Random Thoughts About Projects I Don't get to Talk About, Projects People Asked About that I Forgot to Follow On, and CANSEC Announcements
Random Thoughts
I haven't done one of these in a few weeks, have I? I've been a bit too busy to collect my thoughts; a tale as old as time, I suppose. I had some of these ideas lingering though, and so I thought I would get them out of my way while things were quiet. The next few weeks will be packed, which sadly means less fun time for Noah to do stuff he wants.
Such is the life of the humble analyst! Anyway, into my deep thoughts.
There are a lot of cool projects out there that I don't get to really talk about much...
Usually, because they're either very new in the works, so there is maybe a paragraph of information available, or I just can't speak about them because I am bound to secrecy. Obviously, I won't spill those here, but it can be a bit of a bleh to have something I REALLY wanna talk about but can't because it isn't really my call.
Sometimes I debate throwing them in the rumors, but they kinda slip through without much note or fanfare. Sometimes it just isn't really worth it, or I worry about putting it in there. I used to be really concerned about rumors and getting into trouble by mentioning things.
I think that comes with the game though, especially when you're first learning. I didn't have a lot of friends who did this kinda stuff, nor a great support network despite my attempts to ask for advice. As such, I kinda played it overly safe at times because I didn't really know the expectations and what I could and couldn't say.
Anyways, enough anxiety dumping. There are a few really cool projects that are fairly minor or in their early stages that I don't think I have mentioned before:
RCAF Air-Launched Effects (RALE): Aims to provide the RCAF with a host of air-launched effectors for various platforms coming into service, including future fighters, CP8, CQ9B, and future nTACS. Effectors will be based on modular platforms with a number of customizable payloads able to support in tasks such as ISR, EW, and long-range strikes. The RFI is supposed to release this year, with IOC set for 2029/2030.
Long-Range Precision Strike (Air): Aims to acquire modern, long-range strike platforms for future RCAF platforms. While the RCAF is committed to acquiring LRASM/JASSM-ER and JSM/NSM, there is also a desire to look at future platforms, including hypersonics like MAKO or HACM, to fill this role. You won't see those until the mid-to-late 2030s.
Space-Based Moving Target Indicator (SB-MTI) project: Aims to provide Canada with a space-based microwave sensor able to detect and track moving targets such as aircraft and naval vessels from orbit. If you've heard about the P-8 debacle down south, then you know this concept. Paired with the Polar Over-The-Horizon Radar system to form NORTHWATCH, it complements future platforms like AEWC.
Just three examples of some of the cooler projects that ain't really being discussed or mentioned. I feel like this stuff though isn't built for the rumors section, and it can be hard to find places to talk about them. We have in some cases before, like with LRPS(A), but it can be very hard sometimes to bring up projects that don't have much tied to them.
So instead, I do them in a random post to get the urge out of my system lol. I haven't quite mastered how to run projects like these without sounding like the OC, where it's a line of actual info and then needless fluff; and for projects, I don't really like doing that, you know? It doesn't feel right.
Maybe these random threads are more my speed. Maybe it's a good outlet. You guys let me know. Maybe I start doing regular project update threads for stuff like this separate from rumors? How does that balance? I don't have a clue... I'll figure it out.
On another note, some projects out there were asked about and I promised to follow up...
But honestly, I just forgot it. I don't mean to lol, I promise. I just sometimes forget to follow up on projects that were asked about. If this is the case, utilize this thread to yell at me. Anyways, a few updates for you tonight:
Crossbow: A lot of you asked about what this was, and for a long time we had almost no clue. Mysteriously announced during the initial NORAD Mod package and then quickly forgotten, Crossbow kinda just existed as a sensor suite designed to complement the two Over-The-Horizon Radar projects. Anywho, Crossbow is designed to be a fleet of autonomous, modular, container systems able to be rapidly deployed across the Arctic and High North. They will be self-sustained, remote platforms able to be rapidly equipped with any number of desired sensors and systems. Not too dissimilar to what we see the likes of Dominion Dynamics doing. Contract award is set for this year, with IOC in 2029.
ALAV: We should hopefully see a new contract this year. The option for 190 more ACSV should also, hopefully, be moved on soon. That's in cabinet's hands.
Blackhawks: Still on the table as nTACS Phase I, still planned to move forward for CANSOFCOM. While a bit delayed, it still is very much going to happen as I know it.
More Chinook: Operating under the banner of Chinook Capability Expansion. It is a whole dedicated project, so very much still in the works with hopes for deliveries to commence in the 2030-2032 timeframe as I know it. Final numbers still being worked on.
Again, if you guys have more, then hit me up here I guess, or in the Q&A. Either is fine. I know follow-up can be a bit hard, and I wanna do better at it. I apologize if some of you feel I have not (no one had messaged, but I wanna be a bit proactive in apologizing).
Lastly for today, a few people are wondering what this year's CANSEC announcement will be...
Given that it won't be subs, with the expectation that's coming next month, and the fact there's always something big announced at CANSEC, it does make you wonder what could be on the docket.
There are a few people guessing; I have nothing solid on what will be announced mind you, not yet at least, but my personal expectation is that it could be a FFLIT trainer? The plan was to announce what aircraft would serve as Canada’s future jet trainer in the summer/early fall. That aligns to CANSEC, even if very early in the timescale.
It isn't the most glamorous announcement, but we did see the FACT fleet naming announcement last CANSEC, so why not follow up with the other trainer lol. Right now, the two frontrunners seem to be the Lockheed/KAI TF-50 and Leonardo M-346. I have not heard much on the T-7, enough to say it's in contention as much as the other two.
My personal opinion, given many forget that CAE has major influence as the strategic partner in the choice, is that the M-346 will ultimately be chosen. CAE already has experience with the 346 through the International Flight Training School in Italy; the 346 is already part of the interim solution training pilots through it, and Canada has committed to further integration with allies through joining the NATO Flight Training Europe (NFTE) program last year, which the 346 is well-positioned in its current role to support.
Feels like the easy solution. You know? It feels like it all lines up well, and that's usually good enough for me to make a call on it. While I don't know if the choice has been made, I wouldn't be shocked if it was one of the big CANSEC announcements.
A bit more of a hail mary option would be announcing a new Defence Policy was in the works. We know it is. We know that it will release before 2028; we just haven't seen the announcement of it officially. While I could also see it saved for the NATO Summit, capping the biggest show of the year with the announcement of a new Defence Policy would be well in line with the current government's style of major announcements.
It's not likely in my opinion, but it could be a left-field option if you wanna take a risky bet in your life. There are other risky choices; a few think an AEWC announcement is possible, but I wouldn't be as confident there. A few less-discussed projects, like Land Vehicle Crew Training System, are set to be contracted soon, so could make up minor announcements at CANSEC, but I doubt they would be the major ones.
Re CANSEC….while the juicey stuff is nice…I am curious about the CAF’s ability to absorb, train & house bodies in increased numbers.
In particular in those prev mentioned 3D printed buildings which have the potential to go up a lot quicker, easily allow for increased space between walls which sounds like it would be perfect for a short summer, arctic building season. (Fascinating technology & potentially cheaper)
Space-Based Moving Target Indicator (SB-MTI) project sounds really interesting. I'm hoping we get some global eye air frames sooner than later, and what makes SB-MTI sound so interesting is that it sounds an awful lot like the part of golden dome (am I the only one who's mind goes to showers...?) that the US seems to think makes the E7 irrelevant. Presumably CAF brass is not so sanguine, but I'd love to hear more about what they think the role of space based sensors will be in the future. I'm glad we have our own program that isn't riding the Americans coattails, but I'd like to know more about the alternative. I feel like the recent MDA press release is kind of indicative of where they are going with it, but I expect the actual satellites will be dramatically different.