Canada Would Get Twelve Submarines By 2042: TKMS CEO Oliver Burkhard

Noah Note

With CPSP now in the negotiations phase, more info is slowly coming out regarding some of the details of Canada’s future submarine fleet. Today, TKMS CEO Oliver Burkhard has given up probably our most concrete look at TKMS's proposed Canadian delivery schedule to date while speaking on the Table Today podcast.

For TKMS, the delivery schedule has always been the hardest thing about their bid, with a significant order backlog, some rough early timelines pushing deliveries primarily past 2036, and a Hanwha who is slowly entering a period of slow submarine construction in between the end of the KSS-III Batch II and future KSS-IV and nuclear subs.

It was among the weaker areas that the company could previously compete, saved in the final days by the Norwegian and German promise to both give up a hull each from their own order books to get Canada four subs by 2036. This was further revised down to 2034 with current capacity.

As of Monday, when the decision was announced and the 2034 date first mentioned, we've been left with little info to go off what the full timeline would look like.

Admittedly, we didn't get much of that here either, but we did get a few new proposed details. Speaking with host Michael Bröcker, Burkhard confirmed that the final Canadian Patrol Submarine is now expected to deliver in 2042, originally early forties in his words, before correcting himself to the specific year.

Working backwards from the four boats promised in 2034, that gives us a fairly good picture of the later half of the program. After the first four, TKMS will deliver eight subs over eight years, or roughly one Canadian Patrol Submarine per year once the initial batch is delivered.

Notably, it now lands TKMS at the same 2042 finish line Hanwha had been offering for the longest time, a timeline that TKMS had previously been hesitant to match publicly up until the last two months, though I understand the 2036 date before was on the table for several months.

As always, some things just aren't mentioned publicly, though for such a common question, perhaps the most common that they had been asked by most of the media, rapidly shifting the timelines in the final months of the project feels like something notable to mention if it has been on the table a long while.

That is how some companies work, mind you. I, of course, do not know the whole story, other than that the timeline was impressive and both the Navy and Government were confident in it. Being able to confirm that, though, is a significant shift in previous analysis we have done for the program, as we have commonly stood that Hanwha could and would deliver quicker.

To go further into that, Mr. Burkhard was also keen to head off the capacity question. He states that with the investments already made at Kiel and Wismar, TKMS can fulfill its entire current order book, Canada included, within promised timelines.

As a proof point, he noted that boat four of the German-Norwegian order begins production within days. It's a notably firmer statement than the hedged language we were getting even a few months ago, but does match with what we have been able to determine about TKMS's ongoing capacity.

Kiel itself has recently undergone a massive €250 million expansion, the centerpiece of which is their new state-of-the-art submarine production hall, a massive eight-bay complex designed to construct the next generation of submarines like the 212CD. According to the company, these new facilities could help shave more than 20% off the pure construction timeline for each boat.

Along with this new main hall, the company has also invested in a second dedicated outfitting line, a comprehensively modernized service hall designed strictly to handle Mid-Life Upgrades (MLUs), and a new, high-capacity shiplift and transfer system capable of handling the increased tonnage of the next-generation submarines. Concurrently, the company is investing over €200 million to bring the Wismar facility up to standard, allowing it to begin construction of both surface vessels and submarines. With this addition, plus recent upgrades at TKMS's yard in Kiel, the company is aiming for full operations to commence by 2029.

When both yards are fully operational, TKMS should have the capacity to deliver around four subs per year. I'm looking high with 10 submarines under various forms of construction between both yards. Kiel can do, as I remember, about 6-8 at any given time. Wismar is aiming for four.

Kiel, as I know, can deliver about two to three per year, with the caveat that it includes subs outside the 212CD family. When fully operational, Wismar will have a capacity likely around one, maybe two per year. That gives us that around four to maybe five per year that could be delivered.

The big capacity crunch is up to the 2035 period, when the Israeli and Singapore orders close out. The first Dakar is 2031 and Invincible #5 drops in 2034. Realistically, both are done by 2035/2036, right at the time we move to a boat-a-year timeframe.

So, the first four delivered before 2035 is actually the big critical period. That is where the highest risk factor is. We have two slots that are being reportedly given to us, one each from Norway and Germany. We still don't know which slots those will be.

That will be a big tell to show how things develop. German #1 is supposed to come around 2031, and Norwegian #2 around 2030. Those are the ones a lot of people I find assume; I have zero proof. Hull #4 starts construction any day now; that will be available as well in the timeframe. Hull #5 cuts it to 2033 for delivery.

I assume "by 2034" here is by the end of 2034, not the beginning. That provides a surprising amount of flexibility. We have the presser giving the first as early as 2033. Whether beginning or end here matters. That means to me that any of the first five Kiel hulls are at play, with the sixth hull cutting really close depending on the interpretation of that 2034 date to the first four.

The current delivery timeline is ~6 years, which I imagine will likely compress in later hulls as the yard gets more experience working on the 212CD and efficiency is found, as usually is the case in these things. So, 5-6 years is the construction time we're gonna use as a base.

BUT WAIT. There is a factor here, and that is Wismar. Under the current plan, components manufacturing at Wismar is set to begin later this year, but the actual hull laying for a 212CD at this time is a bit open-ended. The plan is before 2029. I have seen timeline slides for 2027, but have not got confirmation before.

Utilizing Kiel, though, we can roughly suspect that any of the five hulls could be first at a 2033 date. I would even say hull #5 as the first is unlikely, and I don't see the first Norwegian. That does leave German #1, Norwegian #2, or Norwegian #3 as the likely candidates, at least for the first hull.

For Wismar, I have heard, but can't confirm, that two subs in the 2034 period is possible, so that is a factor in itself. In total, that leaves about 6-8 Type 212CDs delivered by the end of 2034.

The other number here, and perhaps more important, is starts. When do subs start construction? We do now have full timelines for the 212CD, but it is around one hull a year right now. I expect that timeline will be cut in the coming years. So, on top of the first two committed, we would also be looking at needing two additional hulls. Two of those go to Norway and Germany, respectively, as theirs.

That isn't accounting for the fact that Norway has hard timelines as well for its fleet, which is already seeing sacrifice with the first slot. If we wanted to work off this schedule, there would need to be additional slots given, which is very unlikely.

The second option is that Wismar steps up, and that two number is accurate. That adds another boat each to the production calendar, which significantly relieves pressure. Wismar in 2029 COULD add a boat to 2034 if it gets to five years, but I ain't ready to say that. Likely it falls to the 2035+ period when they deliver. I also imagine that capacity there goes to Norway and Germany to backfill their sacrificed slots.

Wismar at capacity can deliver post 2035, which is where things start to smooth, and maybe thats alright for Germany or Norway, I don't know. I cant say how they feel here.

Lastly is speeding up that start timeline with additional capacity. That is a strong possibility, it has been discussed, and part of wanting to add Canadian construction capacity is because demand is driving the need to both speed up construction and get starts going quicker; but because I don't know the status or construction timelines for the Dakar and Invincible-class, I can't say what capacity in Kiel is available right now.

Alternatively... Burkhard floated something we've been talking about here for a while now. TKMS does have an MOU now with Navantia to explore jointly producing submarines. He does add that such an arrangement would be up to "if the customer wants it."

He wasn't shy about that ambition either, saying the goal must be to produce even faster than what's been promised. If Navantia ever becomes overflow capacity for TKMS, that could add more dedicated capacity for additional Type 212CDs.

However, that is early stages, and its effects on the timeline now are only hypothetical. I don't see a 212CD being built in Spain. The capacity, workforce, and skillset to work on a submarine like the 212CD just isn't there in its current form. Other submarines, though? It becomes more open.

All of this, of course, is with the caveat that I am working off open source information, much of which is scattered and can be difficult to come by. The answer, though, could TKMS deliver four submarines to us by 2034 and keep supporting Norway and Germany? That is yes, but not working off the current schedule.

Adding Wismar adds the capacity needed to fill the gaps, as does speeding up the timeline on starts to get more than one a year. Both of which are possible. There is capacity there even with the Israeli and Singapore orders.

However, I can't say how that would look, or what could be done, because right now we don't know enough about those two to really judge, other than mid-2030s delivery. Is 2042 for the final submarine possible? Absolutely. No doubt with planned capacity. There is a big freeing up of capacity coming in 2035 and such that helps relieve pressure.

The big problem, as it stands, is that initial four. We also don't know how far Norway and Germany are willing to hold out. That will come with negotiations. Wismar adds at leasta few likely for delivery in 2035/2026. If they can get two more out of it before 2034, either through starting construction or utilizing the yard to help speed up construction and starts? Then we are fairly golden on most fronts. We can squeeze things in very tight, but without requiring too much from Kiel.

The thing is it all has to come together. It all needs to match. We need more than one a year, really, to fit that. That is possible if capacity can be found and Wismar can haul ass. I can't speak on Kiel capacity. I can't say if there are slots there to exploit. We also don't know yet what an updated delivery schedule might look like, and how far Norway or Germany might stretch timelines.

I did try my best with the timelines lol. We know fairly well that we're getting one a year from Kiel starting in 2029, but the point here is that the delivery timelines, from what I can see and I can tell, are possible. It is feasible. We just gotta get those first four situated. Getting them situated fixes a lot of this.

In the meantime, we wait, see negotiations. I will try to ask the TKMS team again. Maybe they can lecture me on their capacity a bit lol. They can be very talkative if you get them going. There are pathways here. They are viable, but what one will be taken? I can't say. We will gopwfully get a detaoled timeline, or perhaps a better understanding of how things will work in the coming months.