weeks of a very busy Noah. I also have many plans for the end of September, so if anyone with authority is listening to this, please schedule nothing for the third and fourth week of September or I might cry.

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It might not be all though

I want to highlight that while I have not heard anything, there might be more announcements that could end up coming in this period. The one big one is additional LAV and ACSV. We already know that 190 new ACSV had been approved by cabinet at the end of June and I would not be shocked to see it brought up during restructuring announcements.

I also would not be surprised to see something regarding IFM. I hear they are trying to get through the project quickly, and that might include an RFP this fall. That one is a bit more of a long shot but I did want to highlight it.

Maybe there will be other things announced. Uplift, the SHORAD UOR, is also supposed to be announced this year or early next before we move to enduring. That was at least the plan although I suspect it will not be until next year that we hear about it.

If they did have it in their back pocket, an announcement could come as part of a large purchase announcement along with ACSV and HIMARS. That is a very high maybe though.

A few things also come after the fall budget by a week or so. Carney will be traveling to South Korea for the APEC forum from October 31 to November 1. That is when it is expected he will visit Hanwha’s Geoje Shipyard and maybe even take a sail in a KSS-III. I will be very jealous if he does.

That just misses our cutoff but only by a little, so I do not count it but wanted to highlight it happening. The point here is that a lot will be coming back to back, and for those of you who cover this stuff as well you should be prepared for it to come fast and hard.

We have had these talks of urgency recently. A lot of them. We all know there is a ticking clock that is slowly getting us to midnight. That could come a lot quicker than many people expect. The fact is we do lack a lot of the time we have taken for granted the last two decades.

From a personal note this stretch will be the third rush period since June. I have measured urgency not by what is said but how busy I have been. I did the EU and NATO summits back to back. I did the stretch of European trips the last two weeks. I will be covering all these announcements and events as they come within a potential one-month stretch.

This is on top of the two percent announcement, multiple agreements signed with secondary partners like Indonesia, Ukraine, and the Philippines. We have had multiple major contract signings this year already with FACT, Enhanced Recovery Capability, and RCN ISTAR.

If I compiled everything of interest and note into a list you would be shocked. I should really do that, I might if you want it. I see so many speak of urgency, speak of things needing to be done. I see so many who do not seem to keep track try and preach about how things need to be done.

That is not everywhere. There is much I criticize about the slowness despite the sense of urgency. I do not see that in the defence department. You might not be happy with the speed of things. I think there needs to be work done. There are departments where I want to see things done quicker, such as on the critical minerals and infrastructure fronts.

However anyone saying there is no urgency, still no sense of direction. To those that say nothing is being done I have to say I do not see that. My hands do not feel that. I see the urgency. I feel it. I can feel it in how much work I have had to do the last four months.

We used to have quiet periods, stretches, sometimes months of little to no news. Now we are getting things almost weekly. Defence is a constant topic in government, a constant priority and while many might not see the work being done, I do.

I see it in tough choices being made. I see it in people trying to rush through projects. I see it in the sense of priority and haste people are speaking with. There has been a flip, one that goes beyond announcements and press releases. It is like a switch has been flipped and the red light is on.

There are still areas of fault. We still have issues getting the equipment we need. The current UOR system is still a broken mess that can take three years to deliver things despite being an urgent pathway. We still struggle with access to spare parts that funding alone will not fix, and needs some form of urgent intervention to start tackling backlogs that are now years ahead.

However I try to be positive and hopeful, and we have to recognize that we will never get perfect. These are issues I will still criticize, but their existence does not negate or rule out what has been done and what is being done, even if we argue priorities are wrong, certainly I have with things like the fighter review.

That is one thing that bugs me in a lot of reporting. There can be no wins and losses together. There has to almost always be an absolute. If there is a sense of slowness or lack in some department then all the good is for nothing. Similarly some take this too far, when toxic positivity and acceptance becomes a mask for hiding or downplaying the continued issues or lack of work in other areas.

It is something I have noticed the last month especially, and something that annoys me deeply. It does not foster conversation. It does not create interest. It does not spark debate. All it does is create feelings of disappointment and anger, or alternatively a fake idealism where one does not push for more that can be done and accepts anything given as good enough.

Truth is always in the middle. The government is moving with urgency and making positive steps at a pace we have not seen in a long time. It also needs to work harder on other fronts and start making the tough choices and legislative changes to start breaking down the fundamental issues. Issues that have existed for decades, through multiple reforms and attempts to squash them.

That is not easy, but that is no excuse to not try. That also means doing the one thing Canadians hate more than anything, taking risks. The silent boogeyman of many of our issues. The current mentality on risk, where effort is focused on absolute minimization and promoting the path of least trouble, needs to be broken before a lot of these things can come true, and in turn for us to unlock the full potential of the massive amount of new funding being pumped into defence.

Until that point though we can be excited for a busy and eventful September. I also have a lot in the works that I hope I can soon speak more of in the next week or so. Things even more fun than all of this.