Are The Snowbirds Dead? (Not Yet)

Noah Note

I wasn't planning on talking about this today, but I did wanna jump in a bit given the news today. For those of you whom have not seen, we've had a bit of a stur today regarding Canada’s famous Snowbirds, and the rumors of their demise. It started at question period today with Conservative MP Fraser Tolmie of Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan raises concerns over the lack of scheduling for next year.

To quote my friends at the Canadian Press:

Conservative MP Fraser Tolmie raised the issue in question period earlier Thursday, saying air shows across North America are "quietly being told" they cannot book the Snowbirds for events in 2027 and that this summer will be their final season.

Tolmie, the MP for Moose Jaw, Sask., where the Snowbirds are based, said in a scrum before question period that it's time to get the ball rolling on a replacement fleet contract and "save our Snowbirds."

"This is completely unacceptable at a time when we're being challenged with regards to our identity and our nationhood, that we're going to ground an ... iconic symbol that represents unity," Tolmie told reporters in the House foyer.

"We like cold beer here, we like maple syrup and we put gravy on our fries and cheese ...This is the time we should be flying our symbols and holding close to our hearts things that define us as Canadians."

Along with this statement, Shadow Minister of National Defence Bezan has also been active on social media today trying to get Save Our Snowbirds off the ground in the middle of this seeming controversy. Funny enough, I had reached out to the DND for a statement on the Snowbird Aircraft Replacement Project (SARP) earlier this week for an update; good timing.

As of now, there are two things you need to know. There is SARP, the replacement, and TLE2020+, the actual Tutor modernization project. TLE2020+ was designed to extend the operational life of the CT-114 Tutor to 2030, where it was hoped a replacement would be available.

The project was set for FOC next year; however, delays and issues with modernizing the sixty-year-old Tutors, because they're bloody ancient, have potentially delayed that indefinitely. It has not been an easy process for L3 or IMP to try and get the fleet to last another four years.

SARP, for what it is worth, has been a long, ongoing process. The first attempt to replace the fleet started in 2002, when I was a literal baby. Attempts to replace the fleet have been met with constant failure, extensions, and desperate attempts to keep the fleet going, each time promising to only delay just enough for a replacement to be bought. 2002 stalled out, the attempt in the early 2010s ran into a crash budget, and our latest attempt has been slow and delayed time and again.

Evidently, you would think we would have tied the replacement into FFLIT, like many others, but no. We didn't. We have SARP, a long-delayed, long-stalled program. Luckily, Minister McGuinty did provide an update today, with a new date set for some information.

To quote:

“On May 19, I will be in Moose Jaw to provide updates on the future of the Canadian Forces Snowbirds.

The Royal Canadian Air Force is incredibly proud of the women and men who, for decades, have represented the Canadian Armed Forces with pride at airshows across North America and around the world.

Canadians can rest assured that they will be able to enjoy the Iconic Snowbird formation for generations to come.”

If you remember a while ago, we mentioned that SARP was sorta in the air. The project has been lagging in the identification phase for a long while now with little progress. We can almost certainly expect there to be a SARP update here, but what is it? I don't know. Multiple options have been discussed, and as I know, none selected.

An extension is impossible. No matter what, we are likely, unless they go with the option of acquiring a used platform as a stopgap, which was an option, to see the Snowbirds shelved before a replacement arrives. I don't think the fleet will last that long now.

In fact, I hope they shelve them. I think it's for the better to shelve for a few years than continue to put those poor Tutors to suffer. That's a controversial take, I know, but the fact is that the Snowbirds in their current state are a great team, but the Tutors are not lasting. They are held by hope and prayers.

I would rather see them peter out and restart in a few years than another accident, let me say that. That is the risk we maintain with the current fleet if we try to hold out until 2030. Other options on the table include tying it to the FFLIT order, which is expected to downselect a platform by the end of the summer.

That is the option I prefer, and the simplest option on the table. Is that the plan? Maybe. Again, several have been on the table a while. To me, it would be for the best to follow as others do, and in this case that is to maintain commonality with the jet trainer fleet.

That's just me. I think it's simple. It should be. It should have been done two decades ago, but sadly not. By this point, it is a consequence of our own making. We have had a project on the books a quarter of a century to replace the Tutors. The fact it hasn't happened is a national effort that everyone should be ashamed of.

Those poor Tutors should be resting in museums, not dragged out and torn apart to keep them flying for a few, minuscule years. To me, it is cruel. Hopefully, we get some actual details, and not just another SARP reannouncement.