This is an update from a previous piece from last year. A lot has changed since then, and a lot of things I should bring up are I believe needed. I have not done a repost in a long time, try to avoid it. In this case though I think it is valuable to get it out there.
Canada is undergoing one of its largest expansions in domestic space capacity possibly ever. We have done extensive dives in recent weeks, such as on MDA and Lightspeed, that go more in depth on specific companies and projects.
And there are many of them… In the last year, Canada has been active in building out this foundation, far more than I expected. This includes government movement, but also some private accomplishments. Among these include:
Multiple new contracts to support the SpaceLEO Initiative to C-CORE, Kepler, Galaxia, and the University of Victoria
The launching of the Launch the North challenge to support a Canadian domestic launch capability. This should hopefully be releasing results soon.
Continued advancement of the Ground-Based segment of SofS 2 with a new contract to MDA
Advancement on ESCP-P through new contracts to utilize Telesat’s future Lightspeed network
A new $40 million contract awarded to NorthStar to secure additional space awareness capacity
Billions of dollars in space investment has been advanced by this government, with $20+ billion planned to be spent within the next 20 years on space-based capabilities. Several projects are planned to be advanced in the next year, including the four worldwide satcom projects, a contract award for the Space-Based Optical Capability coming, and DESSP heading to limited tendering.
Rarely has a government put this much backing and effort; not since the 60s and 70s have we seen such a massive scale of investment and support. Of course, the Canadian space industry has been marked since last year as one of the key high-end industries that the Federal government plans to invest in both commercially and as part of the Defence Industrial Strategy.
Canada has always punched above its weight here. It was Canada that put the first domestic communications satellite into space with Anik-1. In fact, the Anik series would accomplish many firsts, such as being the world’s first dual-band communications satellite with Anik-B. Canada was the third country to send a domestic satellite into space with Alouette-I.
We have been a player in space from the start. We have been actively involved in many of humanity’s monumental moments among the stars. Yet, we have allowed ourselves to slip at a time when space is becoming more contested, and space-based assets are becoming more valuable.
Our adversaries, including Russia and China, but increasingly regional actors, now have their own ASAT capabilities—sophisticated systems able to target large portions of our and our allies’ constellations. These capabilities, from ground-based interceptors and laser systems to space-based offensive platforms, will only get better and increase in scale as the years go on.
That’s why having a domestic capability in space is so critical. We already see allies, such as the United States, struggling to keep up with demand for both government and commercial launches. Many others are in similar situations. We do not have the collective launch capability to support each other.
We are expanding across the board. Norway’s Andøya Space is looking for new launch platforms, likely including new American launches. SaxaVord is expanding capacity, as is Esrange. We’re seeing massive EU initiatives coming to head, such as the IRIS² Constellation and projects funded under things like Horizon Europe and CEF. That still isn’t enough though, and that message has been made clear to many of us over the last year. Capacity will remain limited to those of us outside the American and EU ecosystems. Now imagine that in a conflict scenario, where that capacity would be further strained.
That means Canada—the one G7 country without a domestic launch capability—would be the first to be squeezed out. There wouldn’t be much choice, as allies will also need to deal with increasing demand for space-based assets combined with replacing inevitable losses.
The role of space is growing, and new concepts are rapidly being thought up and developed at speeds we haven’t seen in decades. This is a trend that everyone is experiencing, and one we need to act fast to stay on top of.
From pen to orbit, Canada needs the ability to design, develop, build, and launch various classes of satellites into orbit across LEO, MEO, and GEO. There is no way around this. There is no debate in my eyes. You either have it, or you risk losing your space-based capabilities in conflict—capabilities vital for the modern battlespace.
It does require those extra supports. It requires setting the foundation for these kinds of extreme-risk industries to form. Our own risk-averse nature as Canadians comes up in a lot of things. It’s a generational issue that won’t easily be fixed by any one person or group, certainly not in a single generation.
That also means we need the proper plan in place to turn Canada into an international partner in the space-launch sector. You need the backing and regulations in place to foster launches from Canada.
You do need to start somewhere, and this feels like one of those industries where you have to take that risk and struggle—where you have to take that leap simply because of how critically vital it is to our national security. You can’t afford not to have these things available, and no matter the urgency, they take a long time to develop.
So, to have a clear pathway in place to translate this into permanent capabilities, to have proper follow-up, good follow-up in my book, to go beyond small-launch is great in my opinion. That comes from the next phase of Launch the North, which will focus on medium-launch.
It also comes from having robust agreements and partnerships in place, such as finding space to share with allied companies in providing a launching platform for them. Companies like Isar Aerospace from Germany, who are committed to supporting a Canadian launch capability through their partnership with Maritime Launch. Isar just reached orbit today, as many of you probably saw in your emails! Then there is Innospace exploring Canada, Canada’s accession to NATO STARLIFT, and the introduction of the Canadian Space Launch Act.
All of these are vital to not only rapidly building capacity, but setting the stage for Canada to move toward the internationalization of our launch capacity. You cannot do medium-launch alone. You cannot support the industry off of Canadian demand alone. You need to have other customers or it isn’t economically viable. This can’t survive off government contracts.
There is money here. There are many new players you will see pop up, serious players, especially once medium-launch is on the table. You will see people step up, and for a brief moment we’re going to go through a big honeymoon.
However, there are still gaps, serious gaps. There are gaps in the testing and research facilities needed by SMEs to properly develop their concepts. There is a lack of available suppliers for many of the specialized and complex components that go into launch vehicles. There is a lack of skilled personnel in the workforce, and a shortage of university rocketry programs that creates a bottleneck of available talent to spread around.
All of that can be fixed, some easier than others, and a lot of capacity will come from places that you don’t expect, like the oil and gas industry and its supply chains. It’s going to be a sharp, hard curve to get to the place we need to be to have a true, independent space industry.
However, it isn’t impossible. We are making progress, quite rapidly. We have legislation, we’re putting money towards things, we’re slowly building up that industry, and it is fantastic. Baby steps… there is still much to worry about, however this is something to be excited about.
We are executing the largest space-based expansion in our history. For the CAF, that includes new space-specific trades. That includes a massive expansion of the CAF’s space enterprise that would see it grow to be larger in personnel than the CSA. That’s a second, fully-capable space ecosystem comprising well over a thousand individuals, hopefully with expanded facilities to match!
That needs to be backed by an ecosystem that can support Canada above and beyond what allies can provide. It means an ecosystem that isn’t just satellites and launch sites, but the proper capacity to utilize it to potential, to create a sovereign launch capacity that serves beyond peace time.
I believe we can get there, but it requires acknowledgement of difficulty, that it will be expensive and we will see failures in our quest to get there. That comes with everyone. We would not be the masters of space, who would pull this off without difficulty. We need the cross-party support across government to see this succeed. We can’t afford anything else, because the moment we deviate is the moment we fall off the path for success. We have a chance now, and truthfully I don’t think we’ll get another. It truly is now or never. I just hope we have the ambition to reach it, as our predecessors did before us.
We’ve built a world-class industry before, we can do it again