The Struggles of the SME, Polar-Classes and other random thoughts

Random Thoughts

If you're reading this then it is the tail-end of Easter. I hope you all enjoyed it and this greater time of reflection. Of course as a faithful Catholic I have taken this weekend to spend time with my family and also give my fingers a needed break from writing things.

Despite that I always feel bad going more than a day without writing, so why not another week of random thoughts? You guys seemed to really enjoy me just talking about stuff, which like if you all like that than who am I to deny you? I sometimes have little tidbits to say, might as well get them out there in some way.

Again this is not a series, so don't always expect this every week. It's just one of those things where I can talk when I feel like mentioning random things. Maybe it's multiple times a week, maybe a few weeks. Who knows. If you guys REALLY like it though I will take note to write my random idea's and thoughts more.

Anyways. Let's start a bit controversial.

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Most of you who are just starting up or thinking about jumping into the defence space are probably already too late...

And you likely won't find the opportunity that might have existed just six months ago. While it might be a bit of an overstatement to say there is no room for you, the fact is that the opportunity to really jump into things has already passed; many of the opportunities that did exist have closed fast.

This isn't me trying to discourage or dismiss you. I want you to succeed. I want you to find opportunities. I want to see you make something wonderful. However, let me be the one to tell you that you are going to struggle. You are going to suffer, and if you believe that this newfound era of money and opportunity is going to lead you to success, then let me be the one to tell you it won't.

For many of the startups coming up, I don't really feel guilty. I will admit that. A lot I have seen have been what I would classify as "dual-use" companies, who primarily view defence as an easy target to expand into because they see dual-use and come to a personal conclusion that, technically, their product has uses in the CAF.

Bandages, sewing kits, hoses, washing machines. I have seen, I think, just about every product known to man be advertised at some point over the last year as 'dual-use'. It's why I despise the term in its current form. Most of the time I hear it from the industry side, it's some random company or reseller trying to claim that their product most certainly has defence applications if you count everyday goods; therefore, they should be supported with hundreds of thousands of federal dollars to support their business.

Vultures. The lot of them... I can't tell you how many I have seen come and go like beggars looking for some handout. The moment they see money flooding in, they try to find a way to exploit the system to get their piece.

They aren't who I feel sorry for. I do feel sorry for those with good intent who just don't understand the industry, what certifications they require, or who to engage with. They are ignorant, but good-hearted in their intent. In another time, they might have had a shot with proper guidance.

Those I feel sorry for are those with good intent, who know what they're doing, and who are trying their hardest to pull themselves up but just came a bit too late, took just a bit too long, or maybe made a few rookie mistakes thinking that it wouldn't hurt them too harshly.

One thing I tell people often in my time here is that the defence industry is like no other. It is inherently closed off, interpersonal, and likes it that way. People in the industry don't take to outsiders coming in. They don't trust right away. Many people in this industry come from similar backgrounds or have worked through it since they were young.

It's that part I love. I love the interpersonal feelings, the camaraderie. I love how tight-knit things can feel. Yet, it goes the opposite way as well. That is especially true for Canada, where a lot of the Defence Industrial Base and the supply chains that make it up are delegated to the Primes to forge and craft. It is they who take the lead, with mandates in hand, to form their teams, build their networks, and strengthen the second and third tiers.

Something I complained about in the DIS was how often, even amongst media and commentators, this relationship between government and industry went undiscussed. We put a lot of power as a country, even with our policies in place, into these large companies to dictate the success of others. Trickle-down effect and such...

Yet for many projects, including some that might seem new, a lot of those teams have already been forming. They form two, three, or four years in many cases before an RFI even drops. They form together from partners who have built mutual recognition and trust with each other.

For a startup, or for an SME just trying to get in, the ball isn't in the government's court for you. They might support, sure. They might provide funding, but that is only temporary. It keeps you from starving. It doesn't mean anything. It does not lead to success.

Instead, that is entrusted to your fellow companies, the Primes who sit above you. They form the teams. They help build the supply chains. They pick their champions and winners. They are what keep you alive, and they don't know you.

Especially if you're not from this industry, the CAF, or hold influence in the political machine. You are a stranger, and this industry hates strangers. It hates people who it sees as looking to make a quick win. It hates people who it feels have not earned their place.

So, they will wait for you to prove yourself. They will watch for you at every show, every event. They will watch for you at every engagement and in the news cycle. They will wait and wait until they bless you with the right to participate.

You will go to every trade show. You will give your pitch until your throat hurts. You will get every business card and handshake out of them, but in the end, there is an acknowledgement that only the strong and the special will survive. This industry will demand your blood at the altar and make you suffer; only then may you be given chances to prove your value.

It weeds out the weak and the hesitant; at least, that is one way I have heard it described. Only those who truly want to be in this industry will go through this all and come out ready to participate. Yet even at that point, if you look at the opportunities now as someone starting out? I'm sorry to tell you that they won't be there for you.

That time has passed. Those teams are already formed or being formed. If you start now, perhaps in two or three years you will be able to truly participate. If you make it. If you can keep going that long. Even then, there is no promise at the end of this, no guarantee of support.

Some of you will make it through. Many of you will not. Some of you have better chances than others—UAS as an example—however, for many of you... unless you are truly remarkable, earth-shattering even, this will be your future for the next several years.

That is how this industry works at times, and it is discouraging. Truthfully, I wish it wasn't this way. I wish there was more to go around, more work to do, and a more open system that gave you chances to do something wonderful. Sadly, that system doesn't exist at this time, and I doubt it ever truly will.

I speak a lot on the struggles of SMEs. I speak a lot on the lack of pathways and the lack of true opportunity there is. I wish I didn't; however, the truth is you will suffer trying to get into the defence industry. You will struggle with all you have. The system as it exists is designed to break you, to keep outsiders and grifters away, especially at a time like this when everyone knows money is flowing.

Sadly, as I said, the opportunity to capitalize, to truly jump in, has already passed for many looking to do so now. The system is bloated, the competition is now fierce, and many key opportunities—both for initial funding through new programs and to participate—will have passed you by.

There was a period, say March to October of last year, where there was more, where there was a chance to do more, to make a big impression fast, and to engage when news and excitement were hot. That isn't the environment anymore. That wave, that heat, has died down to its normal state.

Don't let me be the one to tell you no. If you want to prove me wrong? Do it. Make me the fool. I want you to... yet I feel someone in this circus needs to tell you that the show is already close to over, and I don't think anyone knows when the next running will be.

On a lighter note...

If anyone is going to Outlooks and has some extra booklets or stuff, there is a cute boy who is too cheap to pay CADSI who would very much like to add new material to his collection and is willing to pay a premium. I'm not saying who... but I am throwing the notice out there.

I posted this on X, but I feel the need to mention it here...

This is your reminder that a Polar-class rating is not a measure of icebreaking capability. Rather, it is a measure of structural survivability, specifically the hull's ability to withstand local ice loads and the machinery’s capacity to function in a polar environment.

Two PC 4 vessels can have very different icebreaking capabilities. Similarly, as an example, some PC 4 vessels actually perform better than some PC 3 vessels. That's why relying on PC ratings is a bit of a gross oversimplification.

Also, a Polar-class vessel is not automatically an icebreaker. There is actually a separate notation for icebreaking vessels; this is something that Peter Rybski has had to remind me of many times over the years.

I should also note that many vessels do not fall under the Polar-class rating. Only vessels contracted for construction after July 1, 2007, fall under the Polar-class designation, and some countries, such as Russia, continue to use their own system.

The Polar-class system isn't designed to be used as a ranking system. You can definitely use it as a quick comparison system, and it has value in discussions because it is still an official measure of capability, but when it comes to icebreaking? It isn't that simple.

Why is everything being teased for MK.41 integration?

Seriously. I feel like just about everything possible has been teased for MK.41 at some point over the last two years, and it makes me wonder if there is some policy or quota at Lockheed to tease more.

Like, here is a list of munitions teased or working on integration with the MK.41:

• PAC-3 MSE

• PRSM

• ASTER 15

• ASTER 30

• Future CAMM variants

• MAKO maybe?

• Tyrfing

• Barak 8

• LRASM

• STRATUS

• That British fucking ASROC

• IRIS-T

By this point, it gets a bit much to keep track of. Of course, some, like PAC-3 and future CAMM variants, are more serious in discussions than others, but I digress. It also really sucks if you're Sylver, who continues to suffer. I'm sorry also, but if ASTER EVER ends up in the MK.41, I am going to laugh my ass off because that would be just putting Sylver in the corner chair by that point.

Funny enough, you could, with all this, build a very credible European-based munitions package depending on what capabilities you're looking for. Funny future to think about…