Ain’t that the truth. Either way we are gonna get shiny new subs and can look forward to your thoughts on the decision. I think I’m just as excited about your article as I am about the decision. It’s a biggie. I hope you’ve got lots of ink in that pen of yours. Go time at last.
It better be the KSS-III if we're serious about defense. If they choose 212CD then the Liberals once again will have chosen political points over substance, as the first of class will be retired before we get the 12th boat and will never have enough submarines to operate one on each coast simultaneously.
Hey Kevin…only chance is for Fuhr to announce surprise order for 4 KSS iii (option for more) with reduced industrial package with 1 base all delivered by 2035. Tkms is the winner overall with the full order and Hanwha gets its foot in the door. This get 8 subs combined delivered by 2036. It’s the only semi-plausible way. Long shot thou. Fingers crossed
Can't see it happening though. Now that media stations are leaking a TKMS win with no timelines available for delivery of the following 8 submarines it is very likely Canada will never see 12 active duty submarines on its roster at one time, even with a full 12 ordered. Like I said Liberals are always politics and perception over substance. This IMO is a sad day as we will live with the wrong choice made here for the next 40 years. There will probably be a delay of 3 to 4 years after the initial 4 before TKMS will start to build our 5th Submarine as it back fills the German and Norwegian order slots given up for our first 4, IF we get them in time... TKMS has a history of delivering late and over budget which is the complete opposite of Hanwa that almost always delivers on time and within budget.. So very disappointing Carneys wish to be part of the European union is driving our purchase. Never should Canada be in that group where sovereign decisions are relinquished to a foreign entity.
I hope that turns to be overly pessimistic but I fear u may be correct. Im an optimist even thou my scenario is a pure Hail Mary to get us some Korean boats. I’m out of ideas. It’s not over til it’s over. Hold on buddy.
Assuming that the 212CD is selected, I am extremely pleased to see the coalescing in NATO of future Type 26-family ASW platform operators (Canada, UK, Norway) and 212CD operators (Canada, Norway, Germany), with the UK also operating its SSN and SSBN fleet. This presents an incredible, and unprecedented, opportunity for doctrinal development as the Type 26 trains against the 212CD and vice versa. This will let the operating countries co-develop tactics and future upgrade paths for both what is planned to be the most capable and lethal ASW platform in NATO and what is planned to be the most capable and lethal SSK platform in NATO. Add in the ability for the UK to include SSN and SSBN platforms to training and doctrinal development of both Type 26 and 212CD operators and you have a tremendous opportunity to create a continuously improving set of capabilities and tactics within a closely integrated set of navies.
For the RCN and Norwegian navies specifically, each would share both sides of the ASW/submarine training equation, including P-8s. There is already a significant connection for the training of prospective RCN sub captains: they must attend and complete the Norwegian-Dutch 'Perisher' submarine command school.
I’m endlessly impressed by how some so-called “reputable” news organisations now treat internal sources as a substitute for actually waiting for the results. Whatever happened to reporting the news instead of sprinting ahead of it and hoping reality catches up? - except for you Noah you actually respect the process.
There was a “Go Bold” video with Joey Attariwala speaking with the RCN commander for the sub fleet (methinks). He stated that three of four subs are usually in various form of maintenance, leaving one operational.
So the math says 12. Three in service at all times.
8 or 9 for sure with the remaining subs as an option to provide as much contract flexibility as possible in the event of some global meltdown. The world is a hot mess right now. But yes I think it will made clear that our intention is to acquire 12 boats. Canada will try to get the best terms possible as they should.
8 or 9 seems reasonable and you are right about the option portion. I'm worried it might be cut down to 6 of either choice and not having enough for all oceans.
We’re not gonna have enough anyways. Probably need something like 18-24 subs. I had argued elsewhere to order 8 Korean boats for the West coast and 8 German boats for the Atlantic but this mixed fleet stuff is just too complicated. 12 is a good start. A German win will not match the Koreans on delivery and will give the RCN more time to sort themselves out in terms of staffing etc if you want to look at it that way. The Koreans I think have won the battle as laid out in the requirements but lost the war as the politics of the whole damn thing are coming home to roost. I could be wrong but my gut is telling me Carney is going with the trilateral alliance and NATO geopolitcal alignment side of things. These are his people and ultimately I think that’s how this thing lands. But… I could be totally wrong and the Koreans walk away with it. Actually it’s starting to hurt my head trying to figure it all out
I'm in the same boat (no pun I (intended) on paper Korea won in my eyes. But with NATO, things tend to be a bit different. My only concern is we have an indo-pacific policy that I belive wants us to work like this with our allies over there also. I can't think of any joint military projects with an Pacific nation besides Australia with the radars. Either way I'll have my popcorn ready while watching the announcement.
We’re gonna end up in a much better place than where we started which is 1 barely operational sub. Absurd. We’re at least headed in the right direction. Don’t forget the milk duds.
For either country, a 5:10pm announcement in Halifax works out poorly. It’s either 10pm in Berlin or 5am in Seoul. On the other hand, it’s a brilliant way to not tip off the government’s decision through scheduling.
Damn…years of waiting and bam. Spoiled. We needed to be in a hyperbolic chamber to avoid. Oh well….onward and upward. I feel bad for the Koreans. Hopefully we can build on that relationship. Koreans are really impressive and brought a lot to the table.
Well, here's to looking forward to operating the Victoria class well into the 2040's as we wait for the remainder of the first 4 of the TKMS boats I suppose. Guess that's why they expanded the scope of the Victoria modernization.
Only chance is for Fuhr to announce surprise order for 4 KSS iii (option for more) with reduced industrial package with 1 base all delivered by 2035. Tkms is the winner overall with the full order and Hanwha gets its foot in the door. This get 8 subs combined delivered by 2036. It’s the only semi-plausible way. Long shot thou. Fingers crossed.
Is it wrong to hope for the Submarine announcement?
If it isn't I'm sending them a mental health bill
Ain’t that the truth. Either way we are gonna get shiny new subs and can look forward to your thoughts on the decision. I think I’m just as excited about your article as I am about the decision. It’s a biggie. I hope you’ve got lots of ink in that pen of yours. Go time at last.
An announcement in Halifax tends to point towards a Navy announcement.
It better be the KSS-III if we're serious about defense. If they choose 212CD then the Liberals once again will have chosen political points over substance, as the first of class will be retired before we get the 12th boat and will never have enough submarines to operate one on each coast simultaneously.
Hey Kevin…only chance is for Fuhr to announce surprise order for 4 KSS iii (option for more) with reduced industrial package with 1 base all delivered by 2035. Tkms is the winner overall with the full order and Hanwha gets its foot in the door. This get 8 subs combined delivered by 2036. It’s the only semi-plausible way. Long shot thou. Fingers crossed
Can't see it happening though. Now that media stations are leaking a TKMS win with no timelines available for delivery of the following 8 submarines it is very likely Canada will never see 12 active duty submarines on its roster at one time, even with a full 12 ordered. Like I said Liberals are always politics and perception over substance. This IMO is a sad day as we will live with the wrong choice made here for the next 40 years. There will probably be a delay of 3 to 4 years after the initial 4 before TKMS will start to build our 5th Submarine as it back fills the German and Norwegian order slots given up for our first 4, IF we get them in time... TKMS has a history of delivering late and over budget which is the complete opposite of Hanwa that almost always delivers on time and within budget.. So very disappointing Carneys wish to be part of the European union is driving our purchase. Never should Canada be in that group where sovereign decisions are relinquished to a foreign entity.
I hope that turns to be overly pessimistic but I fear u may be correct. Im an optimist even thou my scenario is a pure Hail Mary to get us some Korean boats. I’m out of ideas. It’s not over til it’s over. Hold on buddy.
Ok. It’s over
Assuming that the 212CD is selected, I am extremely pleased to see the coalescing in NATO of future Type 26-family ASW platform operators (Canada, UK, Norway) and 212CD operators (Canada, Norway, Germany), with the UK also operating its SSN and SSBN fleet. This presents an incredible, and unprecedented, opportunity for doctrinal development as the Type 26 trains against the 212CD and vice versa. This will let the operating countries co-develop tactics and future upgrade paths for both what is planned to be the most capable and lethal ASW platform in NATO and what is planned to be the most capable and lethal SSK platform in NATO. Add in the ability for the UK to include SSN and SSBN platforms to training and doctrinal development of both Type 26 and 212CD operators and you have a tremendous opportunity to create a continuously improving set of capabilities and tactics within a closely integrated set of navies.
For the RCN and Norwegian navies specifically, each would share both sides of the ASW/submarine training equation, including P-8s. There is already a significant connection for the training of prospective RCN sub captains: they must attend and complete the Norwegian-Dutch 'Perisher' submarine command school.
I’m endlessly impressed by how some so-called “reputable” news organisations now treat internal sources as a substitute for actually waiting for the results. Whatever happened to reporting the news instead of sprinting ahead of it and hoping reality catches up? - except for you Noah you actually respect the process.
Could Fuhr on one coast and PM on the other each with announcements indicate a mixed sub fleet?
Does anyone think we will get the full 12?
There was a “Go Bold” video with Joey Attariwala speaking with the RCN commander for the sub fleet (methinks). He stated that three of four subs are usually in various form of maintenance, leaving one operational.
So the math says 12. Three in service at all times.
I certainly hope so.
8 or 9 for sure with the remaining subs as an option to provide as much contract flexibility as possible in the event of some global meltdown. The world is a hot mess right now. But yes I think it will made clear that our intention is to acquire 12 boats. Canada will try to get the best terms possible as they should.
8 or 9 seems reasonable and you are right about the option portion. I'm worried it might be cut down to 6 of either choice and not having enough for all oceans.
We’re not gonna have enough anyways. Probably need something like 18-24 subs. I had argued elsewhere to order 8 Korean boats for the West coast and 8 German boats for the Atlantic but this mixed fleet stuff is just too complicated. 12 is a good start. A German win will not match the Koreans on delivery and will give the RCN more time to sort themselves out in terms of staffing etc if you want to look at it that way. The Koreans I think have won the battle as laid out in the requirements but lost the war as the politics of the whole damn thing are coming home to roost. I could be wrong but my gut is telling me Carney is going with the trilateral alliance and NATO geopolitcal alignment side of things. These are his people and ultimately I think that’s how this thing lands. But… I could be totally wrong and the Koreans walk away with it. Actually it’s starting to hurt my head trying to figure it all out
I'm in the same boat (no pun I (intended) on paper Korea won in my eyes. But with NATO, things tend to be a bit different. My only concern is we have an indo-pacific policy that I belive wants us to work like this with our allies over there also. I can't think of any joint military projects with an Pacific nation besides Australia with the radars. Either way I'll have my popcorn ready while watching the announcement.
We’re gonna end up in a much better place than where we started which is 1 barely operational sub. Absurd. We’re at least headed in the right direction. Don’t forget the milk duds.
For either country, a 5:10pm announcement in Halifax works out poorly. It’s either 10pm in Berlin or 5am in Seoul. On the other hand, it’s a brilliant way to not tip off the government’s decision through scheduling.
Noah….if you don’t want to be spoiled today then stay away from all media sources until you watch the announcement. That includes here.
Unfortunately, people alreadh flooded me at 5AM lol
Damn…years of waiting and bam. Spoiled. We needed to be in a hyperbolic chamber to avoid. Oh well….onward and upward. I feel bad for the Koreans. Hopefully we can build on that relationship. Koreans are really impressive and brought a lot to the table.
Well, here's to looking forward to operating the Victoria class well into the 2040's as we wait for the remainder of the first 4 of the TKMS boats I suppose. Guess that's why they expanded the scope of the Victoria modernization.
Repost: Hail Mary
Only chance is for Fuhr to announce surprise order for 4 KSS iii (option for more) with reduced industrial package with 1 base all delivered by 2035. Tkms is the winner overall with the full order and Hanwha gets its foot in the door. This get 8 subs combined delivered by 2036. It’s the only semi-plausible way. Long shot thou. Fingers crossed.
Hey wouldn’t it be crazy if Fuhr announced 6 Korean subs. I know. I’ll shut up now.
Just saw this from CTV: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/carney-to-announce-decision-on-new-submarine-fleet/
CTV just announced that UT will be the submarine announcement. Take it for what it's worth.
Globe & Mail says so as well.